Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTO AS OF 5:15 AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 ON THE OTHER ONE, THERE IS NO CHANGE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE: HERE'S MIL TEXT MSG, BUT IT'S STILL FROM YESTERDAY: FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z (THAT'S 1:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON) HERE'S THE TRACK PATH MODELS: THE LAST SUPERCOMPUTER RUNS WERE MADE LAST NIGHT AT 7:00 PM EDT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 HERE'S THE VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE OTHER ONE AS OF 5:15 THIS MORNING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 HERE'S COMPOSITE; NOTICE THE RED BLOBS; AND ALSO YOU CAN SEE PUERTO RICO IN THE LOWER LEFT CORNER OF THE IMAGE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 UNIFIED SURFACE ANALYSIS - NOTE THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM RELATIVE TO FLORIDA....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 THE CRYPTIC ANNOUNCEMENT AND THE GRAPHIC BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS OF 5:30 THIS MORNING A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 THE OTHER ONE..... NOW THEY HAVE CHANGED THEIR MIND..... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK; NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL; 1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007; FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ___________________________________________________________________ OH WELL.... I'M QUITE THANKFUL.... MILITARY ALSO CANCELLED THEIR WATCH; NO FURTHER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE. BUT I WOULD RECOMMEND THAT ANYONE INTERESTED IN THESE THINGS CONTINUE TO WATCH ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 21, 2007 Share Posted August 21, 2007 Sorry for the bad news, but we are just entering the major hurricane season. For a historical perspective: The current Atlantic basin conditions: NOAA UPDATES ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOKAbove-Normal Season Still Expected http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2905.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 If we can just through the next 28 days......... In any event, to show the current sea temps; see the graphic below. Fortunately, the SST's (surface sea temps) have cooled off a little bit from last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 HERE'S THE 72 HOUR PREDICTION FOR THE TEMPS. NOTE THE TEMPS COMING OFF AFRICA (WHERE THE BEASTS ARE SPAWNED....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 HERE'S AN INTERESTING FORECAST; IT SHOWS THE TEMPS AT 850mB FRIDAY. WHAT WE WANT IS THE TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN WITH THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 JUST IN FROM MILSAT: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 21, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2007 Dean is still impressive looking.....even after crossing the Yucatan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 Dean is still impressive looking.....even after crossing the Yucatan! It's a monster!!! Could be worse, could be like Frances - the size of Texas and only moving at about 5 miles per hour. Took 36 hours to pass over us. What a ride!! That's why everybody's roofs started to fail. After abour 24 straight hours of 90 mile per hour winds, things start to come apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 21, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2007 There is so much information available on tropical storms/hurricanes....yet there is still a lot to learn. Each hurricane has its own unique characteristics, which can make forecasting extremely difficult. The National Hurricane Center has improved its forecasting track record significantly in the last few years....which is a good thing for all of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 Dflip and Christy (the Klipsch Weather Forum Night Crew); You got it! I'm off to horse practice with my daughter!!! Do us proud!!![Y] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 21, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2007 Skipping out on class again....I see how you are now![] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 21, 2007 Share Posted August 21, 2007 HERE'S THE 72 HOUR PREDICTION FOR THE TEMPS. NOTE THE TEMPS COMING OFF AFRICA (WHERE THE BEASTS ARE SPAWNED....) That was an interesting graphic. I can see the system you have labelled 1 in the north Atlantic which could still come into play. The two other magenta circles off of the western coast of Africa look like potential trouble. The colour indicates heat and if they keep that as they cross the Atlantic, then they could equal Dean as they would be hurricances a long way out, east of Puerto Rico and become huge storms in or around the Carribean Sea/Gulf of Mexico. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 21, 2007 Share Posted August 21, 2007 Dean has lost strength and is struggling to regain some of it's intensity. The eyewall is not forming as well as expected, which may hold it to a category 2 before it hits the main coast of Mexico. It also appears to be on a more northerly pattern than earlier forcasts for a landing near Veracruz. It now looks like a landing between Tuxpan and Tampico, again a relatively unpopulated area. So far this is the "horseshoe" hurricane. It has hit areas with small populations and according to CNN, radio and tv has educated people to "get out of Dodge" and the people in trouble evacuated. The potential damage is the mountainous areas. Those of you on the west coast who are regularly exposed to orographic rainfall know that the clouds can't climb over the mountains, so they dump moisture. There are mountains 5 -7 km inland which means the rivers that flow to the ocean will be overflowing with no way to discharge their water since the hurricane will be whipping up waves bashing the coast. The water will have nowhere to go, other than flooding the towns near the mouths of these rivers. So while Dean hasn't done as much damage as originally thought, it is more luck, fifty-sixty miles south in the case of Jamaica, Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Pennisula, than planning. For Cental Mexico it may very well be north of the mountains that surround Mexico City which saves lives. HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420071100 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007DEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A LARGE RAGGED EYE ON SATELLITEIMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED DEAN AND MEASURED A MINIMUMPRESSURE OF 979 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KNOTS.HOWEVER...THE SFMR HAS ONLY MEASURED 59 KNOTS SO FAR. SINCE DEEPCONVECTION IS RETURNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70KNOTS...WHICH IS A BLEND OF BOTH MEASUREMENTS AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS.DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IS RUNNING OUTOF TIME TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACECIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAINOF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD SPREADNORTHWARD.DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTSAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERALMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SINCE THE STEERINGCURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE.THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT CAYO ARCAS RECENTLYMEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 KNOTS...GUSTS TO 63 KNOTS AND AMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986.3 MB. NOAA BUOY 42055 IN THE SOUTHWESTERNGULF OF MEXICO MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND A GUST TO43 KNOTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 21, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 21, 2007 Well done Dflip. Nice commentary also. I'll be your assistant teacher anyday[], all of your hard work, diligence and participation in this thread is greatly appreciated. BTW, the graphics you have posted are cool too![H] I would hope more people become educated and not "just lucky". I heard on FOX News teams of doctors and relief aid will be leaving the US for Mexico...the Yucatan Penisula in particular. Even though the areas affected are relatively unpopulated, these areas are also some of the poorest. Dtel and I decided a long time ago any forecast beyond a CAT 1 and we are out of here. Our youngest daughter and her family live in Ruston, LA, just east of Shreveport, LA. Depending on the forecast track we can and have evacuated to that area. We have also evacuated to Tuscaloosa, AL and as far north as TN/NC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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