End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Dflip]

The National Hurricane projection.

[Groomlakearea51]

MEANWHILE..... THE "OTHER" SYSTEM IS STILL OUT THERE. HERE'S THE AVAILABLE TRACKS AT THE MOMENT

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE NHC DISCUSSION ON THIS SYSTEM

A 1012 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 11N40W MOVING GENERALLY SW NEAR 5 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DISPLACED W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Groomlakearea51]

THE SUPERCOMPUTERS (NOW HAVING FINISHED WITH FELIX...) HAVE TURNED THEIR ATTENTION TO THIS OTHER POSSIBLE DEPRESSION/STORM. BELOW IS THE NHC DISCUSSION

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N72W AT 05/0900 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 33N68W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT COULD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E WITHIN 150/180 NM OF A LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO 31N69W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE.

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE TRACK PATHS; IT SHOWS A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH WEST, AND OBVIOUSLY THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT EXCEPT THAT IT WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE NORTH IN SOME FASHION. MEMBERS IN FLORIDA NEED TO CAREFULLY WATCH THIS SYSTEM. THE SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE IN 2004. IT WAS "OUT THERE", AND WANDERED AROUND IN CIRCLES REPEATEDLY AND WHILE IT WAS ORIGINALLY PREDICTED TO HEAD NORTH, IT TURNED TO THE WEST AND SLAMMED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A FAIRLY STRONG CAT-2.

[Groomlakearea51]

NHC FURTHER DISCUSSES THIS SYSTEM:

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED EAST OF THE CENTER THIS EVENING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Dflip]

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT
280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

[Dflip]

1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES OF
NEWLY-DEVELOPED SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dtel's wife]

Thanks for the update Dflip.

[Groomlakearea51]

Christy you have a PM !!![]

[Dflip]

Gabrielle does have some interest for me because my friend and her daughters are renting a house on Emerald Isle, NC in two weeks time for a one week vacation. This is only a tropical storm, but it will hit just north of the house. The same spot got hit two years ago when they were there and had to evacuate. Fortunately that was also a less intense hurricane.

I keep my friend up to date with hurricane news. She hopes I don't have any.

[Dflip]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10-15 MPH.


2 and 3 are somewhat disorganized and they don't predict that they will turn into major storms.

[Groomlakearea51]

FOR FORUM MEMBERS IN EAST TEXAS, LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, ETC. THIS MAY NOT PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, BUT IT LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY NASTY.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

SATELLITE AND NWS RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HERE'S THE TRACK PATHS FROM THE COMPUTERS:

[Groomlakearea51]

MEANWHILE, LURKING (AND MOVING IN A BAD DIRECTION...) HERE'S THE POTENTIAL NEXT HURRICANE THAT COULD AFFECT US: THIS IS THE MIL STATEMENT:

WTNT01 KNGU 120900z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 120900Z SEP 07//
RMKS/

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010MB IS LOCATED APPROX 1000NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILIES NEAR 13N 43W. MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 6 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVER WINDS DISPLAY DIVERGENCE IN THE WINDS FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

HERE'S THE TRACK PATHS:

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTO OF THE GULF ONE:

[Groomlakearea51]

AND HERE'S THE PRETTY PICTURE (DEPENDENT UPON ONE'S POINT OF VIEW...) OF THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM:

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE BIG PICTURE. THE BIG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC IS MOVING SW, AND THAT COULD CAUSE THE ATLANTIC STORM WHEN IT DEVELOPS TO RUN ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EITHER HIT SOUTH FLORIDA OR PUSH IT INTO THE GULF.

[Groomlakearea51]

72 HOUR SURFACE ANALYSIS FORECAST: NOTICE THE PRESSURE LINES WILL HAVE MOVED AND IT'S POSSIBLE THE STORM WILL TRACK ALONG THE 1016 BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS THAT STEER THESE WILL PLAY A MAJOR PART OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

IT IS IN THE STATISTICAL PEAK OF THE SEASON, AND CONDITIONS ARE "GOOD" FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

[dtel's wife]

Hey Groomey,

Must you always be the bearer of such good news![]

I checked in here a little earlier to see if had updated the thread yet. I was patiently waiting for you to post the "latest news from NHC and others".

Thanks for letting us know what's going on! I'll be checking in a little later.

[Groomlakearea51]

IN THE "BEARER OF SUCH GOOD NEWS CATEGORY"..... SEA SURFACE TEMPS;