Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 When you go read the advisories and forecasts, they often make references to the different models, including "SHIPS". SHIPS does not appear on the track paths, but is a very important part of their analysis. Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) Model The SHIPS model is a statistical-dynamic intensity prediction model. This model was developed using climatological, persistence, and numerical model forecasts as predictors. Estimates of future storm intensity are made for 12-hr periods out to 120 hr. The SHIPS equations were initially developed using data from 49 storms during the period 1982-1992 that were at least 30 nautical miles from land. The SHIPS equations are typically updated each year. Unlike earlier versions, the most recent versions of SHIPS have significant skill over climatology, at least out to Day 3. The primary predictors are: Current storm intensity; Day of the year; Persistence (intensity change in previous 12 hrs); East-west compontent of storm motion; Divergence of the wind at 200 mb; Intensification potential (the difference between the current storm intensity and an estimate of the Maximum Possible Storm Intensity determined from the sea surface temperature); The vertical shear of the horizontal wind in the 850-200 mb layer; Average 200 mb temperature; Average 850 mb vorticity; Average 500-300 mb layer relative humidity; Cloud top temperature as measured by the GOES satellite infrared imager channel and Oceanic heat content inferred from altimetry measurements from polar orbiting satellites. Vertical wind shear is evaluated for the 850-200 mb layer because most satellite cloud track winds are assigned to those levels. The 500-300 mb relative humidity attempts to estimate the impact of any Saharan Dust Layer propagating across the Atlantic basin, which tends to inhibit storm intensitifaction. Terms 1-5 are evaluated at the initial storm location. All other terms are averaged along the forecast storm track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 "Hopefully, the GFDL track path past day four is not in agreement with everyone else. We'll have a very good idea on this by Sunday. Hopefully, it will be south of, rather than on top of Jamaica." Well....the official track has it right back over Jamaica! I hate it when that happens!!!! But then again, the night is young, and the trough may deepen!!![] I'm not a "bettin'" type, but... I'll betcha' a cold one that at 8:00 AM tomorrow morning, the GFDL track is lower than right now!!! [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 17, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 17, 2007 Nope, I'm not a bettin person either....but now a cold one???? That would work.....I guess you have some kind of "inside" info that you might want to share? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 I believe that someone asked about why only 12' seas a couple days ago? Well.... How'd you like to be out and about in your 21' fishin' boat off the "islands" about now? HIGH SEAS FORECAST// NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL//2230 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO WARNINGS // HURRICANE WARNING.. (Yah think??? []) HURRICANE DEAN NEAR 15.0N 64.5W 961 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 17 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM N SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. 24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DEAN NEAR 16.4N 70.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM N SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 300 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 38 FT. 48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DEAN NEAR 18.0N 77.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDSWITHIN 160 NM N SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. Now... That'll make sure your nautical skills are ship shape!!![] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 "Hopefully, the GFDL track path past day four is not in agreement with everyone else. We'll have a very good idea on this by Sunday. Hopefully, it will be south of, rather than on top of Jamaica." Well....the official track has it right back over Jamaica! I hate it when that happens!!!! But then again, the night is young, and the trough may deepen!!![] I'm not a "bettin'" type, but... I'll betcha' a cold one that at 8:00 AM tomorrow morning, the GFDL track is lower than right now!!! [H] A little lower will put it right back in my wheelhouse. I think Dean[li] needs to pay a visit south of the border and leave us alone!![Y] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Nope, I'm not a bettin person either....but now a cold one???? That would work.....I guess you have some kind of "inside" info that you might want to share? NHC///THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Don't forget that it's that time of the year and Africa keeps firing wave after wave off the west coast..... They start in the Sahara because it's 120 degrees in the shade.... ...TROPICAL WAVES...THE TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED INTO THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS24 HOURS AGO ALREADY HAS REACHED 32W SOUTH OF 19N AS OF17/1700 UTC. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH 41W OR SO BY18/1200 UTC. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THEWAVE...SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. THE 14N LOW CENTERAPPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME ACCORDING TO THE LATESTVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE WAVE HAS SHOT FORWARD TO 32W OR SO. THIS IS A FAST-MOVING WAVE...FORECAST TO REACH 41W OR SO BY 18/1200 UTC. Keep your fingers crossed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 I seem to remember a couple years ago watching 3 of them leave Africa, one behind the next, and head in our direction. All lined up and in the Atlantic simultaneously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Interesting graphic product. predicted sea states for Monday evening: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 And the predicted surface analysis for Monday evening. lines are baro boundaries in 1k+millibars (16 = 1016 mB) Note the tropical waves!!! Like a grenade launcher!!! (or the battery bunny... they just keep coming and coming and coming...) Each one of them is a potential huuricane if there is an upper level disturbance which can get them spinning.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Dtel's wife; the ridge is roughly the boundary area between the 1012 and 1016 lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 For boaters and "combat swimmers", this graphic shows the wave periodic, or the time between the waves as it is predicted for Monday evening. It shows the direction and the time. That's important. The shorter the wave "period", the more "rough" and choppy the seas are. 7-9 is average; 5 or below is "rough", regardless of the sea state (wave height). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 The "talking heads" just interviewed Max Mayfield, the former NHC director. He's one of the most respected meteorologists. Mayfield clearly stated that folks in Louisiana should better pay very close attention to this.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 And today's NHC "CHART FOR STUPID PEOPLE"...... Again, I love the warning on the right side..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 17, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 17, 2007 Just a short note....our barometric pressure is dropping due to a low pressure system moving over us....the low is supposed to pull out to the west, sometime Monday????....then the high pressure ridge is supposed to "build in" behind it???? Marshall, you are much more experienced in reading this charts than I am....so I will defer to you! Thanks for trying to boost my confidence level! I have had an extremely emotional day today.....as most of you could obviously tell from my earlier posts about life in "The Hurricane Zone"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 They even drew a little red line in case someone overlooks the obvious.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 DTEL'S WIFE: Watch what happens at 12-24 hours from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 NOW WATCH WHAT HAPPENS 24-48 HOURS FROM NOW: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Dtel's wife: So your barometer should be dropping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 17, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 17, 2007 They even drew a little red line in case someone overlooks the obvious.... We should just call it "The Stupid Zone"....but I guess we can't do that![] BTW, Marshall....Buddy has been enrolled in martial arts since February....he has progressed through white belt, three degrees of purple belt and two degrees of green belt....the instructors invited him to join the "Special Forces" for the martial arts school. "Special Forces" is a demonstration team that performs at various events throughout the year. So...I will be checking out shortly to take him to his martial arts class and will return to our "class" around 9:00 p.m. Central Time. Thank you for excusing me![] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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