End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Dflip]

The top winds at the moment are projected in the 115 mph range, Category 3, by Wednesday when he hits Mexico/Belize.

TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR
GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE
WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH
TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69
KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT
IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND
3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.3N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND

[dtel's wife]

Thanks for the update Dflip.

[Groomlakearea51]

Thanks for the update Dflip.

Thanks everyone for helping me out... I'm tied up until at least 5:00 PM:

An idiot crashed his airplane in the Lake Okeechobee and I've been on the phone with the Coast Guard (nav hazards); FWC (fish police); victim (who's believe it or not, uninjured...); and everyone with any interest in the whole affair, then out on the boat; underwater to make sure that the pilot did not lie and leave dead bodies inside the cabin.... and trying to figure out who to help me dive and salvage it (easy day, but takes two divers to work the lift bags); and....

I just got home and the A/C compressor is fried..... temps almost 100 inside the house and, and.....

Felix is fortunately far enough away at the moment and not calculated by any model to pose much of a threat, so I'll see ya'll later tonight.

Gotta shut down, too hot to run the computer.

[dtel's wife]

The Only Easy Day was Yesterday...

Well now Groomy, seems like that sig line is most appropriate today!

Hope things start looking up!

[dtel's wife]

Latest:

FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.

Okay, Groomy break it down for us!

[Groomlakearea51]

Well....

The "big boys" are arguing, but, my money's on the UKMET track for the moment. Look carefully, however, at the GFDL which is considered the most accurate (lately...) for anything past 36 hours. Military is banking on the southern tracks, but they will probably change their minds tomorrow. Biggest problem is that it's Labor Day weekend, nothing directly threatening the US, so many analytical assets (read that as people...) are off drinking beer, playing in the surf and generally not worried.

See below:

[Groomlakearea51]

MILTRACK:

[dtel's wife]

Hey Groomy,

If that high retreats to near FL, couldn't Felix take a northeastward track, once it passes over the Yucatan?

[Dflip]

Still too far out to provide an accurate assessment once it crosses the Yucatan. At the moment, it looks like Mexico south of the Texas border. Could it still move a bit more northerly, yes, but it doesn't look like a major problem. System 1 behind it is more interesting for the US. It has a more northerly track which could yield a hurricane with further development that will hit the US. That one will be Gabrielle.

[Dflip]

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Felix is a category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph which are expected to increase. Forecasts now say it could reach category 4, 140 mph before it hits Yucatan/Belize. It should be a major hurricane later today or tomorrow. Interesting how these things can change in a little over twelve hours.

[dtel's wife]

Dflip,

Intensity forecasting is still a major concern for the NHC, as is forecasting direction past 72 hours.

Thanks for the update.

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE LATEST SUPER MODELS (AS IN HURRICANE TRACK PATHS....)

[Groomlakearea51]

dtel's wife: The track will depend on the pressure system, but they are not confident yet that it will move away fast enough. My take is that it will track higher than Dean, but hopefully not as far north as Brownsville, etc.

[dtel's wife]

Looks like they are all in agreement with one or two exceptions! That's good news!

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE MILITARY THOUGHTS:

[dtel's wife]

I was thinking the same thing.

It's still pretty far out as far as forecasting reliability, so we will just have to wait and see.

[Groomlakearea51]

IT'S NOW A CAT-3 AS OF A FEW MINUTES AGO

THE NHC DISCUSSION REF FELIX IS WORTH LOOKING AT: THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES... AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 71.2W OR ABOUT 425 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 02/1800 UTC...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. FELIX CONTINUES ON A WNW PATH STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE...EYEWALL AND RAINBANDS. IN ADDITION...FELIX HAS GAINED SYMMETRY TO ITS CLOUD PATTERN AND CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG EXISTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N...NEARING THE S SHORE OF HISPANIOLA...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OVER NRN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.

THE "OTHER" SYSTEM:
A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED NEAR 12N39W MOVING W 10 KT. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND IN AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER...STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER E/SELY FLOW ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRETCHES FAIRLY FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 41W-47W...ENHANCED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

[dtel's wife]

"THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD"

That's the kind of stuff I don't like to hear![] More northwestward would be much better!

[Dflip]

Felix has picked up speed, it is now at 165 mph. The good news is that it is a small hurricane which will affect a much smaller area than Dean. The other good news is that it is moving faster, 21 mph, so it won't sit over any area for that long a time period. The bad news is, you don't want to be right of the eyewall. This one really picked up speed. Thank goodness this is projected to stay south of the US, at least at the moment.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 625 MILES...1010 KM
...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER FELIX IS EXPECTED
TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

[Dflip]

Felix is now taken a slight turn to the south and it expected to hit Honduras, then Belize and Mexico in the Yeracurz area.