Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 19, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2007 More Pretty Colors!! Okay...smart a**. I thought you missed that![] But....I should have known better![] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Dtel's wife: You have a PM!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 It's almost 2:00 PM (1400 EDT, 1600 UTC, 1600Z, etc...) and, unless there is something major we don't know about - say a large asteroid strike... the track paths are not going to change for at least 6-8 hours. If the do, they will shift further south. So, I'm outa here, grab a "sammidge" and watch the whole Jamaica scene unfold. I'll do a full graphics update at 5:00 AM, unless something get's weird. Later!!![8-|] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 19, 2007 Share Posted August 19, 2007 No major changes at the 2:00 update. It is still on the same path. Out of interest I did some exploring in the history section of the National Hurricane Center and looked at Katrina. I had forgtton that it hit just north of Miami and then continued to track southwest until it got into the Gulf of Mexico. When it hit Miami, it was a 65 mph storm and not quite a hurricane. That surprised me, because of course I remember what Katrina became, but that didn't happen until 48 hours later the winds were 100 mph, on the way six hours later to 125. At this point it continued to grow until the winds slowed slightly before making landfall. Interesting that Katrina was an "almost" hurricane party in Miami to your worst nightmare just north and east of New Orleans. Kinsfisher. Oklahoma received quite a bit of rain and the resulting flash flood has four to five feet of water in some of the low lying areas. This is the remnants of Erin. I guess it is the old story, water does a lot more damage than wind. People are on the roofs and people are out in fishing boats trying to rescue others. There appears to be a good number of intermittent rivers in the area (the flow during the wet season, but can be dry the rest of the time). They are carrying a lot of water at the moment and flooding the banks of these rivers and the Cimarron River. There are advantages to living in an area that is above the 100 year flood plain. With the ground as dry as I think it has been, the water would not absorb into the ground, rather it just runs off to the lowest level possible. The same storm is now headed northeast up I-44 towards the Tulsa area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 The 11 pm update: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/200246.shtml According to the coordinates that I mapped onto Google Earth, the hurricane made a slight jump to the west with a bit less northern movement. Maybe nothing major, or a break for Cozumel which right now is on the right front quadrant. It is projected to hit 80 - 90 miles to the south. If Dean passes far enough south, they may only suffer like Jamaica, instead of taking a direct hit. It is still too far out to accurately predict where it will hit, but Cozumel would not be my preferred destination at the moment. The projection at the moment is Isla de Techal on the Yucatan Pennisula, seemingly a relatively unpopulated area. The bad news, the winds are 145 - 150 mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 11 pm cone of death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 It's the 5:AM cone, How'd you do that!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 WELL IT APPEARS THAT OTHER THAN THE USUAL ROOFS, FLOODING, ETC. JAMAICA WAS VERY FORTUNATE THAT THE MAIN WIND BANDS SCRAPED BY RATHER THAN A FULL HEAD ON EYEWALL HIT. THE "TALKING HEADS" ARE STILL SAYING THAT IT WILL BECOME A CAT-5 LATER TODAY. IT'S PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMANS RIGHT NOW. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AGAIN INDICATED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. BASED ON DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT (149 MILES PER HOUR). DEAN IS MOVING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND EXHIBITS A CLASSIC UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. DEAN CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE TRANSIT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY FOLLOWS THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST AND LANDFALL.AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...270/18. THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN. THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GFDL...U.K. MET... NOGAPS... AND GFS CONSENSUS AND FSU (FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY) SUPERENSEMBLE TRACKS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 20/0900Z 17.7N 80.7W 130 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.1N 83.5W 135 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W 140 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.6N 90.5W 75 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.5N 94.0W 90 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE 72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 IN CASE YOUR BROWSER DISPLAYS A DIFFERENT NUMBER OF PAGES; HERE'S THE 5:00 AM CONE OF DEATH ALSO POSTED BY DFLIP. SOMEHOW HIS POST INDICATES 11:PM FROM LAST NIGHT, BUT I SUSPECT IT'S A LINK THAT AUTO REFRESHES THE IMAGE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 MIL/US NAVY PATH GRAPHIC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 I'm breathing easy...........................for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 MILSAT IR IMAGE FROM A COUPLE HOURS AGO; THE VISIBLE IMAGES WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY AFTER THEY COME IN: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 It's the 5:AM cone, How'd you do that!!!! I seem to have found the auto updating link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 dflip: you might want to edit that "autorefresh" version. When the storm gets inland, NHC moves the graphic to an archive file and the name changes; it might lock the forum thread at that point because it would not be able to find the link. Not sure, but it's possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 The latest; THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN...DEAN SHOULD RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE CROSSING AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS THEREFORE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE OFFICIALFORECAST BELOW...DEAN COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL.THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL FORECAST. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTWARD-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN A VERY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 20/1500Z 17.9N 82.4W 130 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W 140 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W 100 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 LATEST MILSAT PHOTO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 NOTE FOR FORUM MEMBERS; USN IS INVESTIGATING A POTENTIAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSSES THIS IN A BRIEF NOTE.... A LARGE AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 28N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 20/0930 UTC SHOWED THE WAVE AXIS WELL. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 53W-63W...AND ALSO FURTHER S JUST E/SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 55W-62W. HERE'S THE MILSAT PHOTO: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM; "AND YOU GOT IT FIRST ON THE KLIPSCH FORUM!!!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 HERE'S THE SAT PHOTO: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 NOTICE THE "CRYPTIC" WORD "INVEST" (INVESTIGATE...) IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC..... THIS IS A MICROWAVE REFLECTION PHOTO. VERY SPECTACULAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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