End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: INTERESTING FINAL COMMENT BY THE EXPERTS AT THE NHC[8-)]

DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW... SOMEDAY... WHY THIS HAPPENED. [:|]

TRACK PATHS:

[Groomlakearea51]

I KNEW A GIRL IN GERMANY BY THAT NAME ONCE..... SORRY, OFF TOPIC.....

HERE'S THE NHC FORECASTER'S COMMENTARY AS OF THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY, HE'S INDICATING WE MAY GET LUCKY.....

LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0452 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LIES BENEATH THE LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE...I WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNTIL A MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT CAN BE TAKEN. SO...INGRID WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF INGRID WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING INGRID...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN HAMPERING INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGE AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 300/6. INGRID IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THAT OF INGRID WILL DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF STEERING THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SINCE INGRID IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONE IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE MILITARY TRACK AND ESTIMATE OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT 72+ HOURS:

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE MILSAT VISIBLE PHOTO; THE CENTER IS BELOW WHAT THE NHC CALLED THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION; YOU CAN SEE THE MASSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE AS THE STORM PULLS IN WARM AIR AND IT'S CYCLED UP AND OUT. BECAUSE IT'S NOT POWERFUL ENOUGH, AN EYE WALL IS NOT FORMED AND IS NOT VISIBLE.

[Groomlakearea51]

I'M NOT COMFORTABLE ABOUT HUMBERTO DISSAPPEARING..... THE TRACK PATHS ON SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SOUTHEAST-SOUTH- SOUTHWEST CURVE WHICH IF THAT HAPPENS, COULD PLACE IT BACK OUT IN THE GULF WHERE IT WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REVISIT.....

HERE'S THE TRACK MODELS:

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S WHAT WE LOOK LIKE FROM A GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITING SATELLITE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. LOTTA ELECTRICITY IN THOSE HOT SPOTS. NOTE CHICAGO AT 3:00 AM!!! ALSO YOU CAN SEE THE SMALL HOT SPOT ON INDY. MUST BE THE LAB TESTING PALLADIUMS....

[LarryC]

HERE'S WHAT WE LOOK LIKE FROM A GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITING SATELLITE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. LOTTA ELECTRICITY IN THOSE HOT SPOTS. NOTE CHICAGO AT 3:00 AM!!! ALSO YOU CAN SEE THE SMALL HOT SPOT ON INDY. MUST BE THE LAB TESTING PALLADIUMS....

Groomlake, 3:00 a.m. which time zone, and why aren't we seeing lights in the East? If CDT, 4:00 a.m. is still quite dark in these parts, and so is 6:00 these days if it was PDT. Thanks,

Larry

[Groomlakearea51]

LarryC: Sorry, typo: should read 3:00 AM PDT

(This SAT time is in GMT); So it's at 6:00 AM EST, with the morning nautical twighlight visible effect on the east coast. It's a combination of IR and Visible from the GOES-12 SAT, thus the clouds can also be seen.

[LarryC]

Thanks, Groom -- I'm still wondering about the complete absence of lights from the East coast -- does that have to do with having composite pics? Masked out IR in some pics?

I also wonder about the color, since I recall space photos and Google Earth showing a rather neutral green-gray land instead of rich green vegetation, and not necessarily deep blue from water. So, I was wondering about masking, computer colorizing, etc., etc., etc. (Just idle questions....)

Larry

[Groomlakearea51]

Larry: Are you seeing any of the yellow heat/light blooms on the east coast on your monitor? They are there, but fainter. I can see the "bloom" for Okeechobee, Florida (very small, but there). The image is an overlay. The image is the MIL "Nexsat" system and its the "True Color" which I'll bet they are showing what the SAT sees in terms of the frequency. There was a freq selection, but I don't recall which one. Can't get there right now, on "wrong" computer.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Larry, Once the sun hits a certain point, the "blooms" temperatures are being overrided by the ambient temps of the air, thus very, very faint. Look at DC.

[LarryC]

Oh yes, I see now. Much fainter, almost a blue-green spread probably because yellow would be so widespread. I'm not used to interpreting IR light. I thought Maine and NH were like solid green, but now I see very faint yellow there, too. Hm, interesting!

[Groomlakearea51]

WELL, SHE'S HEADED OUT TO SEA... I JUST HOPE SHE DOES NOT REALIZE IT'S A TRIP TO NOWHERE.....

HERE'S THE LATEST FROM THE NHC:

THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER INGRID HAS MATERIALIZED AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BASICALLY SHAPELESS WITH NO OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS . MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PLAGUE OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER INGRID THROUGH 5 DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SHRED THE CLOUD PATTERN...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. I AM SURPRISED THAT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE OR EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING...DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL BASICALLY WEAKEN INGRID.

INGRID IS MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW TRACK... WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS WHICH PREVAIL TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OPEN WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE TRACK PATHS:

[Groomlakearea51]

Shame about Ingrid... Wanted to head to America, but never made it.... Reminds me of an old story....

A young woman named Ingrid in Hamburg, Germany was so depressed that she decided to end her life by throwing herself into the ocean. She went down to the docks and was about to leap into the frigid water when a handsome young sailor saw her tottering on the edge of the pier, crying. He took pity on her and said, "Look, you've got a lot to live for. I'm off to America in the morning, and if you like, I can stow you away on my ship. I'll take good care of you and bring you food every day." Moving closer, he slipped his arm round her shoulder and added, I'll keep you happy and you'll keep me happy." The girl nodded yes. After all, what did she have to lose? Maybe a fresh start in America would give her life new meaning. That night the sailor brought her aboard and hid her in a lifeboat. From then on, every night he brought her bread, cheese, wine, and a piece of fruit and they made passionate love until dawn. Three weeks later, during a routine inspection, she was discovered by the captain. "What are you doing here?" the captain asked. "I have an arrangement with one of the sailors," she explained. "I get food and a trip to America, and in return, he's having his way with me." "He sure is, madam," the captain said. "This is the ferry across the harbor". []

[Groomlakearea51]

TS INGRID CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HERE'S THE NHC ESTIMATE OF WHAT THEY BELIEVE WILL HAPPEN:

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A TIGHT CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...BUT BECOME IMMEDIATELY SHEARED AWAY BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HEADING FOR INGRID. THIS COULD FURTHER LESSEN THE DEEP CONVECTION... RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGH DAY 5... SINCE THE DEPRESSION MIGHT SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN... AND CONSEQUENTLY ALL VERSIONS OF THE SHIPS MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BEYOND 3 DAYS IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE BOTH THE SOPHISTICATED GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND MORE SHALLOW... DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IT HAS BEEN STEERED WESTWARD...OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS... BY THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...BUT STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS HAS INCREASED BEYOND 3 DAYS. SOME SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK... WHILE OTHERS SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

[Groomlakearea51]

TRACK PATHS FOR INGRID:

[Groomlakearea51]

THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY... AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS... HOWEVER... AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER... IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING.

[Dflip]

1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED BY
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...THEY COULD BECOME
A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

The Lx is Ingrid.

[Groomlakearea51]

INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. FORECAST POINTS FOR A BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.

TRACK PATHS: