End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

Note: More Info: KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED; KEEP THE CANDLES BURNING, THE CHICKEN BONES SPREAD THIN; THE CANDLES LIT AND THE INCANTATIONS TO THE WEATHER GODS GOING STRONG (AND WEAR THE FUNNY ALUMINUM HATS...)

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS YET THAT THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the "Pretty Picture"; Notice that it's disorganized.... That's good....

[CECAA850]

dtels wife: Call me at home in about an hour or two, I'll set your mind at rest, and I'll go over the factors that would require a 200 line post...... Besides I need to give you the shipping address for the speakers[6]

How did you get my address????????[]

[Groomlakearea51]

The NHC has no real idea of what this is going to do. They are very concerned that it will develop.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...ANALYZED 1005 MB...OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 85 NM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.. BUT DOES NOT YET HAVE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT OFFSHORE NOAA AUTOMATED STATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WNW. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.

Here's the track paths:

[Groomlakearea51]

Military (NMLOC) still shows a box; but it is much further to the north than yesterday's "box":

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT visible image as of a couple hours ago.

[Groomlakearea51]

Ok... STD means sub-tropical depression, not the latest version of mutant herpes....

Here's what the NHC says:

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE... ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER SOUTH. THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.

THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW OF RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.

Here's the Cone of Death:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MIL Track which, in my opinion, is much easier to read;

[Groomlakearea51]

And the latest available visible image (about 2 hours old):

[dtel's wife]

I sure am glad this thing isn't forecast to intensify too much more. On the current track the eye will pass just to the south of us!

[Groomlakearea51]

dtel's wife: Been wiped out with the flu and the medicine (which is worse than the flu...[:'(]) since Thursday afternoon, but it appears you've been spared. Do pay attention to the low pressure zone south down by Fort Myers. Gotta go back to bed; have a great weekend.

[dtel's wife]

Sorry to hear you are "under the weather". I was wondering what was up...cuz you just kind of disappeared on us for a couple of days.

I hope you get well soon.

[Groomlakearea51]

dtel's wife: I'm struggling with the effects of the antibiotics. Other than an aspirin for a fever every six months (kids' bring home "gifts" from school...), I don't take anything; so when I have to every couple years, it just kicks my a*s.....

In any event, it's getting quite "busy" out there.

So......

[Groomlakearea51]

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF AREAS OF CONCERN RIGHT NOW. FORTUNATELY, AS THE SEASON WINDS DOWN, SO DO THE SURFACE TEMPS AND OTHER FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSET OF COOL WEATHER GENERALLY LIMIT FORMATION TO WEST ATLANTIC (CLOSER TO THE WINDWARDS), AND IN PARTICULAR THE CARRIBEAN/GULF.

HERE'S THE GRAPHIC WITH THE AREAS OF "INTEREST":

[Groomlakearea51]

LOOKING AT EACH AREA:

AREA-1: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY... IF NECESSARY.

HERE'S THE TRACKS:

[Groomlakearea51]

AREA-2: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION... AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

HERE'S THE TRACKS:

[Groomlakearea51]

AREA-3: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

HERE'S THE TRACKS:

[Groomlakearea51]

MEANWHILE.... SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY:

AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY. THE CYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS JERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PULL JERRY TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST... AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

HERE'S THE TRACKS:

[Groomlakearea51]

AND NOW FOR YOUR DINING PLEASURE: SAT PHOTOS OF THE SYSTEMS:

FIRST, HERE'S THE MILSAT VISIBLE FOR JERRY:

[Groomlakearea51]

AND THE MILSAT VISIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN: