Hurricane Season - 2011

[oldtimer]

I'm against any big storm unless it brings rain to north central texas. It would just seem wasteful.

[Dflip]

We now have Emily and it is projected to be a hurricane before it hits Miami or north of there.

AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. 

Emily is forcast to hit on Saturday afternoon, after 2:00 p.m. At the moment it looks like a hurricane that will hit the coast and then go out to see at some point. Hopefully it will continue to travel at 15 mph or faster. 

[dtel]

That's right in Marshals back yard. []

[Dflip]

This pretty much says it all.... Emily doesn't have a defined centre and they aren't really sure how strong or weak it will be, or where it might end up. The last projection has it now off the Florida coast and not a hurricane, but...

500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.  RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL.  MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY.  IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14.   THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO.  AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.5N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.2N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.0N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 17.8N  70.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 18.7N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/0600Z 26.0N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 30.0N  80.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Groomlakearea51]

That's right in Marshals back yard.

.. and my front yard, sides and both front and back pastures.....

The tracks paths for today:

[Groomlakearea51]

Wind speed probabilities:

[Groomlakearea51]

When they are headed your way, this is what you want to look at...... Get a map, compass (the thingy that makes arcs/circles) and a ruler out....

First, plot the track path on a map.

Then, using the compass, make the wind speed arcs.

Remarks in bold:

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. This tells you that from that poistion, how far the winds in each quadrant will go out. In this case, the north end of the storm, out to 60 miles will have at least 35 knot (43mph) winds.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MIL track model and you can see the wind speed arcs.

[Groomlakearea51]

If on the same track by Saturday.... we will likely see high TS winds in Okeechobee (NW quadrant). Winds will be initially from the east as it gets closer, then from the north (those will be the strongest, and as it passes, the winds will then be from the west. Tornados are embedded in the SW and SE quadrants because the storm is "dragging" those small interior cyclones with it.

Unsure about the rain, but if it's a fast mover, we'll get about 4"-6".

[Groomlakearea51]

Ideally (for me.....), I would want it to actually shift about 50 miles west. Reason, Once it starts over the Everglades, being over land will tear it up and reduce the wind speeds down. More rain, but that's not a problem here as it all drains off within 24 hours.....

As it is, half the storm will be over land once it gets close to Miami, but it's picking up cooler water from the SE and NE quads, and then passing it over hot land mass which causes turbulence and tornados.

The best time for it to pass is actually at night when the temps are cooler over land.

[Groomlakearea51]

For those who have never been in a hurricane; it sounds and feels like you are laying down on railroad tracks and a train is passing over you at 75+mph.... for about 6 hours.....

For those who've been in tornados, similar, not as loud, but lasts forever.....

[dtel]

It's so dry in Texas lakes are drying up, there finding things on the bottom not expected.

Recovered debris from the space shuttle Columbia lies in a hangar at Kennedy Space Center in May 2003.

(CNN) -- The recent drought has ruined millions of acres of farmland in Texas, turning lakes into mud puddles, but in the East Texas city of Nacogdoches, authorities say, the drought may have done something good: Unearthed a piece of the space shuttle Columbia.

The object, which is about 4 feet in diameter, was found in a local lake. NASA says it is a tank that provides power and water for shuttle missions.

"It's one of ours," said Lisa Malone, a spokeswoman for the agency.

Malone added that NASA is trying to develop a plan to recover the item, but it could take weeks to get it.

"We're looking into whether we'll send a team out or local authorities can," Malone said.

Authorities say the object was found after the drought caused the waters to recede in Lake Nacogdoches, and they notified representatives from NASA on Friday.

"The lower water level has exposed a larger than normal area on the northern side of the lake," said Sgt. Greg Sowell of the Nacogdoches Police Department.

The item is full of mud and is in a remote area near a private shoreline, Sowell said.

Nacogdoches made headlines in 2003 when debris from the shuttle Columbia disaster was found there.

The spacecraft broke up while re-entering Earth's atmosphere near the end of its mission on February 1, 2003.

"We want to remind everyone that the rules are the same as they were back in 2003. If this object is indeed a part of the shuttle, it is government property, and it is a criminal offense to tamper with it," Sowell said.

CNN's Dave Alsup contributed to this report

[Dflip]

As Emily keeps changing, she is expected to develop into a hurricane off the coast of South and North Carolina. She might be projected to be a touch further offshore in Florida, but we are not talking a sizeable amount.

1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
A CDO-LIKE PATTERN...HOWEVER A 2157 UTC SSMIS PASS SUGGESTED THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...45
KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...THAT THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY OVERNIGHT.
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 12 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER EMILY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TILTED STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VELOCITY
DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.  OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE
CYCLONE REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THAT TIME.  IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS TRIP
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW EMILY WILL FARE AFTER LAND INTERACTION.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK
OF AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA.  BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SSMIS
PASS...THE CENTER IS ASSUMED TO BE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...
YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/12...TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING EMILY TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT A
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EMILY SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5 AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT
THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS 3 AND 4.  THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD
THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN
USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.

BASED ON THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 16.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 17.0N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.4N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 20.2N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/0000Z 22.0N  74.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 26.0N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 29.5N  78.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 33.0N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the latest from NHC this morning:

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH SINCE YESTERDAY. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT AND THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 42 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE THAT ABOUT 15 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS TILTED EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. ALSO...CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA. NORTH OF THAT ISLAND...

THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 2 TO 5 DAYS IS CONSERVATIVE... HOWEVER...AS IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW SEVERELY EMILY WILL BE DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/12. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON THIS CYCLE... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND DAY 3 AND BEYOND...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.3N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.0N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 20.7N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/0600Z 22.5N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 26.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH That's when it will either be on top of us or close to us........
96H 07/0600Z 30.0N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 33.5N 74.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

[Groomlakearea51]

This mornings track paths:

[Groomlakearea51]

This morning's IR SAT photo:

[Groomlakearea51]

Nice close up:

[Groomlakearea51]

Stuff coming off Africa is a little lower than mid-Sahara and does not show anything that they are concerned with at the moment. But that one that's just at the coast already shows signs of rotation.

[Groomlakearea51]

This is a good graphic to bookmark. It's called the unified surface analysis. You can see the tropical "waves" (little curved vertical brown lines) that are coming off the coast of Africa. Those are where the TS's and hurricanes start.

[Groomlakearea51]

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies.

Very important. Interestingly, the anomalies are not as bad as last year. Still above normal in certain areas.