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End of Hurricane Season - 2007


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NHC is still concerned with the below three areas, in particular they are concerned with the area in the Atlantic off the Azores. It certainly bears watching.

1. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME....
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 730 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT COULD
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

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As we get later in the hurricane season, we may get lucky. Number 2's line shows the greatest danger at the moment, but the conditions might not be right for hurricane development. Number 3 looks more likely, but the predictions today seem to have it winding down and going out to sea. The next day or two should provide a better clue. The interesting thing is that we have already have two Cat 5 hurricanes, so that should be the news of the season. The fact that they hit underdeveloped and underpopulated areas of Mexico and Honduras made them interesting, but nothing to worry about. Now, if Dean had taken a turn for the north, then it might have made Katrina seem like a piker.

Hopefully, the good news continues.

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The latest images. We now have tropical depression twelve, although it looks like it will ultimately head out to sea, just like Jerry.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS ALSO DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT ABOUT 15
MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

post-6396-13819344919718_thumb.gif

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