End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Dflip]

http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s174878.htm

An interesting report on a tool that has been used for the past seven years. This report was aired when the satelitte was just being sent up. It has reached the guaranteed end of it's likfe with no replacement until 2013. Hopefully it works until then? The recently replaced former director of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) (US Department of Commerace) complained about the satelitte not being replaced and is now the former director. Given the more accurate reports we have today, I have trouble figuring out why a new satellite is not planned before 2013. The alternative if it fails is to go back to the old methods where we had 46 hour accuracy. A current comparison, the satellite would give us a projection today just west of Jamaica, to the new site west of the Yucatan. The projections for Jamaica would have to have been made when Dean was passing south of the island of St. Croix. That is very scary given the fact that the path toward Jamaica only varied to the south within the twelve to eighteen hour period before it could reach the island.

I am not posting a political position, just strictly a method that does save lives. Not sure what the government is doing?

[oldtimer]

Not sure they know what they are doing either?

[dtel's wife]

Dflip:

I thought the news reports were a little biased when reporting the resignation of the new director, who is now the former director. The now new former director was extremely critical of numerous issues with the NHC. I think some his criticism was interpreted as criticism of Max Mayfield, the old former director and thus wasn't taken very well.

Maybe Groomlake will read these posts and be able to offer some input on this subject.

[Dflip]

Christy, I actually started to write the report after I read the National Hurricane Center report, but before it was reported on CNN. They seemed to reach the same conclusions that I did. Maybe I just got lucky. I have been tracking Dean on Google Earth and have plotted each report, every three hours, so I can see a shift. Some are a short adjustment, one three hour segement, before it continued it's general west, northwest track. At present it is going a bit further north than it has previously. The last six hours is the mostly northerly progression of Dean since I started tracking it on August 15th, 11 p.m., except on the 17th between 5 a.m and 11 a.m.

[dtel's wife]

Christy, I actually started to write the report after I read the National Hurricane Center report, but before it was reported on CNN. They seemed to reach the same conclusions that I did. Maybe I just got lucky. I have been tracking Dean on Google Earth and have plotted each report, every three hours, so I can see a shift. Some are a short adjustment, one three hour segement, before it continued it's general west, northwest track. At present it is going a bit further north than it has previously. The last six hours is the mostly northerly progression of Dean since I started tracking it on August 15th, 11 p.m., except on the 17th between 5 a.m and 11 a.m.

In the words of my seven year old grandson......dang DFLIP! You are good.....you are very good.....and I love those smilies.....they make me smile!

[dtel's wife]

Thanks for watching our backs!!![]

[Dflip]

I thought the news reports were a little biased when reporting the resignation of the new director, who is now the former director. The now new former director was extremely critical of numerous issues with the NHC. I think some his criticism was interpreted as criticism of Max Mayfield, the old former director and thus wasn't taken very well.

I tried to stay away from the politics of the issue. I was more concerned about how long the satellite will last. If it fails before a new one can be launched? That is a scary proposition. If another satellite is ready to go and can be launched in a nonhurricane season then, it is not a problem. If the satellite fails in mid August, that's another kettle of fish.

I guess I would rather be safe than sorry. Lives in this case are much more important than dollars. Six to twelve hours warning is worth a lot more than 46. This is part of reason people stayed and held hurricane parties because the storm was projected to by-pass them. At 46 hours notice, you might as well be playing Russian roulette with at least 2 bullets in the cylinder. Personally, I would prefer to know the hurricane is going to pass sixty miles to the south, twelve to eighteen hours out. They could be wrong, but my chance of surviving is a lot better than a guess at 46 hours out.

[dtel's wife]

I agree Dflip. We rely very heavily on the NHC being accurate in it's predictions. At one point a year a two ago there was some discussion about discontinuing the "Hurricane Hunter" flights because of money....of all things. Can you imagine that?

It's almost impossible to ponder answers to these questions without the subject turning political.....[]

[Dflip]

Saving money vs. saving lives shouldn't be political. It should just be good policy for the government, if for no other reason because it ultimately can save them money. Homes are easier to replace than lives. The 3 for 1 damage claims on lawsuits should be enough to convince governments as to what they should do. Mind you, Ford worked out the financial aspects and didn't replace those gas tanks on the PInto. It saved them money because deaths and lawsuits, were less expensive than a recall on all the automobiles sold. Good economic policy, bad public relations. Want to buy a rolling bomb?

Hurricane projections are important and need to be accurate.

[BLSamuel]

I agree Dflip. We rely very heavily on the NHC being accurate in it's predictions. At one point a year a two ago there was some discussion about discontinuing the "Hurricane Hunter" flights because of money....of all things. Can you imagine that?

It's almost impossible to ponder answers to these questions without the subject turning political.....[]

Discussing discontinuing "Hurricane Hunter" flights... satellites due to expire with no replacement until 2013!? Too much political [bs] is most likely the root cause of such things. Very interesting and informative thread. No threat of hurricanes where I live, just tornadoes which are frightening enough and maybe a bit more unpredictable than hurricanes but not nearly as devastating on such a large scale. We saw some of the damage in Punta Gorda FL over the holidays a couple of years ago and that was terrible even a couple of months after the fact. I hope and pray that this hurricane season is mild compared to Katrina and some of the other recent hurricanes.

Keep up the great work here in keeping all informed. Hopefully the Hurricane warning and tracking systems will be improved soon instead of being allowed to fall apart as better warnings and better preparation is the best approach to keeping the most people safe.

.

[Dflip]

At one point a year a two ago there was some discussion about discontinuing the "Hurricane Hunter" flights because of money....of all things. Can you imagine that?

We haven't had a category five hurricane since Andrew in 1992, so we don't need Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Then came 2005 when we had five of them. None of them hit as 5's, but you get the point. Short-sighted planning is exactly that, it works great until you actually get the category five that you didn't plan for. Several thousand people die, or we don't know it's coming to a certain point, and 50.000 die. Is it worth it?

[BLSamuel]

Up north, Indiana, not that far north, they've closed down one or more of the NWS offices. My brother functions as a spotter and said that part of the Indiana that used to be covered pretty well by the weather radar now has no coverage. Apparently saving a few million dollars here and there is worth it to someone, but especially for hurricanes where hundreds and thousands of people can be seriously affected. Most such short sited planning is only good for the short term but is much more expensive in dollars and human costs in the long term. Save a buck or pay hundreds later ... and when hundreds or thousands die or lose everything. I think that's savings we can live without.

[Dflip]

Time for bed, I will leave it up to Groomlakearea to update on Dean. The next report is at 5 a.m. EST. There is no 2 a.m. post for the first time in the past five days.

As for the Indiana cuts, it is all about saving money. Tax dollars saved to pay for other programs and tax cuts ( I will leave it at that). Yes it is short-sighted planning, but in today's society the attention span is how many minutes/seconds?

[Dflip]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

500 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF DEAN COLLAPSED DURING PASSAGE ACROSS THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS

HAD EXPANDED TO 55 N MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE

BAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING CLOSE TO THE

CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THIS DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH ANY WIND

MAXIMUM SEEN BY THE AIRCRAFT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979

MB AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY

MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 64 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY

THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS

70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND

NORTHEAST OF DEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HR...AND UNTIL

EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR

INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT

THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LARGE CORE

SIZE...SUGGESTS THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN

PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WINDS TO

INCREASE TO 80 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST OF

THE GUIDANCE. DEAN SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY

48 HR AT THE LATEST.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON AIRCRAFT...

BUOY...AND QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS. THE INCREASED AREA OF HURRICANE

FORCE WINDS HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE

WARNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.

[Groomlakearea51]

Dflip: Thanks for the updates!! You can take a break and get some rest!!![] Also, you'll have a PM in a couple minutes.

[Dflip]

A quick look on Google Earth at the area inland from Tuxpan, Mexico indicates a substantial number of rivers originating in the mountains 5 - 7 miles inland. Many towns and small cities are located in these river valleys. 5 - 20 inches of rainfall along a combination of steep sloped, fast moving rivers and then at the base of the mountains, slow moving, meandering rivers is a ripe recipe for flooding. There could be more fatalities from tropical storm Dean than there were as a category five hurricane.

[Dflip]

An earlier shot of Dean, before it crossed the Yucatan Pennisula.

[Dflip]

Dean over the Yucatan: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/

[Groomlakearea51]

I thought the news reports were a little biased when reporting the resignation of the new director, who is now the former director. The now new former director was extremely critical of numerous issues with the NHC. I think some his criticism was interpreted as criticism of Max Mayfield, the old former director and thus wasn't taken very well.

The "new guy", Bill Proenza, at NHC had apparently upset a large number of the staff with his management "style". The meteorologists (staff...) apparently viewed the new director as more interested in politics than forecasting, thus the problem.

The QUIKSAT issue is still not resolved. Unfortunately, what the NHC director stated was not entirely true. While that satellite is/was used extensively, there are still a number of other satellites such as GOES, METEOSAT, etc (and other DoD and other agencies...) and other DoD assets that are providing very accurate & high resolution products. See below text from earlier this year:

DATA AND PRODUCT CHANGES FROM DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE/DOD/ WC-130J RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT: EFFECTIVE JUNE 1 2007. DOC AND DOD HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PROVIDE VORTEX DATA MESSAGES /VDM/ AS PART OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE OPERATIONS PLAN /NHOP/. DOD IS CONTINUING THE WC-130J AIRCRAFT RETROFIT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW SOFTWARE FOR THE COLLECTION AND TRANSMISSION OF HIGH DENSITY/HIGH ACCURACY DATA COLLECTIVELY REFERRED TO AS HIGH DENSITY OBSERVATIONS /HDOB/ THROUGH 2007. NEW PRODUCTS: EFFECTIVE JUNE 1 2007 THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ WILL BEGIN ISSUANCE OF THREE NEW PRODUCTS FOR THE TRANSMISSION OF AIR FORCE HDOB.

The NHC, however, is in the process (I believe) of making sure that they rely on multiple satellite resources for visual and IR data in the future. The NHC is not very "talkative" about their resources on a lot of these issues, and when the NHC director makes these sudden (and dramatic!!) announcements about not being able to predict past 46 hours because of the QUIKSAT problem, it tends to get alot of attention. The issue was not so much as product being available, it was more to do with the fact that QUIKSAT was a dedicated NOAA asset. I'm very certain that the NHC has made arrangements for other "products", etc. But not having their "own" satellite was the real issue I think Proenza was making. It could be a case of "it's my empire, and I want my own toy..." Apparently the news media can access QUIKSAT via RSS feeds through the NHC/TPC, and if QUIKSAT goes "offline", the media will not be able to show the "real time" graphics because the DoD and other agencies are certainly not going to provide access to satellites that do alot more than take "pretty pictures"..., thus adding to the issue.

What are "they" going to do? Dunno. There was some talk in Congress of an emergency appropriation for sensor and power systems replacement with a shuttle mission, etc. There was also some talk about speeding up the replacement to get a dedicated NOAA replacement satellite in orbit before 2013, etc. Given the last couple years, including Katrina and the NHC predictions for very bad times ahead, I would be willing to bet that the NHC has it's "assets" covered for predictions.

[Groomlakearea51]

As an example of the NHC using "different" assets, note the following from the NHC as of a few minutes ago:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 30N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS SHOWED UP WELL IN RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES. SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AM NOT SURE THERE IS A CLOSED SFC LOW WITH THIS SPINNING...WITH BAHAMAS METAR DATA TO THE S OF THE CIRCULATION REPORTING LIGHT NE WINDS. WILL DIAGNOSE THIS AGAIN FOR THE 22/1200 UTC MAP AS MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-29N
BETWEEN 72W-78W...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW JUST S OF CUBA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FURTHER S WITH THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE WAVE...S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-80W.