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Hurricane Season - 2011


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Well, using my Texas and Indian heritage combined, here's my thoughts and hopes for the next few days for Seabrook.

As I mentioned a week or so ago, I can see that the current pattern is breaking. Further, I am going to suggest that there is a better than even chance of at least a low, if not a TD, developing in our NTD future. An Irene would be quite welcome here, especially if it hung around. Should my prediction materialize, hanging around is also not out of the question as there isn't much going on to replace the high.

100 again today, however.

Perhaps you more globally savvy guys might be able to suggest the implications for Katia. Her vector is certainly typical of the mid-September storms that have entered the GOM.

Dave

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For the untrained and uneducated eye (mine) it appears that Katia will steer clear of the Gulf.

Didn't say our shield pattern was gone, just showing signs of change. May not be soon enough to affect Katia...even assuming it is underway now, just is just my own untrained and uneducated guess.

However, if it DID break down in the next 36 hours it MIGHT have an effect.

And, of course, a Hong Kong audiophile might play some Schoenberg at the right time and it falls appart. [;)]

See "Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency" for reference.

Dave

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For the untrained and uneducated eye (mine) it appears that Katia will steer clear of the Gulf.

Didn't say our shield pattern was gone, just showing signs of change. May not be soon enough to affect Katia...even assuming it is underway now, just is just my own untrained and uneducated guess.

However, if it DID break down in the next 36 hours it MIGHT have an effect.

And, of course, a Hong Kong audiophile might play some Schoenberg at the right time and it falls appart. Wink

See "Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency" for reference.

Dave

But have you cleaned out your fridge?
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Dtel, what's worse is http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20110830/NEWS02/110830022/

Pockets of New Jersey is bad as well, I went by the ol fishing spot to see if it was still there, the road was cut off. I think the river is triple the normal height, It was touching the bottom of tree's leaves. Our place was alright for the fact that we live on a hill and I prepared the house in advance to the storm by digging trenches for the water to route around the house. Down in the next town over their downtown was 3 feet in water :(

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Looks like Dave was correct. The low in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico seems to be gaining strength and the high that has been protecting us is breaking down. NHC and local weather "authorities" are predicing 2-10 inches of rain in our forecast area. Dave I hope some of the rain comes your way.

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Yah.... the individual track models (look at the gray colored ones) north or north east which does not help the Texas/ Oklahoma drought problem....

The "ensemble" models (BAM, GFDL, UKMET, HWRF, etc.) are having problems because the storm is not organized enough to trigger consensus models. That will change by tonight.

At the least, much of the Gulf coast will likely get rain.

storm_93.gif

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