Guest Steven1963 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 According to Mr. Armstrong, there will be a move to electronic currency. What, if anything this will be based on isn't given freely (at least not that I have read) from his blog. We are already seeing this with Apple's Ipay system. From what I can tell he doesn't necessarily think the move to electronic currencies will be due to the loss of the U.S. dollar as reserve, but more so that they can monitor every transaction for tax collecting purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oscarsear Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 A few years ago I stumbled onto Martin Armstrong. He's a Princeton economist who is also an accomplished computer programmer. He's been around since the 70's using mathematical algorithms to make market forecasts. He has consulted China on their economies; England also. Among others. His resume is long. He was actually imprisoned back in the 90's because he developed a computer program (Socrates) that could accurately forecast market trends. The government asked him for the code and he said no, knowing what they would use it for. They trumped up charges and threw him in prison for about 10 years. He never did relinquish the code. He's out now, but still making forecasts. Amazingly accurate forecasts. He holds conferences to share his data with whomever wants it, and doesn't discriminate whether you are a nation state or an everyday person wanting to know what the future holds. As I said, he has had an amazingly accurate record since about the 80's. He keeps a blog and updates it almost daily. Huge amounts of information is given away for free. But not everything and much of the in-person stuff is on the East Coast so I can't attend (I certainly would if I could). When he does hold conferences they are always sold out and often have in attendance high level representatives from other nations, who know what is coming, and use Mr. Armstrong's services to help navigate their country's economies. He has given a firm time-frame of the 'big-bang' (his terminology). Late September/early October of this year will begin the next leg down of the collapse, and supposedly this one will dwarf the collapse of 2007/8. He is an excellent read even for the grammatical errors in his blog. Follow him long enough (or even research past blogs) and you begin to see his accuracy. It's almost scary. If you haven't heard of him before you should at least add him to your list of sources: http://armstrongeconomics.com/ Thanks. I am going to check that one out. Just last night I listened to David Stockman (budget director under Reagan). Smart guy and always a good listen. Anyway, he pointed out something very important. When economies are about to implode, international agreements are designed and implemented ahead of the implosion to "head off" a full collapse, and sort out winners from losers, and reset the system. For example, Bretton Woods in the post WWII era, and then the 1972 Nixon Shock which abandoned Bretton Woods, and now - according to Stockman - another new international monetary system will be invented ahead of this big debt crash. Ok, it makes perfect sense to me, but, that idea competes with 10 others from equally qualified experts! In my estimation, I tend to favor the "least dramatic" outcome. Many people forcast these awful total collapses and chaos, but IMO, the world financiers has become much more clever, and will seek to engineer a soft landing that will look better than total collapse. The big three economies are probably designing this solution as we speak. They know it's coming. How can they not? Whatever the new system will be, it will have to wipe out a lot of debt. So, you can imagine how hard the debt holders negotiate so that it is not THEIR debt which gets scraped. This is what you are seeing now with Germany v. Greece. The Germans are simply refusing to take any losses. Well, someone has to lose! The Greek people are simply refusing to be slaves for the next 100 years. To show how insignificant politics are, the old conservative Greek government got replaced last month with a leftist government who is now renegotiating the debt. And if they fail, waiting in the wings is a ultra right wing neo-Nazi group who will take over and take their crack at renegotiating! How much does this play into the debt of our country? Did this administration enter into such depths of debt knowing that it might get restructured of otherwise redefined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 it is about our indebtedness to buy houses and cars. Amen to that! Trying to buy a new house right now. I've been playing defense for about 10 years and frankly I'm tired of waiting. I know it's coming and I've prepared as much as I can, but like you said, we have to keep on living. And truly, whether we like it or not we are all pawns in the system. Some of us know it and hate it, others are blissfully ignorant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Steven, The Armstrong site looks very interesting. Thanks. I was only able to read a few pieces quickly, but this is the kind of analysis that is useful for people. I'm not far enough into his site to see if it is a disguise for a political view, like so many are. But at this point, it looks useful. Thanks! He bangs on both sides pretty hard. But does criticize the current president for being stupid in his political decision making actions. I don't think he would be any less forgiving if anybody or any other political creature was in office - it just happens to be a guy with a 'D' in front of his name currently. He has been especially critical of FATCA - going after money all over the world, he says, is destroying the world economy. Because if you an an American in a foreign country banks will not even open an account for you for fear the IRS is going to come knocking on their door and they just don't want to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well I have a mortgage now. So buying a new house ties me down to....a mortgage. Either way I've got a mortgage. If I lose my job (God forbid) in this next downturn I'd still be sweating the payment no matter what. We did pretty good in this area during the last downturn. We didn't completely escape it - nobody did. But many areas suffered much worse. I don't imagine it'll be different this time around. Sure, I'll take a hit and be upside down for a few years but I don't plan on moving again anytime soon. Been in this house for almost 20 years, so moving isn't something we do often. We can prepare all you want, but are we preparing the right way? Who knows how far down things go or how certain assets will be affected? Not me, that's for sure. I'm looking at a really nice pension with some other strategies to help. But I can't even be sure the pension will survive. In fact, I doubt it will so I do what I can in other areas. I'm not rich so it's a struggle. Short of digging a hole and dumping food stocks and ammunition into it nobody can be certain how they will come out on the other side. And the guy who digs a hole risks losing it all from a flood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 (edited) So, banning politics on forums can only be considered EDUCATIONAL! As long as "banking" isn't banned Indeed. A cunning and clever plan... Dave Edited February 22, 2015 by Mallette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Steven1963 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 (edited) If push comes to shove and it looks like I will lose my house, I'll ask for the bank to produce the original promissory note to validate the debt. If they can't, due to multiple resells/whatever. I'll sit tight and smile. There are always options . Edited February 22, 2015 by Steven1963 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I hope you are right, Mark, when you say it won't get to the point of war with Russia. I hope someone blinks before that point and that it remains a skirmish at the puppet state level. But even then, good people are fighting and dying for a false cause. But I suppose it's been that way throughout history. These bankers think they are invincible and who is to say they won't push just a little bit harder and then boom, over the edge we go to war? They have already taken us too far economically and the price to be paid will be horrific. Right now the system is so rotten that I don't think even if they stared at annihilation they would recognize it. It's sad. I used to be a very patriotic man. But my eyes have been at least half way opened since then and now I am very angry at where we have arrived. I can't condone where we have come to and it seems I can't wake anyone up. I have a hard time convincing anybody outside of my kids and wife what is going on. It's as if everyone around prefers the slumber - even if that slumber is their ruin. I was hoping that the internet would be the avenue to enlightenment not just on this subject, but on, well, everything. But even with this powerful tool it is hard to know what to believe. The disinformation is everywhere and unless you have countless hours for research you may never find the truth. Fortunately many have and are trying to get through to others. But even now the elites see the danger and are working to censor it. Steven, your points are all well-taken, but I think there is a different way to look at it. I look around me, and I see a world full of prosperity and opportunity. Sure, you have plenty of poor and hopeless. The number is even growing. But so what? There is so much opportunity. Carpe diem! ("Seize the day!") I don't wake up in the morning and tell myself, "It would be a great day, except for those rotten statistics!" You shouldn't let things like that bog you down. There is too much to do that you can actually control. Work on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Good time to buy a house? I am not sure. It's tempting, but it's a crap shoot. Only a few markets in the country have recovered. I'd be buying in one of those markets. Houston has gone through the roof! Prices are higher than ever - even higher than their peak before the big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Assets. In general, all asset prices have to fall, because they are all linked to debt (i.e. purchased with debt. If mortgages didn't exist, what would a house cost?). Bad news, huh? Look at how the gold bugs got stung in the last couple years! Stocks? Fine Art? Real Estate? Who knows? But of course their prices rise when borrowing is easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Houston has gone through the roof! I think we can safely say Houston now has a diversified economy. Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Houston has gone through the roof! I think we can safely say Houston now has a diversified economy. Dave “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) Assets. In general, all asset prices have to fall, because they are all linked to debt (i.e. purchased with debt. If mortgages didn't exist, what would a house cost?). Bad news, huh? Look at how the gold bugs got stung in the last couple years! Stocks? Fine Art? Real Estate? Who knows? But of course their prices rise when borrowing is easy. And several trillion new dollars are pushed into the banking system! Being linked to debt is not what makes asset prices fall, or rise for that matter. If debt is used unwisely creating a bubble, then by definition asset prices will fall, because of the bubble. Debt and price are also not linked as you suggest.. Without mortgages, houses would still cost what the market will bear, and new housing will cost what it takes to build them plus a certain amount of profit that makes the risk of building them worthwhile. What you may mean is that if there were no mortgages, everyone would have to save enough to pay cash for houses. Fewer would own, but fewer would be built. Prices are determined by the supply demand curve that implies. "But of course prices rise when borrowing is easy." Or is it borrowing becomes easy because prices are rising? Edited February 23, 2015 by oldtimer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 "But of course prices rise when borrowing is easy." Or is it borrowing becomes easy because prices are rising? No, it's the former. I represented car dealers before and after the bust. I've seen it in housing, too. There are a great many people who will borrow as much as you let them borrow. When you have a lot of loaned money competing for assets, prices go up. A perfect example is student loans. The feds will guarantee/loan as much as anyone with a pulse wants to go to college. What has happened to college tuition over the last couple of decades? It has sky-rocketed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” Well, even though it got chilly last night "huddling" isn't too much of an issue here...but "breathing free" is certainly problematic with our air pollution! Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eth2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have waited for three pages to make this observation. This is certainly a political post unless you define "political" in the most narrow sense (i.e., Dems vs. Republicans). While I have no issue with the discussion, and have enjoyed it, the heading just makes me smile every time I see it. Just because I say a goat is an elephant, does not make it so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have waited for three pages to make this observation. This is certainly a political post unless you define "political" in the most narrow sense (i.e., Dems vs. Republicans). While I have no issue with the discussion, and have enjoyed it, the heading just makes me smile every time I see it. Just because I say a goat is an elephant, does not make it so. We all know what the practical definition of "political" is for purposes of moderation of this forum. A thread is "political" when people start whining, name-calling and getting sarcastic and personal with each other. Heck, even the old digital/analog and SS/tubes debates had to be locked from time to time. It just depends on the level of maturity and decorum exhibited by the thread participants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) We all know what the practical definition of "political" is for purposes of moderation of this forum. A thread is "political" when people start whining, name-calling and getting sarcastic and personal with each other. Heck, even the old digital/analog and SS/tubes debates had to be locked from time to time. It just depends on the level of maturity and decorum exhibited by the thread participants. Spot on, counselor. The whole idea isn't to limit free speech but to keep the place civil. The old timers here have learned to know when the Rubicon has been crossed, and it has not here so far.e Dave Edited February 23, 2015 by Mallette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Being linked to debt is not what makes asset prices fall, or rise for that matter. If debt is used unwisely creating a bubble, then by definition asset prices will fall, because of the bubble. Debt and price are also not linked as you suggest.. Without mortgages, houses would still cost what the market will bear, and new housing will cost what it takes to build them plus a certain amount of profit that makes the risk of building them worthwhile. What is debt? It is new money creation. Keeping things as simple as possible, when you increase the amount of dollars you raise the price of everything denominated in dollars. Mortgages dramatically raise the price of houses because they dramatically increase the amount of money. Try this experiment. Conduct an auction where buyers must pay cash. Total the sales. Now conduct the same auction where credit can be used. The total sales will be higher. Yes. "I don't have any money" is turned into "How much do you want?" All courtesy of debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) The last housing bubble, a classic asset bubble, was fueled by mortgage changes. First we lowered the interest rates, then we lowered the down payment required, then we lowered the qualifying income needed for the loan, then we stopped checking on any income, then we have massive bonuses to people for getting loan applications in the door. Each step increased the money in the system. Each step brought MORE BUYERS for the same house. Prices go up! And the crash mentioned by Oldie is the ultimate result of too little debt. What happened right before the crash? They tightened credit, and started by putting a freeze on virtually all sub-prime lending. Car dealers were complaining that customers had to have 750 credit scores to get into cars, and we saw what happened to a whole lot of car dealers. Nationally, a whole heck of a lot of them tanked. Again, because there was not enough debt. Edited February 23, 2015 by Jeff Matthews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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