Mallette Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Eyeball and sensory observations from predawn. Humidity way up, upper level winds from the east and significant, wet clouds moving right along. All consistent with a developing low SE of Galveston. Godspeed to it! Even here, few remember Gilberto from 4 years ago. It developed less than a 100 miles off Galveston starting from nothing, to low, to TD, to TS, to hurricane in less than 24 hours and came ashore with basically no warning. Did a lot of damage to the Bolivar area. It was the smallest I've ever seen at perhaps TS winds reaching my house at 40 miles from the eye. Nonetheless it serves as fair warning that the NWS and all of us can be caught off gaurd. Dave PS - Mid afternoon update. I am seeing significant clouds and visible arcing in them. Easterly upper level winds have picked up. Up the liklihood of a nearby low developing. Looks like a decent chance of rain by nightfall if it keeps up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The most relevant part of the latest prediction on Depression Thirteen" THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVYRAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. Unfortunately, that doesn't include much of Texas other than Houston for the next couple of days. It is scheduled to hit land just before dinner on Saturday and not leave Mississippi until after midnight, Monday morning. The rain has already started and will go on for a while. Dave, stop smiling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Last observation for the night. Stiff easterly winds, clouds moving in and visible arc. Not smiling yet, but a bit of a grin. Not a prediction, but it should be noted that we could be 36-48 hours from a significant storm landfall. I'll take what we can get. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 NWS is finally catching up. As my weather mentor the legendary Harold Taft used to say "Let's take a look outside..." Harold was either the first, or one of the first, TV weathermen in the world. He ruled the DFW airwaves until giving his last forecast about 2 weeks before dieing of cancer in the late 90's. He'd start his forecast by going over the computer models and NWS forecast but often conclude (after taking look outside...something NWS seems to have forgotten how to do) with "...but here is what I think is REALLY going to happen..." Great man, who mixed science with native weather sense. Anyway, rotation is clear and defined this morning. That TD has tremendous potential for fast growth if you recall my mention of Gilberto. Looks like the very welcome cool front headed our way is going to prevent most of the state from getting the blessings from this event, but I still think we'll see some benefit on Galveston Bay. Told my family last night no reason to change any plans at the moment, but that a large storm might make landfall nearby in the next 24-36 hours. It was news to them... I have my fingers crossed. Cum'on baby! Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted September 2, 2011 Moderators Share Posted September 2, 2011 If we could just send some of our forecast weather to Texas that would be great. ThisAfternoonHeavyRainHi 88 °F TonightHeavyRainLo 75 °F SaturdayHeavyRainHi 85 °F SaturdayNightHeavyRainLo 75 °F SundayHeavyRainHi 86 °F SundayNightTrop. StormConditionsPossibleLo 74 °F LaborDayTrop. StormConditionsPossibleHi 85 °F MondayNightTrop. StormConditionsPossibleLo 71 °F TuesdayTstmsLikelyHi 87 °F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Watched the skies all day and my heart sank as it was apparent the storm was making a hard right. POS. We can't catch a break. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 This is a slow moving puppy, 2 knots per hour so when it does hit land, it's going to drop a lot of rain for an extended period of time. I'm not sure when you said you were looking for rain, you meant 65 mph and it staying for 48 hours. The latest forecast has it entering Louisiana and then doing a right turn and heading directly over New Orleans on Monday morning. Of course, New Orleans is already getting rain and it will continue into Tuesday. Flooding is possible with this rain maker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted September 2, 2011 Moderators Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's been raining here all day, South of the lake it rained all day yesterday. I think were going to get a little rain, for a few days [] Don't worry about flooding here, the closest we have ever been was a few years ago. New Orleans got like 15 inches in one day and we never got a drop here, 60 miles north of the city. The next day New Orleans never got any but we got 21 inches in 24 hours, it was reported as 20 inches but our rain gauge said 21, either way it rained ALOT, I have never see rain like that before. We are where the red arrow is pointing, we might get wet ?[] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JL Sargent Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah, we were supposed to drive down to Gulf Shores tonight and stay through Monday. Changed plans this morning when we saw that the gulf is supposed to reach 16ft waves my Monday. Naw, I ain't gettin out in that stuff![N] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Not much change, except the track paths are getting tighter. . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Katia's tracks are getting closer together and all of the consensus models now turn it before it gets near the US. Only the UKMET continues on a westerly track. . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 The NHC analysis. . . HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2011 KATIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION FORMING AN UNSHAPELY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED EITHER WITH THE HURRICANE HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT STILL SUPPORT 65 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT WERE A LITTLE WEAKER GIVEN THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR CONTINUE TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE STARTING ON SUNDAY. THUS SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME IN THE NHC FORECAST. AFTERWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME RATHER LOW BY DAY 4 AS AN UPPER-HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE KATIA MOVES OVER 29C WATER TEMPERATURES. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...NEAREST THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS...BUT THEN IS BLENDED A LITTLE HIGHER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY NOT HANDLING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CORRECTLY. KATIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THIS GENERAL TRACK GOING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UKMET MODEL HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE...WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE TO A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE UKMET SOLUTION IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR AS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF/GFS/GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.3N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.1N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 22.2N 59.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 23.4N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 26.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 28.5N 67.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 31.0N 70.0W 95 KT 110 MPH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Putting up my weather hat in disgust. I may have predicted Lee 3 days before it formed, but I am totally flabbergasted that it dang near did an about face from where I expected it to land. I understand why people don't like Houston, but it's obvious that God is also not a fan... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 We're just now starting to get the outer bands as they swirl southward. A slow soaking rain, just what we need. If you hold your tongue right Dave, you may see a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 We're just now starting to get the outer bands as they swirl southward. A slow soaking rain, just what we need. If you hold your tongue right Dave, you may see a little. Well, I did note this AM that the rainfall had moved a good hundred miles west to Beaumont. Good for you! We MIGHT see a bit of it, but I don't have high hopes...except of being wrong! Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It rained here ALL day today. You can just hear the ground say aaaaaaaah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It rained here ALL day today. You can just hear the ground say aaaaaaaah. I wish I had your good luck charm, and you had a doo wacka doo wacka doo wacka doo wacka doo. We are getting a drizzle. If it keeps up all night it will make for a good watering. I suppose I should give thanks for small favors at church tomorrow, but at sunset we had a nice rainbow which I mentioned to my wife was God's promise not to flood the earth again. He is fulfilling it to Texas in spades. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I wish I had your good luck charm, and you had a doo wacka doo wacka doo wacka doo wacka doo. You forgot to mention my stunning good looks. That alone is worth another doo wacka doo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted September 4, 2011 Moderators Share Posted September 4, 2011 [] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WS65711 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It rained here ALL day today. You can just hear the ground say aaaaaaaah. So far since the rain started here Friday afternoon for TS Lee, I've registered 15" inches in my backyard rain gauge.......... and the rain is supposed to continue through sometime Monday . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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