Hurricane season is fast approaching

[Dflip]

It's that time of the year and the first signs of a tropical storm in the Atlantic in 2009. Way too early to predict whether this will become a hurricane of not, but... the prime season is between August 15 and the end of September.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT

COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS

IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM

CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

NNNN

[CECAA850]

I'm glad to see that someone is posting hurricane info since Groomie left the forum,

Thanks.

Carl

[dtel]

G r e a t [li]

I hope Marshal comes back to the forum, not just for this just in general.

[dtel's wife]

Carl, here's a head's up to you! I have put the pertinent info in bold/italics. I checked your local area forecast and there is no mention of what I have posted from our local NOAA office.

This is hot off the press from our local NOAA Area Forecast Office:

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT STALLS EITHER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
BY THU NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT
THU WILL CUT OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF BY FRI. THIS
LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX. THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP DOWN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. THEN WE INTRODUCE A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBDUCT THE UPPER HIGH WHERE THERE WILL BE WEAK SHEAR AND A VERY
HOSPITABLE REGION FOR GROWTH. WE MAY SEE THIS AS SOON AS SUNDAY.
WOULD NORMALLY DISMISS THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION SO FAR OUT BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL INITIALIZING VERY WELL AND SHOW THE MODERATE
TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
ROTATION WELL ABOVE THE SFC ALONG 44W. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR
MAYBE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...NOT THE ONE THAT IS GARNISHING
ALL THE ATTENTION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TIMING REMAINS SKETCHY AT
BEST BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE PEAK OF
THE SEASON. NOT VERY OFTEN THAT I WILL MAKE ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO
THE EXTENDED BUT HAVE OPTED TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY. IF THIS CURRENT MODEL TREND
CONTINUES THESE NUMBERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER.

Just what we wanted to hear. I hate living down here!

[Mr. RF62]

I was wondering when that was starting up again, not something to look forward to at all!!! What/where did Groomy go?? I must have missed a thread.

[dtel's wife]

Mr. RF,

I am not sure what happened to him. I know he is usually busy with jr. cadets this time of year....but I noticed on his previous posts that his signature line says something like, "No longer an active member of this forum". I asked Amy about that line and she wasn't even aware it was on his posts. His email account link has also been deleted.

I really like Groomy. He and his family have visited our home for overnight stays on their way to Arkansas (to visit family) and they are really great folks to hang out with. I sure do miss him.

[dtel's wife]

He didn't even tell us goodbye![*-)] Hurricane season is not a fun time for me. I don't think any of us down this way actually enjoy it. LOL Seriously, it gets old after a while. You never know when "the big one" will take everything you own. It's sad really.

[Daddy Dee]

I talked with Marshall a few weeks ago. He said he's giving "covered up" a whole new meaning.

Getting ready for hurricane season is among the things on his plate. He's also hoping to retire in the near future and training a replacement is a top priority and time consuming, too.

He sounds OK and wishes all his forum buddies well.

BTW, he sent a pair of Heresy II grills he had fabricated and covered. Tony Reed and I were inspecting them and had a hard time distinguishing them from an OEM pair. His work on these things is near perfection,.

[dtel's wife]

Dee,

I am glad someone has talked to him. I honestly haven't tried to call him, because I thought he may just want us to leave him alone. You know I am really fond of him and his family. I really miss his sense of humor.

I knew he was wanting to retire as quickly as possible. That's a real tough job he has down there. Please keep us updated.

[Daddy Dee]

Dee,

I am glad someone has talked to him. I honestly haven't tried to call him, because I thought he may just want us to leave him alone. You know I am really fond of him and his family. I really miss his sense of humor.

I knew he was wanting to retire as quickly as possible. That's a real tough job he has down there. Please keep us updated.

You bet. Arkansas is where they are hoping to retire. His wife's family is from Norh Litle Rock. They have been thinking of building a house in the neighborhood of Subiaco Abbey. It's beautiful country up there, a bit north and west of Little Rock.

[dtel's wife]

At least they would be a little closer to all of us. Right now he's about 14 to 16 hours from us and we are about 8 hours from Hope. Staying here overnight really worked out good for them and we really enjoyed the company.

[CECAA850]

He called me on my cell phone a few weeks ago out of the clear blue. He said he wanted to be sure I was still happy with the Heresy cabinets he veneered for me. It doesn't seem he left the forum strictly from a "too busy" standpoint but he had nothing negative to say either. It was a strange call. He was going to build me a pair of riseres, but apparantly they're way on the back burner now. Don't read anything negative into this post please, I like the heck out of Groomie.

Carl

[Mr. RF62]

He didn't even tell us goodbye! Hurricane season is not a fun time for me. I don't think any of us down this way actually enjoy it. LOL Seriously, it gets old after a while. You never know when "the big one" will take everything you own. It's sad really.

I bet that it gets old after a while! We don't get THAT severe of storms up here so it puts me wanting to see or experience these things(storm chasing?) closer. When we get a thunder storm, I have to pretty much sit out and watch it as I get transfixed upon the lightning thats all around. I find weather to be fascinating, although in these parts, being a meterologist doesn't seems to be fun anymore as they are wrong 70% of the time. Something that you guys would not want to count on. Are you able to tell when a storm is about to approach, or you just keep an eye on the NOAA???

[Dflip]

Tropical Depression Two is the new name. The suggested tracks have it heading north of the islands and then it either heads north into the northern Atlantic or continues westward. Still too early to tell, but it may miss everything. It's still early and the first ones aren't usually the worst, unless of course your name is Andrew.

Please remember these are only projections and they change as the storm approaches land. The further out you go time wise, the less accurate the projection. Katrina kicked east at the end and just missed New Orleans, but still did a ton of damage and Ike started near Galvaston, tracked towards Mexican/Texas border and then headed back toward Galvaston.

A couple of sites to take a look at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.stormpulse.com/

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I'm able to keep an eye of these until school starts after Labour Day.Then I get really busy. That's why Groomie was so good at this and I wish I had his emergency list. Here it is: http://community.klipsch.com/forums/t/104884.aspx?PageIndex=25

·
Make sure you have a
camera with fresh batteries. Both for photos of any damage as it occurs and
afterwards as it documents your expenses and mitigation efforts for insurance
(not to mention good pictures for the Forum,.....)

·
Have 55 gallon garbage
bags handy. You can use them for a lot of mitigation things, and.... to cover
expensive items (Klipsch.... ) in the event of a sheathing failure that
opens the roof.

·
Move all very expensive
stuff (e.g. Klipsch...) away from the walls. The "best practice" is
to actually move every possible thing away from any and all walls that are
opposite exterior walls. That's where the problems will surface.

·
Open all drapes and
blinds, and using a rag to hold them open, duct tape around the rag. Reason:
you can immediately see if there are any leaks.

·
Strategically place a
mop bucket and mop where you can get to it. Try to come up with about 10 WalMart
"tubs". The 18 gallon kind. You will need them for wet towels, and
also if you have water streaming in anywhere.

·
Strategically place at
least 4-5 towels, a WalMart tub, and a roll of duct tape next to the
windows so if there is a failure on the roof, or the windows leak anywhere, you
can use the towels to sop it up. We keep about 100 old cotton towels in several
WalMart "tubs" just for hurricanes.

·
If there is water coming
in around the windows, duct tape 55 gallon drum liner to sides and on the
window sill, and put loose end folded over into a tub, This will keep the water
off the floor and walls and direct it to the tubs.

·
If there is a
catastrophic failure to any section of the roof, i.e. a piece of sheathing
comes off, put WalMart tubs underneath where the water is pouring in.
Then isolate that room by shutting the door, and duct tape towels to the
bottom of the door on the inside. Then put towels around the bottom of the door
on the outside of the door. If you can, you can also duct tape the 55 gallon
drum liners (overlapped) along the wall and direct the water to a tub.

·
When the roof leaks, it
will generally leak at the edges and the visible effect is water coming in
around windows. Dependent on the design, if your house has ridge vents, unless
they are the newer CAT-3 type (higher "lip") there may be leaks and
the water will run down the sheathing and you will see water along the edges of
the walls/ceilings. Many newer homes no longer use ridge venting and rely only
on soffit vents.

·
On the front door, or
whatever primary home exit door is on the windward side, go outside and duct
tape the gap between the door and the frame. Even the best door seals begin to
leak at about 75 mph. The duct tape will prevent that.

·
Until the power dies,
keep the A/C running to remove humidity. When the power dies, go to the main
breaker box, and turn off all breakers except one "strategic" one. I
recommend the living room. Keep one light on so if power comes back there are
no massive surges to anything except your light bulb....

·
If you have a garage,
ideally park your car in the garage. Place a sheet of 4x8 plywood between
the bumper and the garage door. Carefully put it in reverse and back up very
slowly and push against the plywood. Put it in park and that will prevent the
wind from taking out the garage door if it's on the windward side.

·
Check every room with a
flashlight every 5-10 minutes. You will be busy as a one legged man in a butt
kickin contest for at least 12-16 hours..... Concentrate on the windward rooms.

·
If the "surge"
is not too bad and you are not underwater...., you can actually go outside
during the "event" on the leeward side and work your way around and
take a quick look at the roof and see if tiles are coming off. Trick is to have
two doors between you and the point of exit. The garage doors work for me
because the inner garage door to the house is well sealed and the air pressure
differential is not much. Once I get out into the first garage, I can then use
either the north bay door or the south exit door, dependent....

In the things not to do for a hurricane (trust me...).

No matter how many tears the WAF sheds, how sorry you feel for them, etc. DO NOT bring the outside pets inside. They are smarter than us and always "escape" to the leeward side until it's over. They may give you a dirty look when it's over but a can of tuna will make them all happy and loving again.....

For Frances... my wife decided the cats and the dog needed to be inside.... So, even though I knew what would happen, she would not hear it... we compromised and in the inner garage they went with a plywood panel to keep them out of my "garage", aka: the workshop.... Well, hurricanes sound like a giant freight train coming over and they went nuts and "turded" everything.... Whatta' mess.. We don't talk about the cats, dogs, etc anymore. We make sure they have a good meal before it starts, and they haul butt to wherever they want (usually in the horse trailer parked nose to the wind...)

Inside pets? Just leave them alone, talk to them, and pet them every few minutes and make sure their litter box is fresh.... If they see you are not scared totally witless, they will generally follow you around and help investigate...... Feed them tuna fish; it's pure protein and will cut down on the number of poops that you will have to deal with..... Never lock them in a room that you are not in, or they will go nuts as the "fright train" is passing over...

Clean up

Glad to see that it appears everyone made it through safe and sound. From experience in dealing with 2 weeks without power....., there are a number of things I do (and I handle safety/PIO for our Emergency Management during and after these "events").

For those who stay (I know it's common sense, but I'll throw it out there anyways...):

• Get in the FEMA or EMgt "ice" lines and try to get ice every day. Try to find bleach, at least 5 gallons. Or even better, pool chlorine in jugs. Try to get at a couple pints of fuel line dryer. Always scoop up some batteries, etc. when they are available. Grab styro coolers if they are around, reasonable or free.....
• Until you have power, or are ready to turn a generator on, absolutely turn off every light switch and the master breaker in your house. Also (best practice...) turn off all sub-breakers. When the power comes back on, and you turn the master breaker on, you won't have sudden massive surge/drop-out as everything in the house tries to turn back on at the same time. Turn on one breaker at a time, starting with A/C, then kitchen, etc.
• If you have a stand alone freezer, get everything you can out of any refrigerator freezers and pack it in the stand-alone. The more you fill up one freezer, the longer it will stay "frozen". Put as many bags of ice in that freezer as you can along with the food.
• If you do not have a stand alone freezer, turn the refrigerator off, and use coolers and ice for perishable items. The more ice, the better. Now's a good time to defrost the refrigerator and clean.... If you do not have coolers, but can get ice, put the bags of ice in the bottom of the fridge in the "vegetable bins". That way when it melts, it's in the bin for dumping...
• Sort perishables into "play lists" to eat, and pack the items that you will eat into coolers with the "menu" in order of consumption.
• If you have a generator hooked into the house system (with the switch box, etc.), great! But... fuel consumption is related to the load. Turn off the hot water heater and set the A/C to about 80. Be brutal and only turn on absolutely what you need. Avoid using stove/oven if you can. Microwave if necessary, they draw alot but cook fast.
• If you do not have a generator, see if your neighbor(s) have one you can borrow for a few hours each day in return for paying for fuel later.
• If using a generator, set the freezer or fridge at the coldest temperature.
• Never open the fridge or freezer unless you absolutely need to remove what you are going to eat and know what you want in advance so the door does not stay open for very long.
• Start cleaning up "stuff" now. That's where the 10,000 towels that I keep come in handy.... Dirty towels in a wallmart "tub", outside so the humidity is not added to the house. Wet but not dirty towels? Hang them outside to dry. Old school, but what the hey!
• If you have a ladder, go on your roof and make sure any tiles "flipped up", are flipped down. If missing tiles, you can temp seal the edges and any exposed roof tile nails with silicone. Do not "nail" tiles down, or nail anything through the remaining tiles, etc. unless you know you will replace the roof..... Reason? Water is like nature... It will find a way to get in around the nails, etc.
• If you had any leaks, get into your attic as soon as possible and find the wet insulation and get it out as fast as possible. You can replace it later. Reason? It holds water, takes forever to dry out and will grow mold on the ceiling drywall. Actually, you should get up there and check anyways, especially below ridge vents and along the areas where the trusses meet the walls.
• If you have a small generator and it's not capable of a 240V feed to an A/C (usually 12K or bigger), try to obtain fans. Keep the fans running in only those rooms you occupy. Keep all other doors shut. If your Klipsch stuff is in another room, keep that door open and the fan pointed at your "electronics".
• Humidity sits low and heat sits high. Aim fans up at a 30 degree angle to force the dry air to come down, pick up the humidity, etc.
• If no A/C, keep windows shut until any flooding subsides to keep excess humidity out of the house. If you open windows, try to only open windows on the windward and leeward sides to keep a flow of air through the house. position fans near the windward windows to increase air flow.
• Try to only open windows in the evening when the humidity condenses out of the air and there is less humidity in the air flow. If water got in, keep the windows open as described to accelerate the drying process.
• If water got in anywhere, put bleach in a "squeeze" bottle. Ideally if you can find a store that's open, Tilex grout cleaner spray is the best. Spray this stuff every six hours on drywall, etc. and it will prevent mold. Do this for at least a week or until your drywall is "dry" and hard to the fingernail like before the storm.
• If the water system is "city water", great!! If you are on a well like most of rural Florida.... here's the rule: If it's yellow, let it mellow... If it's brown, put it down.... 2 oz of bleach in the toilet will keep it safe for a number of "doo-doos". If there is standing water anywhere outside, get at least 3-4 buckets of water and keep them handy outside. Once a day "flush" the toilet with a bucket of water, and then add couple ounces of bleach. Use only ONE toilet until power/water comes back on.
• If you have lawnmowers, drain the fuel to use in a generator or put it in your primary vehicle. If you are low on fuel in your primary vehicle and have another vehicle, "siphon" (the old redneck credit card trick...) that fuel out into fuel containers or milk/ bleach/ water jugs and put it in your primary vehicle.
• Meat in the freezer that you will have to eat? Want to cook and have fun... Here's the chance to make an old style redneck BBQ.... 4 cinder blocks and a piece of "pressed metal" grating (or you can always use an old refrigerator shelf....). Piece of foil on ground (keeps moisture out of wood), line with the cinder blocks. Use "dead fall" wood or charcoal. Don't use "debris" wood as it is likely pine or spruce and has fire retardant chemicals like cyanide compounds that are not good for you... Use mineral spirits as lighter fluid (that's what BBQ lighter fluid is, and they charge you 10 times more for the "BBQ" label....)
• Unless it's absolutely necessary, always have someone in yor house. Dependent upon where you live..... stay armed... People get pretty desperate after 2-3 weeks without gas, power, etc and sometimes wander around looking for easy targets.

Hope that helps some if you are going to be "refugees" for a week or so.

[dtel]

Are you able to tell when a storm is about to approach, or you just keep an eye on the NOAA???

Everyone even a couple hundred miles from the coast watches and here all the local news has nothing else on if something is within range, you need at least 2 days to get out, any later and you will just sit on the interstate. We were lucky for katrina they had estimated 140 mph sustained winds where we live. We don't stay if it's over like a cat 2, but we don't flood here so all we have to worry about is the wind.

I built the house myself, I know the house it strong but I still thought we would at least lose the metal roof but we had no damage, one neighbor lost his barn and his roof and the neighbor across the street lost his barn roof also, we were lucky ! We live in the country both of those neighbors are about 600 and 900 feet away the next is a few thousand feet away.

[colterphoto1]

I emailed with Marshall today.He's fine but very busy still. Between family duty and increased work responsibility he's still covered up. This thread looks like a good start to tracking and reporting in the Groomlakearea style. Take care of each other !

Michael

[CECAA850]

I emailed with Marshall today.He's fine but very busy still.

That's good to hear.

[dtel]

Yes glad to hear that, been thinking about him.

[dtel's wife]

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

WTNT42 KNHC 150840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ANA. THE STORM IS DISPLAYING IMPROVED BANDING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. NOAA
BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1005 MB AS THE
DEPRESSION PASSED VERY NEAR THE BUOY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE
TRACK OF ANA GRADUALLY BENDING FROM A WEST TO A WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS TO THIS TRACK ARE THE GFDL AND GFS...WHICH BOTH WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS
APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
25N 65W. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO
ANA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS ADVISORY...
BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 0000 UTC GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A MORE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES...SHOWING A
WEAKER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BUILD UPPER-RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH LIGHT
SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR DEVELOPING IN ABOUT A DAY...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL HAS LIGHTER
SHEAR CONDITIONS IN A FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RUNS THE
FULL SPECTRUM THIS MORNING...WITH THE GFDL DISSIPATING THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.6N 46.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 49.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.3N 52.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.1N 56.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 60.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 67.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 26.0N 78.5W 60 KT

[dtel's wife]

Here's the five day cone: