End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the track data for the system off the Azores. It's possible that it will strengthen, but apparently (at this point...) will not pose a threat.

[Groomlakearea51]

And the MIL track with wind estimates:

[Groomlakearea51]

And the visible satellite image:

[CECAA850]

What's that sneakin up on us out in the Gulf?

[dtel's wife]

I guess Groomey deserted us!

[dtel's wife]

I hope that low doesn't become a named system....it would be Noel....which is my middle name![]

[klipschaholik]

I'll fill in for Marshall. Weather Underground's Dr Jeff Master's comments are as follows from this afternoon:

A low pressure system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (90L) has changed little today. The buoy 262 nm south of Panama City, FL had winds of 36 mph gusting to 45 mph this morning, but these winds have fallen some this afternoon. Satellite loops show some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing in intensity. This system has the potential to become a subtropical depression by Wednesday, and a Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Wednesday afternoon. This afternoon's model runs continue to point to a landfall Thursday or Friday in Louisiana or Texas. I don't see this storm becoming a hurricane, due to the large amount of dry air to overcome, plus the extended amount of time it will take to transition from a subtropical to a tropical storm. The GFDL model probably has the right idea, bringing 90L ashore in Texas Friday with top winds near 40-45 mph.

Go to: www.wunderground.com Check on the tropical weather.

Most likely going to create a mud hole down in the Tiger's den this Saturday. Geaux Tigers!

[D]

[Dflip]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE

PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD AREA OF

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS

SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR

WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

It doesn't appear to be a major storm. I'm sure it will provide some wind and rain. It may provide some flooding when it moves inland, 

but that is true with many storms. No Katrina on the horizon and nothing at the moment off the coast of Africa. Hopefully this will 

result in an wind down of the hurricane season. We have had later storms, but as the seas cool slightly, it is harder to generate a 

major hurricane. 

[CECAA850]

Good deal.

[Groomlakearea51]

I guess Groomey deserted us!

Nah, just having terrible problems the last couple days with the electrical contractor on the "man cave".... Substituting 15 amp service for the specified (AND PAID FOR!!!) 30 amp service... and then having the gall to charge me the same amount and then tell me I don't need it... Give me my money back or do it right.... At least they followed the plan and it's a dedicated romex run to the main breaker box..... Flooring is in... Cherry wood.... It's sitting inside getting dehumidified, etc., etc.

In any event......

At first the Military was very concerned (last night) about the Gulf mess. But today, things had died down enough that they cancelled the reconnaissance flight. The one that shows potential for problems is #2 as shown below:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC comments on the systems shown (refer to the # on the above graphic)

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.. AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY... BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

4. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Groomlakearea51]

On the "Gulf" system, the military still believes that it could develop; thus the graphic box:

[Groomlakearea51]

On the other hand, here's the computer tracks for the "Gulf" system:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the visible image:

[Groomlakearea51]

On "system #2" off the Bahama's, it has the better potential to cause problems (lotsa rain for me....), but it too can get into the Gulf and become an "issue". Here's the tracks:

[Groomlakearea51]

And the visible satellite image:

[Groomlakearea51]

While system #3 likely may not form, if it does, here's the current track estimates:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the visible satellite image:

[Groomlakearea51]

One of the problems that we still have is the sea surface temperatures, here's the graphic:

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile, over the last 24 hours, the NHC has decided everything is sorta dying out.... Even the tracks for the Gulf system are shifted away from Dtel's wife......

Here's the NHC graphic: