Mallette Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'd be interested in thoughts on this... Am I too optimistic? Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 "It will cost you nothing and be done in 10 years". The only problem with that theory is that most roads will need some sort of repair much sooner than that. One major repair to an interstate can take the whole road down. What are you going to do for the next 9 or so years for travel along that stretch? Yes, you're too optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 What are you going to do for the next 9 or so years for travel along that stretch? Nothing, Carl. Autonomous car can handle a road in bad repair at higher speeds and greater safety than any human. Why do you think the roads need to be better? Another point is the car is simply going from Point A to Point B and will choose a route that works based on all known and current information. A county road is as easy for it as the Interstate is for you, and it would use it without being prompted to get you around a damage or construction zone. "Optimism" is thinking that what we are doing makes any sense, or that you can drive better than a Googlemobile. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldenough Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Dave what is your end goal here...Cos correct me if I am wrong but it would seem it's not just to have good roads. As for your optimism...Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What are you going to do for the next 9 or so years for travel along that stretch? Nothing, Carl. Autonomous car can handle a road in bad repair at higher speeds and greater safety than any human. Why do you think the roads need to be better? Another point is the car is simply going from Point A to Point B and will choose a route that works based on all known and current information. A county road is as easy for it as the Interstate is for you, and it would use it without being prompted to get you around a damage or construction zone. "Optimism" is thinking that what we are doing makes any sense, or that you can drive better than a Googlemobile. Dave My point is that we still have to use the roads for the next 10 years while the system is being developed. They can't fall into disrepair while normal vehicles are still being used. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 But of course, Carl. For autonomous vehicle use, they are fine. That's a major advantage. In the more distant future, we'd certainly want to improve them, straighten some curves, and such. However, cutting the traffic on them by 50% certainly will improve lifespan. Part of the point is that no matter what shape they are in an autonomous vehicle will make better time and do it safer than a human. We already have at least twice as many roads, and they are much wider than necessary, for a totally autonomous fleet. No "system" has to be developed. It's already in place. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Dave what is your end goal here... This "goal" thing is what set me off. Heck, if it were just to make travel 90% safer that would be worth the whole process. But the more I've thought about it, the longer the list of byproducts becomes. More time, a cleaner environment. entirely new economic engines...basically, the early 1900s on steroids. My father was born in 1903, and to his last day he expressed absolute wonder at how the world I shared with him had NOTHING in coming with the world he was young in. Perhaps such vision runs in our blood, as my impression is that few seem to realize the mind boggling rate of change. Normally, paradigm shift is reserved for things we expect to happen, but remain out of reach at the moment. Things like unlimited clean energy from fusion, the limitless resources in near earth space, growing new organs, and the like. All those things are fully expected to happen...but haven't yet. The autonomous vehicle has HAPPENED, and simply needs to be implemented. The implications for our lives of this implementation forms a list too long to list. While I have a while to go, it was only a few weeks back I was thinking about how and when I'd realize it was time to put away my car keys and what a sad day that would be. When I looked at that Google YouTube with the 95% blind dude "driving" his care, the first thing that hit me was that I WOULDN'T HAVE TO! Don't know about you, but that alone sounds pretty good to me. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldenough Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Dave what is your end goal here... This "goal" thing is what set me off. Heck, if it were just to make travel 90% safer that would be worth the whole process. But the more I've thought about it, the longer the list of byproducts becomes. More time, a cleaner environment. entirely new economic engines...basically, the early 1900s on steroids. My father was born in 1903, and to his last day he expressed absolute wonder at how the world I shared with him had NOTHING in coming with the world he was young in. Perhaps such vision runs in our blood, as my impression is that few seem to realize the mind boggling rate of change. Normally, paradigm shift is reserved for things we expect to happen, but remain out of reach at the moment. Things like unlimited clean energy from fusion, the limitless resources in near earth space, growing new organs, and the like. All those things are fully expected to happen...but haven't yet. The autonomous vehicle has HAPPENED, and simply needs to be implemented. The implications for our lives of this implementation forms a list too long to list. While I have a while to go, it was only a few weeks back I was thinking about how and when I'd realize it was time to put away my car keys and what a sad day that would be. When I looked at that Google YouTube with the 95% blind dude "driving" his care, the first thing that hit me was that I WOULDN'T HAVE TO! Don't know about you, but that alone sounds pretty good to me. Dave I'm right with you Dave, but as much as I enjoy driving I would be aiming at doing away with the need for personal transport in it's entirety, also an aim that is as feasible as yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm right with you Dave, but as much as I enjoy driving I would be aiming at doing away with the need for personal transport in it's entirety, also an aim that is as feasible as yours Definite, and it might be a byproduct of that process. While I am totally confident as to how to begin, what the end might look like gets fuzzy. At ten years, I think my scenario isn't too far off with most of us having only a single personal vehicle and using shared and public ones for commute and such. However, it's also easy to see beyond that to a possibility of all vehicles being some sort of "public" and simply summoning one as required. Would that be private, competing companies? One large monopoly? Government? I haven't a clue. But I am certain it will be very, very different from today and it may happen so fast such that I am still around to discuss it here! Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 (edited) Since this has gotten some fun and interesting comments elsewhere, I decided just to copy it all here rather than via a link. I rarely click links myself and don't know why I'd expect others to. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=cdgQpa1pUUE It is well known that I am a space cadet, and of the opinion that humanities fate lies in the stars and not on earth. That said, here we are, and we have to make the best of it until folks understand that it’s only a lifeboat and supplies are running short. So, here is something we can fix. I am not going to throw out a lot of statistics, though I’ve reviewed a few and the numbers are staggering. Since 1956, we have spent 6.3 TRILLION dollars on the Interstate highway system alone. That does not count all the state, county, and local roads, which almost certainly account for at least as much. Since 1980, 1.4 million lives have been lost on US highways. If we assume an arbitrary, but not unrealistic value, of 1 million dollars per life, that’s 1.3 trillion dollars. Some big, serious, impressive numbers there BUT IT DOESN’T SCRATCH THE SURFACE. I don’t think I have ever used that many caps in a row, as it’s considered a pretty sorry excuse for good writing…but in this case, it is important. UPS, pizza, groceries, buses, in fact, all vehicles now in use and used for any purpose to get either people or items from point A to point B. can and should be autonomous as quickly as possible. The most conservative estimates are that commute times would be cut by 40% and freeway capacities doubled with autonomous vehicles. Other estimates are much higher. Estimates for accidental death are that it would be cut by at least 90%. Let this sink in! The actual implications are so startling as to lead to confusion. It isn’t just about better safety and lowered costs of highways; it is an economic change that will dwarf that of the changes wrought by the automobile itself. If you accept what I’ve just said and realize the incredible benefits, your next thought is probably “How are we going to be able to afford this, and how long will it take? As usual, I have a “clever and cunning plan,” to quote Edmund Blackadder’s faithful servant. The answers, in order are: It will cost you nothing, and can be done in 10 years. Here’s how. 1. Freeze highway construction and complete only those projects now in progress. 2. Use the money saved to subsidize the entire cost of the automation system on every purchaser’s next new car. 3. As projects are completed, keep the tax income steady to increase the pace of conversion. 4. Make HOV lanes available ONLY to autonomous vehicles. 5. Add the “fast lane” of freeways as soon as possible. 6. Add lanes until only autonomous vehicle are allowed to enter a freeway. 7. When autonomous vehicle saturation is reached, make manual driving illegal except in specified locations. Undoubtedly plenty to debate there, but conceptually viable. The potential for improvement in our lives, the economy, and the environment from such a program vastly outpaces any other area we could spend money on by huge amounts. One or more persons you know and love will live if we do this, and will not if we don’t. What would things look like in ten years? Here is what I believe can be said without a doubt, as it is based on what we already know and have seen demonstrated. >There will be no speed limit. Speed limits are for people. Machines will always move at “reasonable and prudent” speeds because that is what they do. This may be a hundred miles per hour or more even in a city if it is in a slack traffic period. That is with current technology. The ultimate speed limits for autonomous vehicles are governed only by physics and technology. >Passenger rail of all types, commuter or long haul, will be obsolete. We are living in the past, planning for the past, and must wake up. Unlike the Apollo program or the Manhattan project, the technology is already here and proven. America can once again lead the world into a brighter future, and all we need is the will. >Reliance on short haul air service will be drastically reduced. Aircraft are notoriously inefficient for short hauls. DFW to Houston, for instance. However, they are relied on today even though the drive time isn’t much different from the amount of time spent getting to the airport, through security, and all the other overhead that comes with flying because the drive is difficult and laborious at the best of times. At a hundred miles per hour, it’s only a little over 2 hours of productive time and you leave from your home or office and go directly to your destination with a reliability factor even greater than that of flying. >Medium haul air service will be reduced as well. An entirely new business will spring up based on autonomous technology. There will be short, overnight, vehicles that feature seats that recline to make beds and some basic creature comforts. These will be used for travel involving overnight trips of 1,000 to 2,000 miles and be rented. Costs will be competitive to current air fares and cheaper than travel by current automobiles in taking less time and requiring no motel stays. Longer, vacation or tour type trips will be done in autonomous RV-type vehicles with kitchen, bath, bed and such similar to today’s RVs…except faster, better, and cheaper. >Many families will have only one car at most. Cars will travel point to point, and then be used by others. They may belong to private enterprise, the auto builders, government…my crystal ball isn’t clear on that, but it will be pointless to spend money on something that sits in your driveway much of the time. >A way to help the elderly, the poor, and the handicapped at very little cost. Before the conservatives out there eyes glaze over, bear in mind that first descriptor is YOU someday. We all have to face the day, perhaps by having an accident we would not have had with better hearing, reflexes, vision, or whatever combination gradually occurs from aging, when we are forced to hand up the keys. As long as you can get to the car, you will never lose your liberty. If the car finds you unresponsive, it will likely contact someone and head for the nearest ER. Then, of course, there are the blind, the deaf, the physically disabled. Freedom of movement...a great gift for all of us. I am not a “seer” and probably not even that well qualified as a futurist, but those things just listed require only the application of existing technology to realize. The 20th century was molded by the likes of Henry Ford, Nicolai Tesla, John D. Rockefeller, Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates who had the vision to make things happen. I have little doubt they could see and fully understood what they were doing. They built our world on new ideas and concepts that had to be built from the ground up. What we are discussing here is not in that category at all, simply an extension of the technology and infrastructure built by these entrepreneurial geniuses. We are living in the past, planning for the past, and must wake up. Unlike the Apollo program or the Manhattan project, the technology is already here and proven. America can once again lead the world into a brighter future, and all we need is the will. Edited December 8, 2013 by Mallette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shakeydeal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Some people still enjoy the driving "experience". If one chooses an autonomous car, fine. But to force it on everyone smacks of the kind of liberalism this country is deeply mired in now. Shakey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 (edited) Shakey, you have NO idea just how fiercely freedom loving I am. However, as I don't agree with freedom to kill my neighbor, I would not allow the freedom for a person to "control" a vehicle that was 99% less likely to kill me, my family, or my friend under automated control. Respectfully, I think you are not thinking straight on this. Is it worth 10s of thousands of deaths and a million completely unnecessary injuries, billions in lost income and health care costs, trillions in completely unnecessary construction of more immediately congested highways, and millions of hours of lost productive time per year just so you can do a really bad job of driving on your own? I did my time under the flag to protect a lot of rights others have been quick to let go in the name of "security" and other crap. This isn't one of them. We have the freedom of movement, but you can't exercise it when you are stuck in a totally unnecessary traffic jam whilst waiting for what used to be a family that was killed by a drunk or distracted human driver. We can fix that, and we should. Dave Edited December 8, 2013 by Mallette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shakeydeal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 While I can see the benefits, it is not something I want foisted upon me by my government. There is far too much regulation in our lives now. When I want to jump on my Harley and take a road trip, the last thing I want is to be told that road is off limits to me. Voluntary participation only, or not at all. Shakey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 I don't see a reason for it to be mandatory for 6 or 7 years, and then only on freeways until the conversion is complete. I know I don't want you, or anyone else, holding up traffic on a speed limitless freeway, and I darn sure don't want you, or anyone else, driving a car manually in orderly traffic moving at a hundred MPH a few feet apart. That is, well, insane. I presume you enjoy being stuck in traffic. I don't. Other things I'd rather do. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shakeydeal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I DO enjoy riding my bike and driving my car. And I won't have that taken away by "well meaning" politicians. I think I can decipher where you come down politically from this thread. Shakey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Bet you can't, Shakey. I do come from common sense, howver. I don't think the laws disallowing motor scooters and such that cannot meet the minimum speed on a freeway should be changed. As to the politicians, they will have to be forced into this by the people as they are the greatest blocks we have to restoring freedom and common sense in spending. There will always be places where people can drive manually if they wish to do so...someplace safe where they can no longer kill anybody while texting or arguing with their SO. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taz Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Seen where a family not familiar with this area took the advised route on their remote access to directions device (whatever you call it) and got stuck in the snow on a mountain road. Results, vehicle ran out of fuel, they burned all the tires for warmth, husband died while trying to walk out and get help. Not all the roads in this area go completely through to another road whatever the computer driving instructions say. Your thoughts appears good on the surface. However I prefer to use my own judgement. I don't like Big Brother following where I go. I stopped keeping track of where I fill up for fuel years ago when I realized that it could be used to track my movements. Call me paranoid if you will. I probably am, I admit it. Not that I do illegal things or go where I should not. I just like my privacy. This automated driving might be OK IF can just switch it off when desired. Some of the features I could tolerate. Some I can not. It would be nice to be able to sleep while going on a long trip though. But only if I choose to use that function at that time. John 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldenough Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I have taken an interest in this thread, along with Daves blog, I along with Dave think this sort of thing will have to happen. It doesn't have to be "foisted" upon us, nor does it have to be mandatory, there will be lots (I believe) who would gladly embrace a well thought out system, with plenty of space and opportunity for those of us who still want to ride or drive. Think about it, your week-end rides, along with mine, could be even more enjoyable for it, and the daily commute would certainly be so, nobody enjoys the traffic jam... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shakeydeal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The operative word here is "choice". I do see the positives. But only if it is optional and not mandatory. Shakey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 (edited) This is not an overnight thing, Shakey. I've suggested a decade. Folks like you will come around once you consider the costs in lives, property, and treasure the current complete insanity on our highways costs us, and completely unnecessarily. Most can't use the HOV lanes now anyway as it takes at least two in the car and costs quite a bit as well in some places. Autonomous vehicles would use it free, since at least 5 times as many of them could operate safely (that's just current estimates, not the theoretical maximum). Those would be the first to be autonomous only, and I think the sight of everyone else getting to work twice as fast as you while eating breakfast...or making love...would cause a bit of rethinking. You seem to suggest somehow that putting others at risk is somehow an essential liberty. I disagree. Your freedom ends where my nose begins. Dave Edited December 8, 2013 by Mallette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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