BluRay DVD players, anyone know release dates?

[JJkizak]

What people are not aware of is how many HD's there are even at the present time. There is original HD which has been zapped by all of the broadcasters to HDV which 99.9 % of the people can't tell the difference in quality. HDV is what everyone is looking at on there tv sets---The MPEG2 data stream is how the broadcasters transmit there HD all over the place and they use MPEG2 for minimum bandwidth. Now how about HD-2k (twice the resolution of HD, HD-4K

(4 times the resolution of HD), HD-8K (8 times the resolution of HD). The data stream of HDV is 25 megs per second, HD-50 to 100 megs per sec., HD-8K about 360 megs per second. Keep in mind they are only arguing about HD right now.

What will happen when HD-8K hits the market throught the complete chain? There are camcorders now (Viper) that shoot HD-8K). Then HD-16K, then HD-500K.

Hd-100K already exists and is being used in medical instruments. If the recorders/players were manufactured by Bell Labs/Western Electric we would just purchase an add on module and everything would be honky-dory.

The greed factor has to be surpassed and I don't think that will happen.

Just read the news every day for confirmation of this.

JJK

[dragonfyr]

In reply to Scott's (IMO) rather hasty assignment of blame...

I know that I probably shouldnt reply to this, and I promise that I am not going to deal with this to any great extent, but blanket statements regarding conspiratorial control and corporate greed, etc. are simply overly simplistic.

If one wants to start a thread seriously analyzing the business models and do a SWOT & TOES analysis, etc., that would be fine. But anything less that fails to examine the various business opportunities and market models is waste of time. And that is far beyond the scope of this replay as well...

So just a few comments and I will shut up

First, layering technology is not unique to either format. And they have both announced various scalable options.

And as far as the advantage to a studio of putting the entire Simpsons catalog on one disk? Hmmm. Lets see. They have had the capability of doing this with many audio catalogs for some time now. It hasn't happened. And with the intro of DVDs very little of this occurred for many catalogs. When the entire CD and DVD formats were released, production costs were supposed to come down, and, even after losing 2 suits, the final consumer costs have not. And as companies can issue and sell individual component episodes, years, etc. of a particular recording and make more money from component sales then from the much smaller market of combined aggregated catalog sales, And since the holders of the rights to this material are in the business to make money, I am not sure where the incentive originates to support a pressing need for them to make less profit. Nor do I think that it is their responsibility to do so.

The consumer on the other hand, has the option to control their lust for some product and not buy it! They don't have the right to demand that a private producer lower there costs simply by their desire for a cheaper version. After all, you don't have to buy it! And as long as they deem a particular vehicle profitable, they are free to do this. Is it optimal? Perhaps not. But that is their business model.

Additionally, most studios don't own the processing plants. And one could make a far easier case to say that the studios don't want ANY of these formats out as they could more easily and more profitably support a copy guarded pay-per-view direct distribution model (especially with the forthcoming Internet 2) and simply by pass the cost overhead of supply chain management and distribution costs entirely! As well as minimize or eliminate sources of source capture and duplication! They could simply eliminate the hardware, save LOTS of money and simply distribute one time viewable downloads.

This argument is akin to the traders of MP3s demanding more access to the files so that they can freely dupe and share files!!!! Due you really think the Studios and music companies are behind portable MP3 players? Havent they been aggressive enough in challenging the ability to copy copyrighted material? Havent they been clear in their desires? Yeah, they want more and higher capacity devices for copying THEIR copyrighted material! Right!

And as far as there being no consumer advantages to HD DVD, I would say compatibility is a MAJOR advantage, where Blu Ray is compatible with nothing.

But I fear you are missing a MUCH larger market then the Simpsons on a disk! Recordable, archival data storage is not being driven by the Simpsons nor by what I watch at home! It is being driven by computer data storage. Ampeg has made their last tape deck, and archival data storage is moving to hard media. It has been a long time coming and it has not yet neared completion! Just because the higher packing density afforded by blue lasers has increased the capacity for storage, we have not reached the utopian end point in the data storage density road.

After all, companies are in business to make a profit. And in order to do so, they have to market and sell a product! People have to buy it! Remember your last technologically superior storage format to fail? Remember Beta? I still have a great Super Beta HiFi unit that exhibits fidelity within 1dB S/N of CDs. But Sony blew it! Just like they have been in the process of doing with BluRay (until the encouraging announcement posted today). Sony's marketing scheme sought to charge the manufacturers a licensing fee for each player built while JVC let the manufacturers use the technology free, choosing instead to place a licensing fee on EACH and EVERY tape that the consumer would pay over and over!! That combined with the longer play time of VHS sunk Beta!

And this same flawed marketing scheme of Sonys, the same one that sunk Beta is again being repeated by Sony! Superior technology combined with brain dead market strategies do not make for a big success!

Todays announcement by Sony is a major step, and one that I hope leads to a more unified market featuring the strengths and advantages of both technologies.

But simply declaring the issue a matter of "studio greed" or "corporate politics is at best overly simplistic if not in many ways simply wrong.

So, present a business model where everyone has an incentive and not simply a model where one group sanctimoniously declares their interests paramount at the expense of others' interests. Then you might have a case.

[dragonfyr]

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On 4/13/2005 7:09:18 PM JJKIZAK wrote:

What people are not aware of is how many HD's there are even at the present time. ...

If the recorders/players were manufactured by Bell Labs/Western Electric we would just purchase an add on module and everything would be honky-dory.

The greed factor has to be surpassed and I don't think that will happen.

Just read the news every day for confirmation of this.

JJK

----------------

Wow! What assumptions, and unfortunately I agree with none of them!

The greed factor!? You have just made both a case for locating manufacturing and services in the lower cost markets such as is employed in the strategy called off shoring, and by big retailers such as Wal-Mart in an effort to bring the lowest cost to market, and at the same time you suggest that one company manufacture them in order to increase economies of scale by virtue of a monopolistic model.

And that is a solution for greed!

Sorry, but there are umpteen competing formats! MPeg4 has been a terrific success , not to mention others such as DIVX, etc.

And you can have HD10000000000000000000000. So you propose downloading this? In how many years using existing technologies? And with increased resolution all you do is shrink the media relative to the contents. So you are back where we started, but with Regis and the Simpsons in absolutely incredible accuracy (and why the hell do you need a cartoon with such lame artistic quality of the Simpsons in hi-def? Its not exactly Leonardos work! Talk about being limited by the program source!!!!! And now the contents totally fill your new 100 terabyte ultraviolet laser disk.

You haven't addressed a single market issue that exists today. You have simply addressed data storage density while proposing a new monopolistic strategy that attacks "greed".

I fear the real greed in this example doesn't exist in the corporations. This is a classic case of simply demanding classically diametrically opposed factors and blaming others for not solving them. You create a can't win scenario with is a classic "let's bash Wal-Mart" and at the same time complain about "higher prices". You want your cake and to eat it too. not to mention an imposed format (by whom???) and a new monopoly in your centrally planned economy.

I would prefer to let the chaos of the free market decide.

[JJkizak]

dragonfyr:

I will make it easier for you to understand. BluRay will loose. HD-DVD will win. A standard DVD production line (there are many) can be converted to produce HD-DVD's in 15 minutes. BluRay has no production lines and the first one being built by Sony will cost over 1 billion dollars. Sony is saying they can reduce the production cost of a single disc to be almost as cheap as the HD-DVD disc. The bean counters have already wrapped it up to a done deal. And by the way the quality of the playback on the two types of discs is the same. The only difference is the capacity.

JJK

[damonrpayne]

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On 4/14/2005 8:42:20 AM JJKIZAK wrote:

dragonfyr:

I will make it easier for you to understand. BluRay will loose. HD-DVD will win. A standard DVD production line (there are many) can be converted to produce HD-DVD's in 15 minutes. BluRay has no production lines and the first one being built by Sony will cost over 1 billion dollars. Sony is saying they can reduce the production cost of a single disc to be almost as cheap as the HD-DVD disc. The bean counters have already wrapped it up to a done deal. And by the way the quality of the playback on the two types of discs is the same. The only difference is the capacity.

JJK

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I think that you may be right, but there are other factors to consider. Sony is going to make bluray discs for the PS3 regardless of what happens in the home entertainment market. Apple computers and others in the PC world are behind it as well. I think there will be a fight, the winner will be the one who makes the best corporate deals and does the better job marketing this to the consumer.

[JJkizak]

I failed to mention that my predictions are usually wrong.

JJK

[dragonfyr]

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On 4/14/2005 8:42:20 AM JJKIZAK wrote:

dragonfyr:

I will make it easier for you to understand. BluRay will loose. HD-DVD will win. A standard DVD production line (there are many) can be converted to produce HD-DVD's in 15 minutes. BluRay has no production lines and the first one being built by Sony will cost over 1 billion dollars. Sony is saying they can reduce the production cost of a single disc to be almost as cheap as the HD-DVD disc. The bean counters have already wrapped it up to a done deal. And by the way the quality of the playback on the two types of discs is the same. The only difference is the capacity.

JJK

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Actually, as things stand, I quite agree for a number of reasons. And as my past posts were arguing for HD-DVD against the claims that BluRay deserved to dominate, I am not sure how I became anti HD-DVD. But anyway...

While I have watched BluRay with great anticipation for 3 years now, only to not see it emerge on the market to any meaningful degree, and to see the substantial groundswell behind HDDVD in a relatively short time, coupled with it's strategic advantages of being compatible with existing formats and all that entails, plus Sony's heretofore persistence in repeating the same licensing/marketing error that ultimately doomed consumer Beta (while it owned the commercial/pro market) seems to all but insure HD DVD's success.

And I support competition as good for both price and innovation. And just as the +R formats for CD & DVD are ideal for data as finishing is not required, the -R continue to have greater compatibility with consumer players and still dominate.

Thus the announcement from Sony posted yesterday is an encouraging sign that May possibly (although I have never been one to bet on the 'most optimistic' possibility!!) result in advantages of both technologies being incorporated into a final format. But I am not holding my breath. Still, the fact that the idea is being publicly expressed is in itself a pretty momentous occassion!

My issue was not with the format. My issue is primarily with the overly simplistic pronouncement blaming "greed" (which ranks right up there with blaming the great amorphous "they", as in "When are THEY going to..."))and the business model proposing that one company be given the rights of production in some monopolistic model. That is not a reasonable solution in my book, although abstractly and without regard to real market forces I can see how the idea could seem attractive.

But in any event, this "greed" factor you mention should drive the format(s) to market sooner rather then later. As they certainly aren't making much money by keeping it unavailable for sale!

[damonrpayne]

I wholeheartedly agree that its time to bring something to market. I'll pay the price for being an early adoptor. In some other industries (like PC games) the software/media can stress the absolute best hardware out there. Right now with recorded media it is the opposite, I have a library of 480p media to watch on my 1080i TV.

[ottscay]

Ok, wait, I wasn't invoking some kind of "conspiracy theory" of evil corporations vs. pure-at-heart consumers. The corporations that favor HD-DVD are doing so for what I'm sure they view as very sensible reasons. That doesn't mean it's the best format for consumers though. It's just a fact of life that business interests are not always the same as consumer interests.

Don't blather on with the various advantages of non-entertainment storage use; I made my living for a number of years working with computers, and I"m at least passingly familiar with them. So WHAT??! I'm talking as a consumer about which format has the most advantages for me and others like me who want lots of exciting hi-def content playable on my home theater. In all reality computer storage systems are likely to usee both formats for years to come, as we've seen with format wars involving writable Cds and DVDs. Other uses are perfectly legitimate to those companies/markets interested in them, but that doesn't define what I want to see in a consumer product in my home.

What compatibility issues? Sony has said repeatedly that Blu-Ray disks can easily be made to have a dvd layer for backards compatibility with current dvds, and they have also anounced that they can produce multiple laser based players that play CDs and traditional DVDs in Blu-Ray players.

Just because I think you're wrong doesn't make my opinon "hasty". I've been following the development of both formats quite closely the last few years. I'm happy to admit that HD-DVD has done more to speed up the time-to-market of both products because it derived support more rapidly from studios. That doesn't mean it's a better format than Blu-Ray, any more than the fact that VHS won means it was a better format than Betamax.

What I want in my home are HDTV (preferably 1080P resolution) dvd-style disks that are mixed in uncompressed audio formats (possible with the next codecs announced by Dolby and DTS), I want all the special features to be of equally high production values/resolution. And for people releasing content that is standard definition (like The Simpsons...or pick your own favorite TV show) I want them to take up fewer disks. Don't think anyone will ever relase the entire collection at once? Fine, i'll be happy if they can at least only use a single disk per season when they release each season. More data capacity is still better for the type of content I want delivered, and HD-DVD doesn't offer any advantages that offset its lack of storage capacity.

That being said, I too think HD-DVD will win, because the corporate politics favor it. Not a conspiracy, just a reality of the market pressures that drive these decisions. And as a consumer, I'm lamenting that those market pressures are likely going to provide me with a product that is inferior by the standards I use to judge the products.

It's fine if you don't agree, but don't sit there and tell me my opinion on this subject isn't well thought out, especially if you can't even provide an actual end-user advantage of the competing format.

Scott

[dragonfyr]

A few sites for a few different perspectives.

http://www.gizmodo.com/archives/bluray-has-already-won-023974.php

They say its already over....

http://forum.ecoustics.com/bbs/messages/34579/129058.html

http://www.somacon.com/blog/page16.php

I guess that we will just have to wait to see which format the porn industry chooses! ;-)

http://news.softpedia.com/news/The-chronicles-of-a-futile-battle-Blu-Ray-vs-HD-DVD-631.shtml

This raises another valid point. New advances in technology are ripe to eclipse even the blue laser packing density.

When all is said and done, it seems to me that it will be the best BUSINESS model and not the best technology that will win. After all, I still have a very functional Super Beta Hi-Fi that still kicks rear. And I personally am holding out for Beta to make a resurgence And I love UNIX (esp AIX) and the Mac (FreeBSD). So I am no stranger to picking the better technology and watching the market go by! But Sony had better come up with a better strategy then they did with Beta!

[JJkizak]

Just the fact that Sony is hinting at possibly talking to the HD-DVD people is earth shattering and I almost fell off my chair when I heard that. I would love to see them get together and I think if there was a solution Sony would benefit in the short run and the others would benefit in the long run when more capacity is required for who knows---3D, etc.---

JJK

[dragonfyr]

I heartily agree! And almost unprecedented! Cross your fingers!

[caz1604]

Any way you look at, this is the big picture! It all comes down to support from production studios, and HD DVD seems to have cornered the market.

For HD DVD:

HD DVD entertainment partners stood up to support the HD DVD format Thursday and announced movie and TV series titles that would be available on HD DVD discs by the end of the year. Paramount Home Entertainment, Warner Home Video, Universal Studios Home Entertainment, HBO and New Line Cinema said that about 100 titles, including the "Harry Potter" movies, the "Batman," "Superman," "E.R.," "The West Wing" and "The Sopranos" franchises, would be available on HD DVD discs.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

For Blu-ray:

Studio supporters of Blu-ray Disc include Walt Disney Pictures and Television and the entertainment properties of Sony.

[ottscay]

I can't disagree with the assesment that at this point HD-DVD is in the drivers seat. I just wish it weren't so. And frankly, Sony is partly to blame. Of course future technology will make the "paltry" 100-150gb maximum for BR seem trivially small at some point, but we are likely to be using one of these two formats for a number of years to come, and I still wish it were the one with intrinsically better storage capacities. That said, it's not like I won't purchase HD-DVDs if it looks like they're going to win (and it does look like this will likely be the case). But I'm also reserving the right to ***** and moan if/when bonus content has to be lower resolution or more compressed in order to get it on the disks...

Scott

[dragonfyr]

I would agree with both assessments. Hopefully Sony, with its new CEO (after too many missed opportunities) needs to get their marketing/business act together. And hopefully this outsider (an American) will shake up their strategic thinking a bit. Their technology is sound and on the cutting edge, but they seem to keep making the same type of mistake on the business side. They need to make adopting their technology more compelling for their business partners instead of trying to make it merely less painful.

Lets see what comes of their overture. Hopefully a compromise that will be good for all. We can hope, anyway.

[ottscay]

Yeah, I have to (jeez, this is runing into a love fest...) completely agree. Sony's really made some bad decisions the last few years. And as a fan of Blu-Ray, I have to say it's the consumers who suffer. Not that HD-DVD maybe wouldn't have won anyways (I know, it hasn't technically won yet, but...), but I would have liked to see Sony be more competative about rolling it out. Also, their handling of SACD has been less than stellar. And frankly their computer division charges at least 15% too much for all of their laptops.

I'm sure there are other things, but that's my Sony rant.

Scott

[Vettemanfrom1973]

We might as well start supporting the HD-DVD format! If Sony is approaching the idea of compromising their format with the HD-DVD format then that must mean things are going so great. Since when does Sony give up the war?

HD-DVD is coming out in Sept 05, Blu-ray is said to be coming out mid 2006. How many people are gonna wait 10 more months to have high definition DVD's?

Sure Bluray holds more data, but is it essential, probably not. A dual layered HD-DVD could hold a 3hour movie in hi-def with 9 gigs left in extra's. If you need more space then it would be 2 discs.

The extra 20 gigs from a dual layer BluRay would always be handy but for the next few years, excessive. Todays video games don't even consume full DVD's yet.

Rumors also hint that the X-Box2 is going to be released late 05 (this years big X-mas gift) and it is supposedly going to be HD-DVD. PS3 is not coming out until atleast mid 2006.

Less than six months to go and we'll finally have High Def DVD'S