Groomlakearea51 Posted September 18, 2011 Author Share Posted September 18, 2011 #3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 18, 2011 Author Share Posted September 18, 2011 You have to understand to read between the lines.... Just because the forecaster says diddly squat will happen in the next 48 hours does NOT say diddly squat won't happen.... PAY ATTENTION to #2 and #3...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Picture has changed a bit from yesterday..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 The "red one", now referred to as #1..... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 The graphics.... There is a good chance that this one will make it into the Carribean, if not turn early and run across Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Well..... They changed their story...... Ophelia!!! TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2011 ALTHOUGH OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A 1200 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP PBSY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS CURRENTLY NOT SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WAS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. LATEST ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT RELENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COAMPS-TC MODEL...WHICH IS PART OF THE HFIP SUITE AND HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER SO FAR THIS YEAR...SHOWS A FASTER DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...OR 270/14. THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO FOR OPHELIA REMAINS THE SAME. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS LIKELY AS OPHELIA...IF IT SURVIVES...NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE GFS GUIDANCE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 13.0N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 13.3N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 14.0N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 14.7N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.8N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 19.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 21.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 The track paths. NHC is pretty sure it will head on their predicted track, then turn to the northwest after Day-5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 SEE tracks graphic above. Ophelia is getting busted up pretty bad..... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2011 OPHELIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A LARGE CURVED BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS BAND IS AT A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. WITH LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS LIKELY THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 40 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA WILL WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF OPHELIA SURVIVES...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SO SOME INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AT THOSE TIMES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS OPHELIA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THERE ARE SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...WHICH SEEM TO BE RELATED TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...SHOW THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE RIDGE. THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS HAVE A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH IS AFFECTED MORE BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS DEEPER STRUCTURE CAUSES THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...TO THE RIGHT OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR TO THE WEST AS THE ECMWF OR BAM SHALLOW MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.3N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.7N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.0N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 21.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 23.0N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 25.5N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 25, 2011 Author Share Posted September 25, 2011 Ophelia is still struggling to survive. ________________________________________________________________ TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 OPHELIA REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW DISPLACED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY...OPHELIA WOULD LACK THE NECESSARY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 20 KT...DUE IN PART TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OPHELIA...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROHIBIT STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. IF OPHELIA SURVIVES BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD SINCE IT HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE FUTURE TRACK OF OPHELIA WILL DEPEND ON ITS VERTICAL COHERENCY. MOST OF THE MODELS...WHICH SHOW OPHELIA AS A RELATIVELY DEEP CYCLONE...TURN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER...KEEPS A SHALLOWER SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA...THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT MODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 18.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 19.1N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 20.7N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 21.4N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 22.8N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 27.0N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 25, 2011 Author Share Posted September 25, 2011 The track paths ________________________________________________________________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 25, 2011 Author Share Posted September 25, 2011 Meanwhile.... Philippe has emerged from it's cocoon.... But it too is headed off to nowhere... At best, it will be a Cat-1 hurricane, but should not pose any threat to anything except the fish. _________________________________________________________________________ TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011 PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS WIDENED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PHILIPPE REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THIS LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL MODEL. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WAS NUDGED WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 12.0N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 12.8N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 13.9N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 14.9N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 16.2N 35.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 18.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 25.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 25, 2011 Author Share Posted September 25, 2011 Phillipe's track paths ________________________________________________________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 25, 2011 Author Share Posted September 25, 2011 The big picture... ________________________________________________________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Marshall, is Rina headed your way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Fortunately..... Rina has decided to turn itself around. Given the cold fronts and cooling surface temps, it is highly unlikely that we will see anything else this year. But it has been interesting. 17 named storms. The closest call was three weeks ago when the "stealth storm" dropped about 12" of rain over a couple days on us. But, no winds. It just never was able to begin the rotation process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Another bust for the predictors? That's a good thing of course. The scary time will be when they predict a mild season with few storms of weak strength, then its time to head for the hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 You have a point. That's what happened in the early 2000's.... They predicted moderately high, but not the lethal barrage which ensured. They are quite conservative now. If they say 17.... they mean 17 or maybe less. The 2011 analysis report won't be finished until mid March of next year. I expect some interesting comments as to accuracy in the "numbers". [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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