Hurricane Season - 2011

Dflip · August 23, 2011

The 11 a.m update with a slightly reduced intensity predicted. Now Irene will "only" be a CAT 3 hurricane. For those in the Baltimore/Washington area, the current projection has Irene still as a hurricane (CAT 1) as it hits Chesapeake Bay because there is no major landmass to take away its energy from the Atlantic Ocean. Keep an eye on this girl, by Thursday you should have a very good idea what is coming your way.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE... WHILE
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTH.
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 77
AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS MORNING HAD ISSUES WITH THE ON-BOARD RADAR.
THIS REQUIRED A CHANGE IN AIRCRAFT AND THE NEW PLANE JUST PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTER...REPORTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB...ABOUT
THE SAME AS DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION.

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE
IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
INCREASES BY DAY THREE...RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TO WELL OFFSHORE...WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND
THE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
UPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE
THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE
200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 20.5N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 21.3N  72.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 22.3N  73.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 23.6N  75.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 25.3N  76.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 29.2N  77.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 33.0N  77.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 37.5N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Dflip · August 23, 2011

The next two storms off the coast of Africa look like they are headed out to the North Atlantic like most of last year. A well deserved break after Irene for at least two weeks.

Dflip · August 23, 2011

It looks like an eye is trying to form for Irene.

This image of Irene gives you an idea why they say you don't want to be on the northeast side of a hurricane when it hits. All of its natural energy is to the right and that area takes the strongest hit. The hurricane sucks up water/energy on its left side and then it is dispersed on the right with all of its power. It also explains why when hurricanes hit land they lose a lot of their energy because most of the land in the U.S. is too the left of the hurricane and it no longer feeds the hurricane the further it gets inland.

Dflip · August 23, 2011

Here is the 11 p.m. update for Irene. The 5 day forecast continues to move a bit to the east every three hour forecast, at least over the last 24 hours. Cape Hatteras is in Irene's sights, as well as the Atlantic Coast of New Jersey, and Long Island. The NOAA forecast is to the west of a number of the computer models, so there is a potential for it to miss a lot of the coast. Down the road, there may be very strong winds, rain, and flooding that could affect New York, Boston, Maine and New Brunswick.

Some of you might get lucky with it just staying far enough off shore.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

IT IS FORTUNATE THAT WE HAVE A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET SAMPLING THE
ENVIRONMENT OF IRENE AND TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE FROM
NOAA AND THE OTHER FROM THE AIR FORCE...IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
TONIGHT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH A RAGGED EYE
EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW.  THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE INCREASE OF BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM BOTH PLANES HAS COME
DOWN TO 969 MB AND THE MAX FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 101
KNOTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE SFMR INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80
KNOTS.  IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS AND ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ABOUT A
DAY. 

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE OF 8 KNOTS. SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN...THERE IS NO REASON TO MODIFY THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD PARALLELING THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST COAST AND VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS. IRENE
SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND EVEN THE STUBBORN GFDL WHICH PREVIOUSLY INSISTED ON BRINGING
IRENE TOWARD FLORIDA HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST EVEN MORE.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
LONGER LEAD TIMES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 21.3N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 22.0N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 23.5N  75.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 27.5N  77.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 31.0N  77.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 36.0N  76.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 40.5N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Groomlakearea51 · August 24, 2011

Here's a nice graphic. Bookmark it and leave it open and you can watch the path as it progresses.

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker

Groomlakearea51 · August 24, 2011

Here's the MIL estimate.

NOTE THE "ARCS" OF WIND SPEED. FORGET THE TRACK PATH, PAY ATTENTION TO THE ARCS OF THE ASSOCIATED WINDFIELD.

.

Groomlakearea51 · August 24, 2011

Here's the track paths:

.

Groomlakearea51 · August 24, 2011

And the wind speed probabilities:

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30)
CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 5(31)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 5(43)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 28(44) 1(45)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 30(47) 1(48)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

Dflip · August 24, 2011

The 5 p.m update and Irene is going to intensify again. It's going to be a CAT 4 hurricane, but will cross Cape Haterras (mid Saturday afternoon) as a lower level CAT 3. It looks like a CAT 2 approaching Long Island (later Sunday afternoon) and a bit lower as it nears Boston/Cape Cod.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.  THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON.  A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE.  BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.



THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.  BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME.  THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  24/2100Z 23.1N  74.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 24.3N  75.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 26.1N  76.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 28.2N  77.3W  115 KT 135 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 30.1N  77.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 34.3N  75.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 39.5N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 47.0N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Dflip · August 24, 2011

The 11 pm update.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
952 MB...BUT THE MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED SO FAR WAS 99 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 105 KNOTS. I WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO
FINISH SAMPLING THE HURRICANE BEFORE REDUCING THE WINDS A LITTLE
BIT...IF NECESSARY. BY INSPECTING AN EARLIER TRMM PASS FROM 2216
UTC...AND AND SSMIS AT 0024 UTC...ONE CAN OBSERVE CONCENTRIC
CONVECTIVE RINGS SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
OCCURRING. THESE TWO EYEWALLS WERE ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THIS EYEWALL CYCLE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE TREND
IS FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS....IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER
SSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...
OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOME OF THE
BAHAMAS RESULTING IS SOME WOBBLING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES IS MATERIALIZING AS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE IRENE TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED VERY
LITTLE...AND PERHAPS THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS SHIFTED 30
N MI TO THE WEST...TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

BECAUSE IRENE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 23.8N  75.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 27.5N  77.3W  115 KT 135 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 29.5N  77.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 31.5N  77.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 36.0N  75.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 42.5N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 50.0N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Dflip · August 25, 2011

The 5 a.m update for Irene which is about the same intensity wise, but... the new forecast is a bit to the west which means it will not be missing Cape Hatteras and is now aimed at Moorhead City, N.C. There is a hurricane watch from Wilmington right up to Virginia Beach. It will still be a hurricane as it moves up the Maryland and New Jersey Coast, so they likely will be under a hurricane watch later today or tomorrow. Long Island will get less than before, but the middle to just west of that part of Long Island is going to get hit with lesser winds.

I'm going at golfing this afternoon after our two hour thunderstorm in Toronto. We have had weird weather the past week. A tornado west of here, flash flood conditions and last night's storm. Nothing in comparison to Irene, but still somewhat unusual. My next post will be later today when I get home.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.6N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Groomlakearea51 · August 25, 2011

The biggest threat other than where the actual landfall is made is going to be the 50 kt (~60 mph) wind "swath". Many buildings and homes in the North-east were not designed for sustained high speed winds.

Groomlakearea51 · August 25, 2011

The first of the outer bands are hammering us. Winds are at about 30mph and the rain is dumping hard. I'd take a picture but it's blowing too hard.

And we are approximately 175 miles from the center.

Our estimate is that we will see these winds and rain get stronger until after midnight as it passes north of the Fort Pierce/ Vero area.

Here's the latest track paths

Groomlakearea51 · August 25, 2011

The MIL track.

PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE ARCS WHICH REPRESENT THE RADIUS OF WIND SPEEDS.

Groomlakearea51 · August 25, 2011

Pin this to your desktop:

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker

Groomlakearea51 · August 25, 2011

Local estimate graphics.

Groomlakearea51 · August 25, 2011

We can watch it coming on radar.

See: http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/OneKM.aspx?location=USFL0156

Groomlakearea51 · August 25, 2011

Meanwhile Jose is headed off to somewhere safe....

Jay481985 · August 25, 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/hurricanes/#!/2011/irene

Dflip · August 25, 2011

The 5 pm update for Irene is below. For Jay, the prediction is about 85 mph winds in the NYC area. The forcast for N.C. is a bit more to the west, probably closer to Bear Creek, Marine Corps Camp Lejeune. As Marshall pointed out, the homes in the northeast are not used to 85 mph winds and the Atlantic City coast is going to be dealing with 110 mph winds. Unlike many hurricanes, hitting the coast is not going to take a lot out of Irene because it is moving parallel to the coast which is it's source of water and energy. This is a big storm and storm surges are expected. Remember the number one cause of deaths in a hurricane is flooding and these areas are going to get a lot of rain in addition to a significant storm surge, see below.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE. 

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB
PEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT
QUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE
INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER
WINDS.

IRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH
BYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A
STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL
HEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS. SINCE
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  HOWEVER...THE
UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.   


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 27.0N  77.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 28.7N  77.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 30.6N  77.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 32.5N  77.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 34.5N  76.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 39.8N  74.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 96H  29/1800Z 48.5N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  30/1800Z 56.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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