Hurricane Season - 2011

[Groomlakearea51]

Ok.... Arlene was a no-show for us, but did start early.

It's now "almost" mid-July, and we are beginning to see the "waves" as they cross the Atlantic at their weekly rate.

The formation of systems in the Gulf itself will generally "fade away" as we get further into the dog days of summer. By August the systems that will form will be the waves as they cross the Atlantic.

I any event... Here's the latest on the "wuzzup?" screen. Discussions and graphics to follow:

[Groomlakearea51]

Now... they were worried about it last night. The media was all over it, mostly for the rain it will bring to the central and norther part of Florida which is still "drought country"

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the tracks..... Note they are all over the place.....

[Groomlakearea51]

I'd like to also post a re-cap of what those track names mean and what they are predicting and why.

This is an important statement by the met folks...

These scatter plots are intended for use by individuals with proper training and
expertise.
There are multiple potential causes of misinterpretation that
include, but are not limited to, the following:
- Each model utilizes
different assumptions and different calculations which leads to different models
performing better in different situations.
- All models have unique
biases.
- Some models utilize statistics, some utilize physics formulas, some
utilize a combination of both.
- Some models perform best with weaker
systems, others perform best with well-developed, purely tropical systems.
-
The spread of the various model solutions can give a sense of the uncertainty
associated with a particular storm track. However, some of the models are
interrelated as they share the same initial analyses or the same global forecast
fields. Therefore, clustering of model solutions does not necessarily indicate
truely independent agreement.
- Poor model analyses of initial conditions can
lead to even worse model solutions.
- The National Hurricane Center has
access to many other models and data not included in these products. At times,
these other models and data have a significant impact on the forecast track
issued by the National Hurricane Center.
- Further information on some of the
models used by the National Hurricane Center can be found at the National Hurricane Center
website, the National Weather
Service Southern Region Headquarters website, and the Hurricane Research
Division website.

[Groomlakearea51]

The term

“forecast model” refers to any objective tool used to generate a prediction of

a future event, such as the state of the atmosphere. The National Hurricane

Center (NHC) uses many models as guidance in the preparation of official track

and intensity forecasts. The most

commonly used models at NHC are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1. Summary of the mostly commonly used NHC track

and intensity models. “E” refers to

early and “L” refers to late in the timeliness column. “Trk” refers to track and “Int” refers to

intensity the parameters forecast column.

Name/Description

ATCF ID

Type

Timeliness

(E/L)

Parameters

Official NHC

forecast

OFCL

Trk, Int

NWS/Geophysical

Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model

GFDL

Multi-layer

regional dynamical

L

Trk, Int

NWS/Hurricane Weather Research and

Forecasting Model (HWRF)

HWRF

Mutlti-layer

regional dynamical

L

Trk, Int

NWS/Global Forecast

System (GFS)

GFSO

Multi-layer global

dynamical

L

Trk, Int

National Weather Service Global Ensemble

Forecast System (GEFS)

AEMN

Consensus

L

Trk, Int

United Kingdom Met

Office model, automated tracker (UKMET)

UKM

Multi-layer global

dynamical

L

Trk, Int

UKMET with

subjective quality control applied to the tracker

EGRR

Multi-layered

global dynamical

L

Trk, Int

Navy Operational

Global Prediction System (NOGAPS)

NGPS

Multi-layer global

dynamical

L

Trk, Int

Navy version of

GFDL

GFDN

Multi-layer

regional dynamical

L

Trk, Int

Environment Canada Global Environmental

Multiscale Model

CMC

Multi-level global

dynamical

L

Trk, Int

European Center for

Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Model

EMX

Multi-layer global

dynamical

L

Trk, Int

Beta and advection

model (shallow layer)

BAMS

Single-layer

trajectory

E

Trk

Beta and advection

model (medium layer)

BAMM

Single-layer

trajectory

E

Trk

Beta and advection

model

(deep layer)

BAMD

Single-layer

trajectory

E

Trk

Limited area

barotropic model

LBAR

Single-layer

regional dynamical

E

Trk

NHC98 (Atlantic)

A98E

Statistical-dynamical

E

Trk

NHC91 (Pacific)

P91E

Statistical-dynamical

E

Trk

CLIPER5

(Climatology and Persistence model)

CLP5

Statistical

(baseline)

E

Trk

SHIFOR5

(Climatology and Persistence model)

SHF5

Statistical

(baseline)

E

Int

Decay-SHIFOR5

(Climatology and Persistence model)

DSF5

Statistical

(baseline)

E

Int

Statistical Hurricane

Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

SHIP

Statistical-dynamical

E

Int

SHIPS with inland

decay

DSHP

Statistical-dynamical

E

Int

Logistic Growth

Equation Model

LGEM

Statistical-dynamical

E

Int

Previous cycle

OFCL, adjusted

OFCI

Interpolated

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle

GFDL, adjusted

GFDI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle

GFDL, adjusted using a variable intensity offset correction that is a

function of forecast time. Note that for track, GHMI and GFDI are identical

GHMI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle

HWRF, adjusted

HWFI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle GFS,

adjusted

GFSI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle UKM,

adjusted

UKMI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle

EGRR, adjusted

EGRI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle

NGPS, adjusted

NGPI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle

GFDN, adjusted

GFNI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Previous cycle EMX,

adjusted

EMXI

Interpolated-dynamical

E

Trk, Int

Average of GHMI,

EGRI, NGPI, and GFSI

GUNA

Consensus

E

Trk

Version of GUNA

corrected for model biases

CGUN

Corrected consensus

E

Trk

Previous cycle

AEMN, adjusted

AEMI

Consensus

E

Trk, Int

Average of GHMI,

EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, and GFSI

TCON

Consensus

E

Trk

Version of TCON

corrected for model biases

TCCN

Corrected consensus

E

Trk

Average of at least

2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI

TVCN

Consensus

E

Trk

Version of TVCN

corrected for model biases

TVCC

Corrected consensus

E

Trk

Average of LGEM, HWFI,

GHMI, and DSHP

ICON

Consensus

E

Int

Average of at least

2 of DSHP, LGEM, GHMI, HWFI, and GFNI

IVCN

Consensus

E

Int

FSU Super-ensemble

FSSE

Corrected consensus

E

Trk, Int

[Groomlakearea51]

This is a "complicated" or complex read, but take your time and you will get a better idea why some tracks go left, some right, and some just run around in circles...

Forecast models vary tremendously in
structure and complexity. They can be
simple enough to run in a few seconds on an ordinary computer, or complex
enough to require a number of hours on a supercomputer. Dynamical models, also known as numerical
models, are the most complex and use high-speed computers to solve the physical
equations of motion governing the atmosphere.
Statistical models, in contrast, do not explicitly consider the physics
of the atmosphere but instead are based on historical relationships between
storm behavior and storm-specific details such as location and date. Statistical-dynamical models blend both
dynamical and statistical techniques by making a forecast based on established
historical relationships between storm behavior and atmospheric variables
provided by dynamical models. Trajectory
models move a tropical cyclone (TC) along based on the prevailing flow obtained
from a separate dynamical model.
Finally, ensemble or consensus models are created by combining the
forecasts from a collection of other models.
The following sections provide more detailed descriptions of the
modeling systems and individual models most frequently used at NHC.

a. Early versus Late Models

Forecast models
are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are
available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast
cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release
of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The
1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and
available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is
released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would
be considered a “late” model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC
official forecast. Conversely, the BAM
models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are
initialized. Therefore, they are termed
“early” models. Model timeliness is
listed in Table 1.

Due to their complexity, dynamical models
are generally, if not always, late models.
Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a
late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic
time and initial conditions. In the
example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run
of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h
forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and
intensity of the TC. The adjustment
process creates an “early” version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most
current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted
versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as
“interpolated” models.

c. Interpreting Forecast Models

NHC provides
detailed information on the verification of its past forecasts with a yearly
verification report (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml). On average, NHC official forecasts usually
have smaller errors than any of the individual models. An NHC forecast reflects consideration of all
available model guidance as well as forecaster experience. Therefore, users should consult the official
forecast products issued by NHC and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices
rather than simply looking at output from the forecast models themselves. Users should also be aware that uncertainty
exists in every forecast, and proper interpretation of the NHC forecast must
incorporate this uncertainty. NHC
forecasters typically discuss forecast uncertainty in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion (TCD) product. NHC also
prepares probabilistic forecasts that incorporate forecast uncertainty
information (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprobs.shtml).

d. Statistical Models

Statistical models are based on established
relationships between storm-specific information, such as location and time of
year, and the behavior of historical storms.
While these models provided key forecast guidance in past decades, today
these models are most often used as benchmarks of skill against which more
sophisticated and accurate models and the NHC official forecast are
compared. Models that are less accurate
than a simple statistical model are considered “unskillful” and models that are
more accurate than statistical models are considered “skillful”. Due to their simplicity, statistical models
are among the quickest to run and are typically available to forecasters within
minutes of initialization.

Climatology and Persistence Model
(CLIPER5)

CLIPER5 is a statistical track
model originally developed in 1972 and extended to provide forecasts out to 120
h (5 days) in 1998. As the name implies,
the CLIPER5 model is based on climatology and persistence. It employs a multiple regression technique
that estimates the relationships between several parameters of the active TC to
a historic record of TC behavior to predict the track of the active TC. The inputs to the CLIPER5 include the current
and past movement of the TC during the previous 12- and 24-hour periods, the
direction of its motion, its current latitude and longitude, date, and initial
intensity. CLIPER5 is now used primarily as a benchmark for evaluating
the forecast skill of other models and the official NHC forecast, rather than
as a forecast aid.

Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Forecast (SHIFOR5)

SHIFOR5 is a simple statistical
intensity model that uses climatology and persistence as
predictors. In recent years it has been supplemented by the
Decay-SHIFOR.

Decay-SHIFOR5

Decay-SHIFOR5 is a version of SHIFOR5 that includes a weakening
component when TCs move inland.
Decay-SHIFOR5 is most often used as a benchmark for evaluating forecast
skill of other models and the official NHC intensity forecast. Unlike CLIPER5, which is not competitive with
the more complex track models, decay-SHIFOR5 does provide useful operational
intensity guidance.

e. Statistical-Dynamical Models

NHC91/NHC98 Models

The NHC98 (Atlantic) and NHC91
(east Pacific) models are statistical-dynamical models that employ the
statistical relationships between storm behavior and predictors used by the
CLIPER5, in addition to relying on forecast predictors of steering flow
obtained from dynamical model forecasts, such as the deep-layer-mean GFS
geopotential heights fields (averaged from 1000 to 100-mb). These models no longer produce competitive
track guidance.

Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction
Scheme (SHIPS)

The SHIPS model is a statistical-dynamical intensity
model based on statistical relationships between storm behavior and
environmental conditions estimated from dynamical model forecasts as well as on
climatology and persistence predictors. Due to the use of the dynamical predictors,
the average intensity errors from SHIPS are typically 10%-15% less than those
from SHIFOR5. SHIPS has historically
outperformed most of the dynamical models, including the GFDL, and SHIPS has
traditionally been one of the most skillful sources of intensity guidance for NHC.

SHIPS is based on standard multiple regression
techniques. The predictors for SHIPS include climatology and persistence,
atmospheric environmental parameters (e.g., vertical wind shear, stability,
etc.), and oceanic input such as sea surface temperature (SST) and
upper-oceanic heat content. Many of the
predictors are obtained from the GFS and are averaged over the entire forecast
period. The developmental data from
which the regression equations are derived include open ocean TCs from 1982 through
the present. Each year the regression equations are re-derived based upon the
inclusion of the previous year’s data. Therefore, the weighting of the predictors
can change from year to year. The
predictors currently found to be most statistically significant are: the
difference between the current intensity and the estimated maximum potential
intensity (MPI), vertical wind shear, persistence, and the upper-tropospheric temperature. SHIPS also includes predictors from satellite
data such as the strength and symmetry of convection as measured from infrared
satellite imagery and the heat content of the upper ocean determined from
satellite altimetry observations.

DeMaria
M., and J. Kaplan, 1994: Sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of
Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 7, 1324–1334.

DeMaria,
M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2005: Further
Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20, 531–543.

Decay-SHIPS

Decay-SHIPS is a version of
SHIPS that includes an inland decay component.
Since land interactions result in weakening, the Decay-SHIPS will
typically provide more accurate TC intensity forecasts when TCs encounter or
interact with land. Over open water with
no land interactions, the intensity forecasts from Decay SHIPS and SHIPS will
be identical.

Logistic Growth
Equation Model (LGEM)

LGEM is a
statistical intensity forecast model that uses the same input as SHIPS but in
the framework of a simplified dynamical prediction system, instead of a
multiple regression. The evolution of the intensity is determined by a logistic
growth equation that constrains the solution to lie between zero and the TC’s
maximum potential intensity (MPI), where the MPI is estimated from an empirical
relationship with sea surface temperature (SST). The forecast of the maximum wind depends on
the growth rate coefficient, which is estimated from a subset of the input to
the SHIPS model. Ocean heat content and other parameters derived from geostationary
satellites are also incorporated into the LGEM.
An important difference from SHIPS is that the LGEM considers the
variability in the environmental conditions over the length of the forecast
while SHIPS does not; most of the SHIPS predictors are averaged over the entire
forecast period, while the equivalent LGEM predictors are averaged only over
the 24 hours prior to the forecast valid time. In addition, the MPI in the LGEM
prediction is the instantaneous value, rather than the forecast period average
used in SHIPS. These differences make the LGEM prediction more sensitive to
environmental changes at the end of the forecast period, but also make the
prediction more sensitive to track forecast errors. Since the LGEM model averages its predictors over
a shorter time period, it is also better able to represent the intensity
changes of storms that move from water to land and back over water relative to
the SHIPS model.

f. Dynamical Models

Dynamical models
are the most complex and most computationally expensive numerical models used
by NHC. These models make forecasts by
solving the physical equations that govern the atmosphere, using a variety of
numerical methods and initial conditions based on available observations. Since observations are not taken at every
location in the model domain, the model initial state can vary tremendously
from the real atmosphere, and this is one of the primary sources of uncertainty
and forecast errors in dynamical models.
Errors in the initial state of a model tend to grow with time during the
forecast, so small initial errors can become very large several days into the
forecast period. It is largely for this
reason that forecasts become increasingly inaccurate in time.

f.1. Global
Dynamical Models

Global models
are dynamical models with a domain that encompasses the entire planet. Table 2 provides details on the resolution
and physics of the most common global models used at NHC.

Table 2.
Description of the mostly commonly used global dynamical models at
NHC.

Global

Dynamical Model

Model Physics

Horizontal Grid Spacing

(or equivalent if spectral)

Vertical Levels

Vertical Coordinates

Convective Parameterization

Data Assimilation

CMC GEM^1,2

Hydrostatic Grid Point

0.30° latitude, 0.45°
longitude

(~33 km at 49° latitude)

80

Hybrid Sigma-Pressure

Kain-Fritsch

(deep)

Kuo-transient (shallow)

4-D Var

ECMWF^3,4,5

Hydrostatic Spectral

~25 km

91

Hybrid Sigma-Pressure

Tiedtke

4-D Var

GFS^1,6

Hydrostatic Spectral

~35 km

(through FHR 180)

~80 km

(FHR 180-384)

64

Hybrid Sigma-Pressure

Simplified Arakawa-Shubert

3-D Var;

GSI/GDAS Analysis⁶

NOGAPS¹

Hydrostatic Spectral

~55 km

30¹

Hybrid Sigma-Pressure

Emmanuel

3-D Var;

NAVDAS Analysis

UKMET^3,7,8

Non-Hydrostatic Grid Point

0.40° latitude, 0.50°
longitude

(~40 km in mid latitudes)

50

Hybrid Sigma-Pressure

Gregory/

Rowntree

4-D Var

[Groomlakearea51]

Also, a good "primer" on the models is discussed here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm

[Groomlakearea51]

and this one which is very simple........

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html

[Groomlakearea51]

Talk about SURPRISE!

Nothing on the screens, the radar etc. on Saturday or Sunday morning.

But at 0600 this morning, I'm checking the screens and Voila!!!

Where this came from is not a mystery, it is simply what's left of the frontal systems that passed from the Gulf across Florida during the last week.

The fact that it formed from a depression up into a TS in less than 12 hours is interesting, and from a forecast/ warning point of view, pretty disturbing.

Here's the graphic:

[Groomlakearea51]

Now what is interesting is that it's sunny, no wind, nothing visible outside and while some cloud bands off to the east (normal for early morning in Florida), you would not know that a TS was less than 100 miles away from your front yard.

Here's the IR image

[Groomlakearea51]

Close up visible image

[Groomlakearea51]

The big picture...

[Groomlakearea51]

Forecast extract:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BRET WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

[Groomlakearea51]

Forecast positions and wind speeds:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 27.2N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 27.6N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 28.6N 77.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 29.7N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 30.7N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 38.0N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 77.7W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.

Above bold is why we cannot see or feel it here...

12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.6N 77.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.6N 77.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.7N 76.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.7N 75.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.

[Groomlakearea51]

Where's it going?

[Groomlakearea51]

NOTE: The above track graphics and sat images will automatically update until the last graphics for this storm is issued.

[CECAA850]

Hmmmmmmm

[Mallette]

Come to daddy!!!!

OK, I hope I don't regret that, but I'd like nothing better than a nice tropical storm or cat 1 coming our way right now.

Dave

PS - I am quite aware that the GOM is in perfect form for the perfect storm. I'm hoping the upper level conditions will continue to be in opposition to same.

[Dflip]

Dave:

It looks like you are going to get something. The forecasts on Stormpulse show it anywhere from Brownsville to east of Galveston, although most projections are to the west of you. No information yet as to wind speed, but the hurricane hunter aircraft should have more information later today. The storm on the map you posted yesterday is now showing red. Since you copied the image from NOAA it will continue to change. If the image is first saved to your computer and then inserted into the text, then it will only show it's status at that particular time.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

[Groomlakearea51]

Sorry for being late on posting but other things were occupying my time.....

Here's the track paths'