THE CHART ROOM

[johnyholiday]

jammed into a wedge like others

[johnyholiday]

ENERGY ADVANCE NOT SUPPORTED BY CASH FLOW

One way we can gauge sentiment regarding a particular market or sector index is by watching asset levels and/or cumulative net cash flow in and out of the related Rydex mutual fund. In general, cash flows should rise and fall along with prices. When divergences occur, price movement should be questioned.How can the fund's price advance if money is not pushing the move? Remember, the fund's price is actually its NAV, which is the net asset value of the securities owned by the fund. The value of these securities will change as a result of their being traded in the market. The fact that fund asset levels and cash flow do not confirm price changes indicates that volume associated with the move is drying up. In the case of Energy Fund, we can assume that the advance is not likely to be sustained.

[colterphoto1]

I didn't understand a word of that.. is johny some kind of mad genius or economics professor?

[johnyholiday]

Welcome down to, the dark ,dank, cold,chart room colter ,if you are

seeing fibinacci spirals, feel free to nap in the far corner ,on the

furnished chartroom army cot

[johnyholiday]

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[johnyholiday]

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[boom3]

Hey Johny,

Do you have a chart of mortage interest rates since 1970? It would be useful for a non-audio project of mine.

Thanks!

[johnyholiday]

http://www.thechartstore.com/html/Financial%20Markets%20Samples.pdf page 9, rule of thumb mortgage(french for death all around) interest rates run ~2% higher than 10 year,chart below of the grand-daddy of them all the 30 year, rates would be the inverse ,(will try to digg deeper on mortgage rate just saw one the other day)

[johnyholiday]

last 50 years there have been only two major trends in the long bond yield -- rising to a top in 1981, and falling since then. The chart presents a nearly perfect example of parabolic rise, followed by the inevitable collapse of the parabolic, and finally, the steady decline back toward the original base.

In a very long-term view the ultimate base is at about 2.5%, The evidence isn't incredibly strong, and the trend is still down; nevertheless, early signs of a possible bottom have appeared.

there is modest long-term support around 4% provided by the consolidation between 1959 and 1966, and the price index has a potential double bottom setup just above that support. Second, the weekly PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) is oversold enough to support a rally.

cannot say that a bottom has formed until there is a rally that exceeds the 2004 top, but the seeds of that rally have been sown.

[boom3]

Thanks, whatever you can provide will be welcome. The Chart Store is interesting but for a researcher who needs one chart, a membership of $129 is a bit steep for information in the public domain.

[johnyholiday]

long term (multi-decade) charts of gold, worth a glance. Take a look at

the Fibonacci levels, and notice how gold is coming right up against

resistance. Worth noting, since these commodities{gold,silver,oil,{an

copper is insane} have been on a trip straight to the moon for quite a

while. Here's gold as a commodities proxy......oil got smacked today too

[johnyholiday]

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[johnyholiday]

Here the Bollinger Bands explode

[johnyholiday]

Silver Fibonacci ,in it own way also

Crude oil has reached a

complete saturation point in the media. Everyone is talking about the

spectacular rise in crude, in gold, in copper, silver.........and, as

all good contrarians know, when every flippin' schmoe on the planet is

talking about how high or low something is, it's probably time to fade

the position. Crude tried to push higher today, but went limp fast.....

[johnyholiday]

Logarithmic chart of the S&P500 stretching back to the 1930's.

Notice that the upward sloping channel that contained the stock

market's ascent for nearly sixty years was broken to the upside in

1995. This may have marked the beginning of the equity bubble sooner

than many realize, and it's interesting to note that the upper end of

the channel has turned into support, suggesting we remain in the same

bubble nearly ten years later. When the market trades back into the

channel is anyone's guess, but until it does the bubble hasn't truly

popped.

[johnyholiday]

The Indians say every star in heaven/sky is a soul ,Dow Industrials

overlaid with the Bradley Siderograph. The Bradley Siderograph was

originally developed by Donald Bradley in the 1940's, and is a means of

combining all of the planetary aspects occuring at any given time into

a single number through a complex series of weights and measures.

[johnyholiday]

Right side up

The S&P 500 has smooth sailing, from the Fibonacci perspective. As the shaded area illustrates, there's about 4.5% left of "open air" until the next Fib is hit. This index has shown amazing power and resilience.

[johnyholiday]

Up side down,

. the long term chart of the

URSA Rydex Short fund which goes in the opposite direction to the market.

Below is its Fibonacci chart. The fund closed at 757 on Friday. At 745, or 1.58% from where it is now,

it will have made a 100% retracement.

*** That is full circle from 7.45 to 14.50 and back down to $7.45 again.

Where does it go from there?

Do we get a bull rally that takes the URSA Fund down to ZERO ????

That borderlines on the absurd ... especially with oil prices rising to new highs and putting pressure on profits, and

consumer spending that will react to $4 per gallon of gas.

[johnyholiday]

{AAPL}all disclaimers apply ,An inverse head and shoulders formation is under development. A decisive break of the resistance at 70.97, ideally with an increase in volume, signals a further rise. The stock is testing the resistance at $ 71.00. This should give a negative reaction, but an upward breakthough of $ 71.00 means a positive signal

[johnyholiday]

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