End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile, the Atlantic continues to produce the tropical waves; although they should slow down and stop in a couple of weeks. Karen is expected to become a Cat-1 hurricane for a while and then supposedly die out in the North Atlantic.

Let's hope so......

Here's the latest on Ms. Karen....

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AT 26/0900 UTC KAREN WAS NEAR 11.2N 42.1W OR ABOUT 1115 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... MOVING W NEAR 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF W AND 120 NM E SEMICIRCLES. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 38W-45W. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED.

Here's the MILTrack path; Note the wind strength data in the upper right corner of the graphic:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the supercomputer tracks for Karen:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT visible image for Karen:

[Groomlakearea51]

The system in the Gulf appears to be headed off to the west (as opposed to north to dtel's wife's home....)[]

Here's the latest from the NHC on that system:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT 26/0900 UTC WAS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21.0N 95.0W OR ABOUT 175 NM E-SE OF TAMPICO AND ABOUT 135 NM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO... MOVING SLOWLY S NEAR 3 KT. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... AS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION MOSTLY EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 92W-97W.

Here's the supercomputer tracks:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's what the military think it will do:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MIL Infrared satellite view of the system:

[Groomlakearea51]

There's also the system aimed at Florida... While it is not supposed to turn "mean", it bears watching due to the potential for serious rain and potential problems if it gets into the gulf:

BEING MONITORED IS THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH... WHICH EXTENDS FROM SE FLORIDA TO WRN CUBA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIME. MODEST HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS.

Here's the supercomputer track paths:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT visible image:

[Groomlakearea51]

There are a number of systems that may cause problems, particularly the system that's going to cross South Florida, and the system that's aimed at Florida from the Antilles:

Here's the NHC Graphic and will follow with the discussions regarding what threat they pose:

[Groomlakearea51]

The low pressure/ tropical depression system that's currently in the Gulf poses no issues to the US; it's still tracked across Mexico (if it ever starts moving again...)

The area identified as #1 could develop and cause heavy rainfall as it passes out across South Florida. Right now, we are getting pounded (intermittently) by nasty t-storms in Okeechobee which is located just west of Fort Pierce and about 200 miles north of Key West (as the crow flies); Here's the NHC data:

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

Here's the supercomputer track graphics:

[Groomlakearea51]

The #2 area of concern, according to the NHC, may not develop; but it too is headed (as a big rain bringer) towards south Florida.

Here's the NHC data:

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

Here's the supercomputer graphics:

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile..... Here's the NHC data on the latest system (#3 in the first graphic) leaving Africa:

A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile, Karen continues to head out into the high seas.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT visible image of the system that just developed off the coast of Florida. BIG'un!!! Good thing it has not started to spin......

[dtel's wife]

Glad to see you are back and feeling like your old self again. Thanks for the updates!

[Groomlakearea51]

I feel so much better!!! Go check the "BBQ specialty" post!! It'll bring tears to yer eyes!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Well it's Friday, the 28th, and we've got abou 3-4 weeks to go. While the Atlantic conditions during the last 3-4 weeks have generally torn the storms up, there is always the potential for a late season "P-Bringer" like Wilma in 2005.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ABOUT 755 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. STRONG SWLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO IS 45 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL RESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 20W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ON THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the more detailed information on Karen:

VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF KAREN HASMOVED ERRATICALLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE RETURNING TO A PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AN EARLIER 0910Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF BELIEVABLE FLAGGED 40 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BUT SINCE THEN...THAT CONVECTIVE AREA CONTAINING THE COLDEST TOPS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT INTERPRETATION AND CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAREN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES IN BRINGING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND LGEM. AFTERWARD...BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL OF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...KAREN COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY BOTH AFOREMENTIONED INTENSITY MODELS. IN PREVIOUS RUNS...DESPITE THE OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...IN THE LATEST RUNS...THE GFS WEAKENS KAREN AND THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO. ECMWF AND GFDL INSIST ON STRENGTHENING. WE SHALL SEE IN THE NEXT RUN IF THESE MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8. A LOW- TO MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KAREN SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD...A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TEMPORARILY INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AROUND THE 96 HOUR PERIOD...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH WILL FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALLOWING A MID- LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE KAREN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST...IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES FOR THAT LONG OF A PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND HEDGES TOWARD THE SHALLOW MEAN LAYER BAM....SINCE THE KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.

Here's the supercomputer tracks:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILTRACK for Karen:

[Groomlakearea51]

And here's Karen's visible image: