Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 HURRICANE DEAN FOR SATURDAY, 18 AUGUST 2007, 8:00 AM COFFE TIME Cone of Death Graphic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 HURRICANE DEAN POTENTIAL LANDFALL ESTIMATE AS OF SATURDAY, 18 AUGUST 2007 FOR YOUR MORNING COFFEE.... MAX WINDS 115 KT (~120 MILES PER HOUR)... WITH GUSTS UP TO 140 KT (~155-160 MILES PER HOUR) 50 KT/ 60 MILE PER HOUR WINDS WILL EXTEND OUT 100 MILES ON THE NORTH SIDE AND 60 MILES ON THE SOUTH SIDE 34 KT/ 43+ MILE PER HOUR WINDS WILL EXTEND OUT 200 MILES ON THE NORTH SIDE AND 120 MILES ON THE SOUTH SIDE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Glad to see the GFDL get in line with everyone else. Dtells wife, you can take a cautious breath now[] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 HURRICANE DEAN GRAPHIC FROM THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER: NOTE THE RED "BLOB"..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 18, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 18, 2007 The beer is chillin' now![] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 HERE'S A SAMPLE REALTIME GRAPHIC FOR SEA SURFACE TEMPS. NOTE HOW THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO EARLY FORMATIOM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Hopefully noone has a trip booked to either Cozumel or Cancun at the moment. If the projections are right, between the two tourist resorts there is a 150 mph hurricane in 72 hours. With Cancun being the northern of the two places, it should take the bigger hit. It's that old northeastern quadrant that takes the biggest hit. After that Dean seems to die down a bit before it hits either northern Mexico or the Texas-Mexican border. Hopefully it keeps going straight and doesn't do any of those weird turns that sometimes happen. There mustn't be any major air masses coming that will change the path. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 PROBABLY NOT A GOOD IDEA TO BE OUT ON THE "HIGH SEAS" RIGHT NOW.... SEA STATE BELOW: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 This data is from the European EUMETSAT site and shows what is happening off of the Sahara. http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image_Gallery/Real-time_Images/index.htm?l=en Click in the 0° Operational Service. A new window will come up and choose, sector 5. It will show the storm blowing off the desert. This is a still picture from the same satillite http://www.goes.noaa.gov/f_meteo.html and shows potential storms heading across the Atlantic. Kind of interesting. It does show them lining up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 18, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 18, 2007 We booked a cruise for April 2008 back in Feb/Mar of this year. Ports of call....Cozumel, Montego Bay, Jamaica and Grand Cayman[] Our main purpose for going....snorkeling and to just get away.....good thing we didn't want to go "sightseeing"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 18, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 18, 2007 "Kind of interesting. It does show them lining up." I feel so much better now![] Seriously....Marshall....this is really cool stuff....[H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 HURRICANE DEAN - SATURDAY MORNING BRUNCH REPORT; THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS BEING THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS BEFORE. AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924 MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYSRESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 THE CONE OF IMPENDING DOOM AND MASS DESTRUCTION.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 NOW THE "STUPID PEOPLE IN BOATS WHO DON'T PAY ATTENTION WARNING..." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrWho Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Quick question for the hurricane seasoned folk out there... I have a flight that leaves Orlando on Tuesday morning - is this Hurricane Dean thing likely to cause delays? or cancellations? I have to get back to Champaign on Tuesday so need to consider the options of renting a car if need be... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Mike, you should be fine. I doubt Orlando even felt it today and by Tuesday, Dean should be getting closer to the Cancun. You are far out of the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Quick question for the hurricane seasoned folk out there... I have a flight that leaves Orlando on Tuesday morning - is this Hurricane Dean thing likely to cause delays? or cancellations? I have to get back to Champaign on Tuesday so need to consider the options of renting a car if need be... Highly unlikely. If you somehow get delayed, head south and hang out here[<)] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Watch the news. Tourists in Jamaica are going nuts trying to escape... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 We booked a cruise for April 2008 back in Feb/Mar of this year. Ports of call....Cozumel, Montego Bay, Jamaica and Grand Cayman Our main purpose for going....snorkeling and to just get away.....good thing we didn't want to go "sightseeing"! Sounds like you're in luck, there might be some new damage that you can go down and have a look at. As for the usual sightseeing, it depends on how the hurricane hits Jamaica, Montego Bay is on the north shore. The southern shore of the island should take the most damage. I just took another look at your trip from Google Earth, so you're doing the Hurricane Dean damage tour? . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 18, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 18, 2007 I will pass on viewing the hurricane damage. If Dean passes over Jamaica, as the forecast indicates....there will be very little left of the north shore as it would be likely be in the northeastern quadrant.[] Actually, at a CAT 4 or 5 if it comes anywhere close to Jamaica the entire island will suffer catastrophic damage.... Maybe if Groom gets some time he can post some facts about damage in the different quadrants of these monsters????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.