Hurricane season is fast approaching

[dtel's wife]

Notice underlined portion of forecast. NHC has shifted "Cone of Death" (Groomie's favorite line) further southwestward for this forecast, "but not as far southwest as the model consensus".

I sure miss Groomie, cuz I'm not real good at this stuff.

NHC says some models show Ana will be CAT 2 by end of forecast period, while others keep it tropical storm. If track does go further southwest it will have plenty of time to strengthen.

[CECAA850]

There's another "area of intrest" right behind Ana that will most likely end up larger than Ana.

[Mr. RF62]

I don't know alot about how these systems work either, but there is an area in the eastern thats a Cat. 3 for anyone over by that way.

[ace168516]

This is always an intersting time for me...even though I live in tornado land, I have a sister that lives on a 43rd floor penthouse condo in Miami Beach...She is on the highest floor of the tallest building on the beach...you can see the atlantic unobstructed forever basically. I always worry about her getting out of there if something bad were to hit, because traffic off the beach is a nightmare...when they closed one of the three bridges, the congestion was madness getting onto the mainland without any panic mode. I told her about this thread and tried to get her to join up, since she is my designated weather girl for updates and live action photos...sometimes she gets nice pics of water spouts and stuff, since you can see storms coming over the ocean like 30 minutes in advance. Luckily Miami has not really been hit to hard since Andrew.

[dtel's wife]

There's another "area of intrest" right behind Ana that will most likely end up larger than Ana.

Okay, I can only handle one "issue" at a time. I'm not real good at "multi-tasking"...especially with hurricanes. It takes everything I have to handle one storm at a time.[*-)]

But....I will give it a shot. Like I said, I really miss Groomie, he was great at this stuff.

[dtel's wife]

Here's the cone on #3:

[dtel's wife]

Looks like it will take almost the path as Ana????

[dtel's wife]

Here's the newest track on Ana. Looks like it shifted more south????

[dtel's wife]

For those of us who keep up with hurricanes, I will name the pics as follows: stormnametimedate...ie ana11am815. That may help a little bit.

For those of you that are not familiar with hurricanes the National Weather Service has an abundance of information available, with tons of archived stuff.

The updated cones will help you see how quickly the path can change.

[dtel's wife]

11 a.m. 8/15 update on tropical depression 3 from NHC:

WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING
TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
265/15. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT
SPAWNED IT. OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS
AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...
WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.

THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96
HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.5N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W 90 KT

[dtel's wife]

11 a.m. 8/l5 discussion on Ana....lots of uncertainty????

000
WTNT42 KNHC 151455
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BECOME
EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA...SUGGESTING
SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THAT
REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/14.
OVERALL...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ANA QUICKLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE 120 HR
FORECAST POINTS. THE ECMWF AND BAMS ARE AT THE NORTHERN EXTREME...
FORECASTING ANA TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 120 HR.
AT THE OTHER EXTREME ARE THE GFDL AND GFDN...WHICH FORECAST ANA TO
PASS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AT
120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND
THE HWRF. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE CURRENT SHEAR WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS...AND IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY TREND OR A
SIGN OF LONG-TERM TROUBLE FOR ANA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR COULD AFFECT ANA EARLY AND LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE LIGHTEST SHEAR NEAR THE 72 HR TIME.
BASED ON THIS AND THE INCREASINGLY WARM WATER UNDER THE STORM...
MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF ANA LACKED VERTICAL DEPTH...ENDING AT ABOUT 500 MB.
ADDITIONALLY...THE CYCLONE IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA IN 72 HR.
BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 60 KT...BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.3N 48.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 14.6N 50.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 15.2N 54.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 16.1N 58.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 17.3N 62.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 22.0N 74.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

They sound real certain about this, don't they????[:^)]

[CECAA850]

They sound real certain about this, don't they????

Yeah, it's kinda far out. There can be a front that affects it that hasn't even formed yet. There's a lot of science to it, but anything farther than 5 days out is really anyones guess. My ears don't perk up till they hit the Gulf. They're interesting to track though. My area has been hit pretty good lately so I went back and looked at projected paths vs actual storm tracks for the ones that have hit here. It seems that the projected landfall isn't really very accurate outside of 36 hours. From 36 hours pre-landfall you can see the projected path and be fairly certain that you're seeing what's going to happen. Normally if my area is in the center of the "cone of death" when the storm is 5 days out, I can be pretty confident that it's not coming here.

[Mr. RF62]

There's another "area of intrest" right behind Ana that will most likely end up larger than Ana.

Okay, I can only handle one "issue" at a time. I'm not real good at "multi-tasking"...especially with hurricanes. It takes everything I have to handle one storm at a time.

But....I will give it a shot. Like I said, I really miss Groomie, he was great at this stuff.

We'll figure it out dtel's wife, all together.

[CECAA850]

Looks like we have Bill to watch now.

[ace168516]

Talked to my sister about an hour ago...she said the people in Miami are more worried about Bill at this point...something about the construction or formation of the storm...seems like it may be more organized, rounder and more capable of turning into something bad. She is starting her hurricane shopping this week...2 cases of water and some other stuff, but in her words, she already has 3 large bottles of vodka, so all is well.

[Dflip]

Anna appears to be a tropical storm which is going south of the Key West area. It might strengthen a bit when it reaches the Gulf. It is moving pretty quickly at the moment, so it's impact will be over faster than some. Bill is scheduled to be a cat 2 hurricane before it reaches Puerto Rico. Of course, it depends where it goes from there, northwards towards the Carolinas or more southerly and ultimately towards the Gulf. It's definitely worth tracking as we approach next weekend. It has lots of time to make up it's mind and change course.

[dtel's wife]

Mr. RF62,

This story is old to a lot of folks on this forum, but I don't think you have heard it before....so here goes.

I tend to panic (only slightly) when storms begin forming. We usually evacuate for anything greater than a CAT 2. I've learned to keep all important papers and pictures in one place. Actually, we have our most recent pics on CDs, which dtel is responsible for. I take responsibility for the important papers, older photographs and studio portraits of the five grandchildren, which my daughters have entrusted to me for safekeeping.

We evacuated for Katrina to north Louisiana, where my youngest daughter lives. Our house was unharmed, our neighbors on either side lost roofs to barns and house. Dtel's entire family lost everything, except one aunt, she had some stuff on the 2nd floor of her house. Elden's mom, sister, aunts, cousins...all of them.....lost everything. We were all grateful that none of our family died as did many others. All of my relatives also lost everything.

The last of dtel's relatives moved out this past December. At one point we had nine people living with us....for almost three years! Thank goodness we had just renovated and added on to our home. Before the renovations our home had one huge "dorm style" room for our daughters, a very small bedroom for dtel and I and one bathroom. Two months before Katrina we completed the reno/add on and had five bedrooms and two baths. We sure were glad we could take his mom, sister, niece and niece's fiance' in, otherwise they had no where to go.

I never did like hurricanes, but seeing the damage Katrina caused (and it wasn't a direct hit to New Orleans or the Gulf Coast) really shook me up.

[dtel's wife]

They sound real certain about this, don't they????

Yeah, it's kinda far out. There can be a front that affects it that hasn't even formed yet. There's a lot of science to it, but anything farther than 5 days out is really anyones guess. My ears don't perk up till they hit the Gulf. They're interesting to track though. My area has been hit pretty good lately so I went back and looked at projected paths vs actual storm tracks for the ones that have hit here. It seems that the projected landfall isn't really very accurate outside of 36 hours. From 36 hours pre-landfall you can see the projected path and be fairly certain that you're seeing what's going to happen. Normally if my area is in the center of the "cone of death" when the storm is 5 days out, I can be pretty confident that it's not coming here.

According to the National Hurricane Center they have a margin of error on the fourth and fifth day of 225 nautical miles to 300 or so nautical miles. That's a lot of territory when you live in "hurricane alley". That is one of the greatest problems with officials ordering evacuations. Officials have to order evacuations early enough so traffic doesn't completely stop on the interstates (even with contraflow), but they also have to be careful they don't "jump the gun" and the storm goes another direction. That scenario dissuades many from evacuating the next time.

[dtel's wife]

Talked to my sister about an hour ago...she said the people in Miami are more worried about Bill at this point...something about the construction or formation of the storm...seems like it may be more organized, rounder and more capable of turning into something bad. She is starting her hurricane shopping this week...2 cases of water and some other stuff, but in her words, she already has 3 large bottles of vodka, so all is well.

Sounds like she is well prepared![]

[Dflip]

The latest on Ana. It's showing as a tropical depression when it hits the Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully this continues. It's current path is right through Cuba which will steal a lot of it's strength.