End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE OUTLOOK AND THE GRAPHIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER FLORIDA COULD VERY WELL DEVELOP IN THE GULF. IF AND HOW MUCH IS UNKNOWN, BUT THEY ARE INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA EASTWARD A FEW HUNDRED MILES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

2. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ARE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

NOTE: ON #3: THAT'S 200-250 MILES EACH DAY AND WOULD BE AT OR PAST THE WINDWARD/ANTILLES ISLANDS BY SUNDAY.

[Groomlakearea51]

SOME OF THE WORST HURRICANES HAVE OCCURED IN THE LATTER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. CAT-3 (STRONG CAT-2 AT LANDFALL) HURRICANE JEANNE, THE "KILLER HURRICANE" OF 1926, ETC. THOSE INTERESTED SHOULD ALSO LOOK AT THE ABOVE GRAPHIC AT THE WAVE THAT'S JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT HAS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A POWERFUL STORM. HERE'S WHAT THE NHC SAYS ABOUT THAT SYSTEM:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AT 850 MB...THERE IS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N21W. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

[Groomlakearea51]

BELOW ARE THE GENERAL PATHS AND STRIKE AREAS FOR SEPTEMBER

[Groomlakearea51]

AND OCTOBER IS NOT TOO SHABBY EITHER.......

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE NUMBER OF STRIKES FROM 1925 THROUGH 2005 FOR THE GULF/ FLORIDA. AS AN EXAMPLE, OKEECHOBEE COUNTY (SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TOP OF THE LAKE) HAS HAD 12 STRIKES. THATS ABOUT 1 EVERY EVERY 7 YEARS, STATISTICALLY. MINUS FRANCES, JEANNE AND WILMA, THAT'S 1 EVERY 9 YEARS.

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE TEXAS COAST/ GULF AREA:

[Groomlakearea51]

INTERESTING MAP SHOWING THEM BY NAME SINCE 1950 THROUGH 2005:

[Groomlakearea51]

NHC IS ADVISING THAT THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS DUMPING ON US RIGHT NOW HAS THE POTENTIAL. IT'S DROPPING ALOT OF RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA RIGHT NOW. KNOCKED THE TEMPS DOWN TO MID 80'S LAST TWO DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND THE EASTERN GULF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM.

[Groomlakearea51]

MILITARY IS TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY: THE "CIRCULATION" IS PASSING OVER US RIGHT NOW.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3 MB DECREASE IN PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN BEFORE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HERE'S THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AS OF ABOUT 2 HOURS AGO:

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE TRACK PATHS FROM THE SUPERCOMPUTERS:

[Groomlakearea51]

Alert for dtel's wife: Watch this; it's not unusual, and may only be a rainmaker, but could be nasty weather if their predictions are correct.

[Groomlakearea51]

Wind gusts north of Orlando clocked at 47 miles per hour.

[dtel's wife]

Gotcha Groomey! Just got in from Martial Arts class with Buddy and I jumped on the forum to see what you had to say about that pesky little low.

The track shown is the worst possible scenario for this area, as most of you very well know. Let's see.....where will we evacuate????? Might as well think about it ahead of time.

[dtel's wife]

MILITARY IS TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY: THE "CIRCULATION" IS PASSING OVER US RIGHT NOW.

Can you elaborate just a little bit. Was the info posted from military or NHC?

[Groomlakearea51]

MILITARY IS TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY: THE "CIRCULATION" IS PASSING OVER US RIGHT NOW.

Can you elaborate just a little bit. Was the info posted from military or NHC?

That info message came from the Navy Met Lab. Their message was a little more clear and precise, and the NMLOC has issued a warning and assigned satellite assets to watch the thing. That's how I can obtain the GOES visible/ IR, etc imagery and the mil track path estimates.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC "description" of the potential storm:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING SHARPLY AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALL INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

The Navy's NMLOC has not issued another "text statement", but below is the "watch zone".

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC Satellite Graphic:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MIL sat photograph from a couple hours ago:

[Groomlakearea51]

Since yesterday, however, the center of circulation is further to the south, but still headed west. Note the adjustment on the tracks, and also notice that the supercomputer models are in good agreement at the moment (for at least the next few days):

[CECAA850]

It really doesn't matter where it's predicted to go, it'll end up at my door.[li]