Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 Dtel's great grandparents immigrated here from France and.....we are related to Jean Lafitte[:-*] but that's a well kept family secret as our fondness of the French has spiralled downward in recent years.[] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 The red & black candles are lit; the chicken bones scattered; the whisky and cigars burning; pictures of the Saints on top of the Klipschorns; and I'm considering moving the BVM inside to stereo center in the "wall of voodoo" just to keep that high pressure area right where it is......[6] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 Marshall, In spite of it all you have me ROTFLMAO!!!! I love your sense of humor. We may come "honker down" in that shelter you have over there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 I am wondering if 12' seas aren't a little conservative???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 CCEA, are you paying close attention to these graphics?? WhatchutalkinaboutWillis. Yea, I'm watching them pretty close. The 5:00 one looked a little better than the one before. It looked more directly west to me. Of course all bets are off when it hits the Gulf. I remember watching Rita in the Gulf. About a couple days or so before it hit, it was projected to hit Brownsville (WAAY South of here). As it neared, the projected path kept getting farther and farther north. Pretty soon Houston was in the middle of the largest evacuation in American history. Basically the entire population of Galveston and Houston got up and left. We all know what happened next. Rita hopped up the coast and settled on Beaumont as a good place to land. Houston got a little breeze and a few showers. The graphs and charts are great to get youre mind reeling, but they're all "subject to change without notice". Carl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Groom, Is this SLOSH chart updated for each hurricane? In other words is this the current SLOSH for Dean??????????? The SLOSH chart is the average maximum surge values, and reflect a worst case scenario of hurricane storm surge inundation (which includes the addition of an astronomical high tide). It should be noted that the data reflects only stillwater saltwater flooding. It is incumbent upon local emergency management officials to estimate the degree and extent of freshwater flooding, as well as to determine the magnitude of the waves that will accompany the surge. For New Orleans, it's 28 feet, which was the "panic" level when Katrina was still offshore at Cat-5. As it turned out the surge was less (16-19 feet?) as Katrina was a Cat-3. The SLOSH model computes the water height over a geographical area or basin. The model consists of a set of equations derived from the Newtonian equations of motion and the continuity equation applied to a rotating fluid with a free surface. The equations are integrated from the sea floor to the sea surface. The coastline is represented as a physical boundary within the model domain. Subgrid-scale water features (cuts, chokes, sills and channels), and vertical obstructions (levees, roads, spoil banks, etc.) can be parameterized within the model. Hope that helps (how info like that can help your peace of mind, I don't know...[]) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 CECA, Have you looked at the archive graph of the 5 day cone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 I am wondering if 12' seas aren't a little conservative???? That's minimum... Sea State is related to the wind AND the depth of the water; also Dean is small and compact, so the sea state is about right... But I'd bet 15-20 around the eye wall.... When that sucker gets to shallow water.... Well we know what 120 mile an hour winds can do as the water gets shallower up to the coast line. After all, at the coast line, no place to go except UP.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 DEAN as of 1700 Hours..... (that's 5:00 PM for the civilians....) AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICALGUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE.DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE. TRACK MODELS ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 16/2100Z 14.0N 56.5W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W 110 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W 120 KT120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W 90 KT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 Uhhhh hello....I don't think it will be anything nice!!!! I saw the effects of inland water flooding....during Katrina Lake Pontchartrain inundated Slidell...my hometown....knocked out the entire bridge that links the Northshore of Lake Pontchatrain (I-10 South) Slidell to New Orleans....literally lifted the bridge off it's pilings....what a sight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 DEAN - "Le Cone de La Morte" - or "Ye olde cone of death".... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 GFDL is remaining consistent???? Hey, Groomlake....how can I get the archives for those models???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 You have a PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 No PM in my box....try again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 Got it....thanks and back at you....check your box!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 CECAA, Have you looked at the archive graph of the 5 day cone? If you mean the latest graph, then yes, I look at the NOAA site. If you're talking about an old graph, then I'm not quite sure what you mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Got it....thanks and back at you....check your box!!!! Checked... Your turn... I'm busier than a one legged man in an a** kickin contest!![] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 16, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 16, 2007 CECA You have two pms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Yup, you now have a PM..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 CECA You have two pms. Tag, you're it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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