Groomlakearea51 Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 And the temps themselves. The warm areas are the "hurricane highway". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Wind speeds at the 850 mB pressure altitude: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The latest forecast on Emily. It remains a bit unorganized and they're still not sure on the path, but it appears to be a "bit" further to the east as it approaches Florida. The Bahamas at the moment are the target that its going to approach early Friday night. The barrier islands in North Carolina could be on the edge of Emily when it hits hurricane strength. 500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANEHUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THECIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TOSOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATAINDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO ANUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TOABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM ISPRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATASUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULDBE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUETO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTIONA RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECASTTHAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARDSPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THESUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUNCONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THEPREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARDDUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARDTURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TOBUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THECENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDINTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THEMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBAWILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THESTORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. INADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THESTORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YETANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEWINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUETO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUALSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FORSOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITSNORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OFSOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH$$FORECASTER BEVEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 The tracks for this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Satellite pics above on this page are automatically updated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Emily may be no more, or it might become a storm again as it get closer to the Bahamas. REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUSTLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLACONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THECYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACEOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSEDCIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OFLOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THEECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYSFORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVERHISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY ISEXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVEREASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIALFOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FORTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER AVILA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Well, it's still a weak system, but will probably reform after it gets past our area of the Florida coast.... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THERE IS HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL...AND DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 The graphic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 The track paths: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 The picture... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Emily has sort of reformed, at least as a tropical depression and may reach storm status out in the Atlantic. It's providing some rain to Florda, anywhere from 1 -3 inches depending on the exact location. The heaviest rain has been south of Fort Lauderdale, so it looks like Marshall will deal with some rain tonight, but not much else. I'm sure that will help him sleep better tonight. 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATAFROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THATTHE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE. THE INITIALINTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVELWINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATENORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICALSTORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERSAND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 36HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITHTHE SHIPS AND LGEM.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAINSINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILYIS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ANDWILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLEOF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THEOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCATHROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITSFORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NOTROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACTWILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 06/2100Z 26.9N 78.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 31.6N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BRENNAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 There are a couple of storms forming up in the Atlantic, Initial paths for the first storm, 92: The projections for the second storm, 93: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Looks like that big high pressure system is keeping things out of the Gulf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 We are in the "mid-game". The one that poses the greatest threat (at this moment.....) is the last one as it will have a tendency to begin a NW curve as it approaches the Windward islands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Marshall, I agree. The first two storms are turning out to sea and will end up in the middle of the Atlantic. The second storm is heading to the bigger islands and the forecasts have it either going north or south of them. So far it looks like it will cause problems for someone, not sure if it's you or our friends on the Gulf Coast? Of course, the next question is how strong are the winds associated with it? It's still a week away or more, but it's worth keeping an eye on until we know some more information. We are now approaching the middle of August and from now until mid September, it's prime hurricane season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Hey Marshall. What were YOU doing seven years ago tomorrow afternoon? Me... I was taking down servers and getting computers off of the floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Watching Charlie's path with great interest.... By that point we knew that at worst case scenario, it would be at least 75 miles from us. The winds at that distance would be less than 75 mph, so we shuttered up the house, fueled the generator, etc. As it passed over western DeSoto County (Arcadia), winds here peaked at about 45 mph. But what got us was Frances on the 4th, 5th of September (TS force winds started here at about 6:00 PM and lasted until 11:00 AM the following morning. The storm was huge... Then three weeks later, Jeanne followed the same path (as in right over my house...) and was a very powerful storm. It started for us at about 9:00 PM with TS winds, and the "howling" started in earnest by about 11:00 PM. Fortunately it was a fast mover and lasted until just before daylight. The damage caused by Frances and Jeanne to Okeechobee County, which was considerable, has never been mitigated. FEMA never disbursed the money they promised. Same thing with Charlie and the losses in Hardee/ DeSoto as I recall. We were "left on our own"... Only thing FEMA gave was some blue tarps, MRE's and some bottled water.... Don't get me started on FEMA's response, and this is not the proper forum for my thoughts.... [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Meanwhile...... Things are looking up, so to speak.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Hopefully, "Low-7" will follow the NHC's instructions: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 and the other one as well.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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