Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 LATEST NHC UPDATE AT 1100 EDT THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES. ASTHE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 19/1500Z 17.0N 75.1W 125 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W 125 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W 130 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W 140 KT (160 MILES PER HOUR) 48HR VT 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W 100 KT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 CONE OF DEATH........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 MILSAT VISIBLE AT 1115 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. Groomlake, Where is that high pressure system as of now? Any idea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 Groomlake, You have a PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 HIGH PRESSURE BUILD: LOOK AT THE AREA AROUND GEORGIA: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 A LARGE SCALE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AT 38N34W PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES E OF 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W THAT IS PUSHING S AND WILL EFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF DEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N56W MOVING W. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 50W-57W. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC E OF 40W. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 So the high pressure still has a little way to go to fully protect the LA/MS coast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 Okay....layman's terms please.....because my head is booming with a sinus infection right now and I can't do the research on it. I know New Orleans sits at 30 and it looks like some kind of weather system near Georgia....the white "blob". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 LOOK AT THE AREA OF THE SE COAST; THIS GRAPHIC IS FOR 96 HOURS (4 DAYS OUT): Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Okay....layman's terms please.....because my head is booming with a sinus infection right now and I can't do the research on it. I know New Orleans sits at 30 and it looks like some kind of weather system near Georgia....the white "blob". Look at the blue lines and you can see the baro pressure. The high in the upper north Atlantic is pushing the lines down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Okay....layman's terms please.....because my head is booming with a sinus infection right now and I can't do the research on it. I know New Orleans sits at 30 and it looks like some kind of weather system near Georgia....the white "blob". Look at the blue lines and you can see the baro pressure. The high in the upper north Atlantic is pushing the lines down. On the "pretty colors" graphic, you see the "H" off the coast of Georgia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 you see the "H" off the coast of Georgia That's where I thought it was....it better get moving! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 More Pretty Colors!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 More Pretty Colors!! Okay...smart a**. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Dtel's wife: Here' this will help your sinuses: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 I'M HAPPY.... THIS IS 144 HOURS (NEXT SATURDAY) AWAY. THESE ARE THE HIGH PRESSURE BOUNDARY PREDICTIONS OFF THE SUPERCOMPUTERS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 Thank you! Is that a current map or a forecast map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 More Pretty Colors!! Okay...smart a**. Go here and watch the show by pressing step button; you can see the systems and the baropressure moving. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/hurricane-AMMA/hgt_irtemp_1000_atl_animation.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Thank you! Is that a current map or a forecast map? 144 hours out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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