Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 The really big picture.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 The wind speed probabilities make for a pretty picture.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here's the problem..... Ntice that the two "protective" high pressure areas have retreated north.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Notice the wind speeds as it gets out of Cuba and into the Straits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Data from Puerto Rico; you can see it coming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 And for dtel..... All of my candle burning, chicken bone casting, dancing nekkid in the moonlight, incantations in all languages that I know, prayer to any and all deities that I could think of, the small sacrifices, consulting with the next door neighbor witches and their really neat, if but kinky coven has produced nothing in the way of shifting Irene out of our backyard come Friday morning.... [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The latest on Irene. It will be a hurricane as it approaches Florida, but just, 75 mph. There is a wide variance in the projections for where, or if it crosses Florida, so beware. Many of the projections have it going up the eastern coast where it will be able to continue to feed itself with waters from the Atlantic. TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920111100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEPCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORMSTILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THESOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVELWINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ISESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVINGOVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE ISFORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THEUSUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENEWILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA ANDEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVERTHE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILLLIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE.THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOWON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERNATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECASTTO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS AFAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY ATDAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WESTOF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THENORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUSON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIESIN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND$$FORECASTER PASCH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Preparations gentlemen (and ladies..), preparation. Batteries - all new for the flashlights, etc. Fuel - 72 gallons secured for the generators (got 2 of of 'em, in case the first one dies...) Shutters - ready to go for Thursday afternoon Pets - I know better than to do what SWMBO demanded the last time. They are smarter than us. The last time she tried that, the little bas*tards were locked in the outer garage and crapped all over everything and took me a week to find all the mess..... Horses - No proble, they simply turn their butts into the wind and keep eating grass.... That's what they do.... Food - We're stocked, locked and ready to go. Fridge & freezer is ready for generator... Water - Plenty of bottled water, and we have a well so as long as I have a generator, we can take showers, etc. Battery back-ups so I can do tunes as some insane demented obligato to the bass heavy winds as they pass over the abode... I'm thinking of Wagner's "Ride Of The Valkyrie" in a continous loop for full effect..... [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here's another interesting file, animation. http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html The link allows you to see the hurricane moving and the changes in pressure from a storm to a hurricane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 As for those of you in the Gulf, you might not want a hurricane heading in there right now with these water temperatures. It would only intensify greatly once it hit this very warm water. The only saving grace is there is no 89 degree trough leading right to Louisiana like their was just before Katrina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The latest update on Irene which is going to be stronger than first projected. The east coast of Florida will get buzzed, but landfall is between the Florida Georgia border and North Carolina. Instead of heading straight towards one landing spot, Irene is going to run parallel to the coast until it runs out of land. It will also be able to continue to keep itself going with the warm water from the Gulf Stream and as a result it is sheduled to continue as a hurricane until it hits land on the east coast. The current estimate of wind speed just before it hits land will be 110 mph, but this is a conservative estimate that may strengthen if Irene doesn't interact too much with the mountains in Hispaniola. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURSDESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTORICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAATERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLERVELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THECENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVEALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESEDATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATAAT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THEPAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THENORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TOCHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEPIRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THENORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THENORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTERTHAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE ABREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDAAND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOWIRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELSARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENEWELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARETHE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OFFLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLYPACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THEBAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY ISTHAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOWOF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVELMID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS ANDBEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TOLOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPSAND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE ALITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIALFORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THEPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCHOR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORESTRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OFTHE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THEFORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSOEXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANTSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILLREMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCHIRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FORTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OFTHE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...ITWOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE ATSOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS AREFORECASTING.IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGEERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH$$FORECASTER STEWART Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well.... there's good news and bad news.... The bad news is that without the system being torn up by Hispaniola and Cuba, it will become the "beast".... and will likely pck 115+ winds at least 30-60 miles in a radius of the center. The othe bad news is that it will then be a strong Cat-2 and will hit around JAX or Savannah, GA on early Sat morning. Good news? Well for me anyways. The local plot shows the closest "pass point" at 70 miles to the east of us. That means our 64 - 75+ winds will last for about 2 hours, and then drop off. Here's the discussion. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST 65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT 1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS... SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH CLOSEST TO THE WALL OF VOODOO AT THIS POINT IN THE SAGA 120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 This is going to be a pee bringer, heart breaker and a name taker.... FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAYOUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. That would be 95+ mph winds and gusts to 118 mph... OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. Now we're talking nuclear strike.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 The NHC conservative estimate.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 This is like watching a train wreck and you are in it..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 The beast.... . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 **** SATELLITE CENSORSHIP******* !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [bs] [bs] [bs] [bs] [bs] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 More than one way to skin the cat........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 another IR image.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Oh well; got my boots, just topped the pasture, etc., etc.... Pinging COYTEE in JAX...... Make sure your stuff is off, unplugged and away from the windows...... [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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