End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's what NHC has to say:

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IS ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER... THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED ON THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

4. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the gulf tracks:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the tracks for the system off the Bahama's; I still don't like this one. It has all the earmarks and potential for a problem in about a week.

[Groomlakearea51]

And today's hurricane system report wrap.... here's that system that NHC says will likely not develop...... But then again... it's got along way to go...

[Groomlakearea51]

And a quick note, we should all thank Whomever we all worship that we do not live in Taiwan. That typhoon may bring a storm surge of over 30 feet and winds in excess of 165 miles per hour. I've been in a typhoon (in Taipei, Taiwan...) and they make hurricanes look like pikers.....

[Groomlakearea51]

NHC is watching a number of systems; most of which will not be of great social import, but.....

Refer to the graphic for their comments on each event.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.

2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

3. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

4. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE.

5. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

6. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Groomlakearea51]

Just so everyone has an idea of what we could have if we lived elsewhere.....

WDPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. STY 17W (KROSA) HAS MAINTAINED SUPER TYPHOON STATUS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS INDICATES A DECREASE IN CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. STY 17W HAS TAKEN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY JOG OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AFTER TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE PREVIOUS 06 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE NET 24 HOUR mOVEMENT HAS BEEN NORTHWEST.
B. THE CURRENT STORM INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0/7.0 FROM PGTW AND 6.5/6.5 FROM RJTD. A 05/0852Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES POSSIBLE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS, WITH A BROAD OUTER EYEWALL BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND OVER SHANGHAI. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF STY 17W HAS MERGED WITH THE STR EAST OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THE MERGER OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS INDUCING THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE STORM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B, STY 17W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH THE STORM SKIRTING TAIWAN NEAR TAU 36. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TO THIS POINT. A TRANSITORY MID- LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA NEAR TAU 48. THIS WILL CREATE A BREAK IN THE STR, AND THE TRACK SPEED WILL SLOW, WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATING A POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 WITH THE STORM IN THE RIDGE WEAKNESS. STY 17W HAS MOST LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN OVER
TAIWAN.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the IR satellite image of this monster:

[Groomlakearea51]

Navy estimates 30+ sea state (surge waves....) in the area in the blue dot box. Just imagine what that would do to New Orleans...

[Groomlakearea51]

Any vets out there who have been in a typhoon can testify to the ferocity of these storms. Except for a Cat-5 maybe, hurricanes that normally we see are "pikers"....

[Groomlakearea51]

dtel's wife (who is on the forum I hope), here's the "drizzle" image for the system that's crossing the coast line:

[dtel's wife]

I have to say we have been very fortunate so far this year. []

I really feel for those who will be experiencing the typhoon.[]

[Groomlakearea51]

The super typhoon took a left hand turn and has made landfall over Taiwan; not much info forthcoming on CNN/TWC, etc, but the winds are around 125-130 with gusts of 160 mph. Here's the military graphical track:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the IR satellite photo:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC report for today.... Just maybe we're outa' the woods (or outa' the ocean depending on how you look at it...)

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BELIZE AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW IN THIS AREA... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND NOT WELL-DEFINED. THEREFORE... THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY... IF NECESSARY.

Here's the graphic.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the computer models: NOTE: Dtel's wife: Don't get all scairt about the CLP5 track.... It always does that.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the definition and how NHC uses CLP5 (CLIPER):

CLIPER is a statistical track prediction model based on climatology and persistence. It consists of a set of equations that separately predict future zonal (east-west) and meridional (north-south) movements of a tropical cyclone at 12-hr intervals out to 72 hrs. Equations were developed in 2001 to extend the CLIPER forecasts to Day 5 (120 hours) in preparation for the release of official forecasts out to Day 5 in 2003. The predictors include the current and previous 12-hr position, the current and 12-hr previous storm motion, the day of the year, and the maximum surface wind. The initial motion of the storm (persistence) is the most important predictor for this model.

The original CLIPER equations were developed based on historical storm track data for all storms in the North Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea and Gulf of Mexico that persisted for at least five days during the period 1931-1970.

The skill of more complex forecast models is often compared to that of CLIPER. Any model that cannot demonstrate significant skill over CLIPER's combination of climatology and persistence is discarded. CLIPER can also account for relatively easy or difficult seasons. A candidate prediction model, tested during a difficult year, with somewhat large absolute track errors, might be retained for future use if its errors relative to CLIPER were small.

Note that CLIPER's errors for the 2000 season were much less at most verification times than those for the other years, indicating that the 2000 season was a relatively easy one compared to the others.

In preparation for the official release in 2003 of the Day 4 and Day 5 forecasts by the National Hurricane Center, CLIPER was substantially updated to CLIPER5. The new version of the model is based on data from 1956-1995, the prediction equations for all verifying times were changed, and new predictors were added. CLIPER5 has much smaller forecast biases, but similar forecast errors, than the original CLIPER.

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile, 3 days from the official end of the Season, Mama Nature and the Hurricane Gods have decided to try one last time (I hope...) to send something to someone. Here's the NHC outlook on this latest affair... Note: During the waning days of the season, statistically, storms that originate in the Carribean are more prevalent, so it's not really a surprise as to the origin.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON INFRARED OR NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO ARE NOT
CONCLUSIVE...BUT SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING ON ITS PREVIOUS TRACK... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/6. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LACKS ANY APPRECIABLE BANDING... AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE THAT ANY STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE... THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL WASH OUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... LEAVING THE CYCLONE UNDER A LESS HOSTILE UPPER PATTERN... BUT THE ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BE IDEAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LAND INTERACTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WOULD HINDER STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS...WHICH SUGGEST A MORE VERTICALLY-CONNECTED CYCLONE THAN APPEARS TO EXIST...ARE LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM.

TRACK FORECASTING OF WEAK SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING... AND THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFDL AND HWRF LIE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT FROM AN OVERLY STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER SCENARIO IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LOW...BUT THEN BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE DAYS AROUND THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEASTWARD WHEN THE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ON DAYS 4-5. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE UKMET. ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ARE THE BAM MODELS AND THE GFS...WHICH TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES AND SLOWLY RECURVES THE CYCLONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS WORTH REITERATING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY LEVEL IS HIGH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 16.2N 72.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 73.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 74.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.9N 76.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.7N 77.7W 40 KT - ACHIEVES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC Cone of Death..... NOTICE THE CURVE. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT STEER IT FURTHER NORTH, IT COULD "AFFECT INTERESTS IN FLORIDA".....

[Groomlakearea51]

A BETTER WAY TO SEE THIS EFFECT IS TO LOOK AT THE SUPERCOMPUTER MODELS: