Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

The computer models....

[Groomlakearea51]

While many of the tracks show it headed to south Texas, the NHC still believes that the landfall will be in Mexico.

The "consensus" model is the gray TVCN little square box line which is the averaging of the tracks. NHC has adjusted their "official" track more north than befor. The difference will be if Alex strengthens more (more northerly track), or less (more westerly track).

Keep your fingers crossed that it does not, shall we say, take the turn for the worst and make landfall in the Corpus Christi area.

[Mallette]

Hey, Marshall...what do the acronyms associated with the various tracks mean?

The Houston Communist says only a 4% chance we'll get it. OTOH, it looks like the bulk of the tracks are into Texas at some point with about half of them impacting us to some degree or the other.

As I mentioned, a good line of thunderstorms this AM rolling in from the gulf. As there really aren't any systems in the area these are likely Alex spinoffs. Further, with no really defined high or low pressure systems over the state, I really can't get a fix on what's steering it.

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

XTRP - Extrapolation using past 12-hr motion (NHC)
TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model)
NHC - National Hurricane Center official forecast

BAMD - Beta and Advection model, deep (NHC)
BAMM - Beta and Advection model, medium (NHC)
BAMS - Beta and Advection model, shallow (NHC)

GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model
UKM - United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) model (Developmental)
NGPS - United States Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model

AVNO - NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) model (formerly known as the AVN/MRF)
AEMN - NOAA GFS Ensemble Mean
HWRF - NOAA Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) model

CMC - Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) model
LGEM - NOAA Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM)
CLP5 - CLImatology-PERsistance (CLIPER) model 5-day (NHC)

[Groomlakearea51]

XTRP - Extrapolation using past 12-hr motion (NHC)
TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model)
NHC - National Hurricane Center official forecast

BAMD - Beta and Advection model, deep (NHC)
BAMM - Beta and Advection model, medium (NHC)
BAMS - Beta and Advection model, shallow (NHC)

GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model
UKM - United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) model (Developmental)
NGPS - United States Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model

AVNO - NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) model (formerly known as the AVN/MRF)
AEMN - NOAA GFS Ensemble Mean
HWRF - NOAA Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) model

CMC - Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) model
LGEM - NOAA Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM)
CLP5 - CLImatology-PERsistance (CLIPER) model 5-day (NHC)

[CECAA850]

Any idea which model is historically the closest at about 5 to 6 days out? Normally when you get to about 3 days out, they're all fairly accurate. The 18 hour prediction is virtually a lock.

[Mallette]

Magnificent hurrican sunrise over Galveston Bay this morning.

"Red sky at morning, sailor take warning, red sky at night, sailors delight."

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

Any idea which model is historically the closest at about 5 to 6 days out? Normally when you get to about 3 days out, they're all fairly accurate. The 18 hour prediction is virtually a lock.

Ok...... Heres yah go!!!

The term "forecast model" refers to any objective tool used to generate a prediction of a future event, such as the state of the atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses many models as guidance in the preparation of official track and intensity forecasts.

Forecast models vary tremendously in structure and complexity. They can be simple enough to run in a few seconds on an ordinary computer, or complex enough to require a number of hours on a supercomputer. Dynamical models, also known as numerical models, are the most complex and use high_speed computers to solve the physical equations of motion governing the atmosphere. Statistical models, in contrast, do not explicitly consider the physics of the atmosphere but instead are based on historical relationships between storm behavior and storm_specific details such as location and date. Statistical_dynamical models blend both dynamical and statistical techniques by making a forecast based on established historical relationships between storm behavior and atmospheric variables provided by dynamical models. Trajectory models move a tropical cyclone (TC) along based on the prevailing flow obtained from a separate dynamical model. Finally, ensemble or consensus models are created by combining the forecasts from a collection of other models. The following sections provide more detailed descriptions of the modeling systems and individual models most frequently used at NHC.

Early versus Late Models:

Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The 1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would be considered a "late" model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC official forecast. Conversely, the BAM models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are initialized. Therefore, they are termed "early" models. Model timeliness is listed in Table 1.

Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6_126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6_h forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and intensity of the TC. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as "interpolated" models.

Interpreting Forecast Models:

NHC provides detailed information on the verification of its past forecasts with a yearly verification report. On average, NHC official forecasts usually have smaller errors than any of the individual models. An NHC forecast reflects consideration of all available model guidance as well as forecaster experience. Therefore, users should consult the official forecast products issued by NHC and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices rather than simply looking at output from the forecast models themselves. Users should also be aware that uncertainty exists in every forecast, and proper interpretation of the NHC forecast must incorporate this uncertainty. NHC forecasters typically discuss forecast uncertainty in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) product. NHC also prepares probabilistic forecasts that incorporate forecast uncertainty information (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprobs.shtml).

Statistical Models:

Statistical models are based on established relationships between storm_specific information, such as location and time of year, and the behavior of historical storms. While these models provided key forecast guidance in past decades, today these models are most often used as benchmarks of skill against which more sophisticated and accurate models and the NHC official forecast are compared. Models that are less accurate than a simple statistical model are considered "unskillful" and models that are more accurate than statistical models are considered "skillful". Due to their simplicity, statistical models are among the quickest to run and are typically available to forecasters within minutes of initialization.

Climatology and Persistence Model (CLIPER5)

CLIPER5 is a statistical track model originally developed in 1972 and extended to provide forecasts out to 120 h (5 days) in 1998. As the name implies, the CLIPER5 model is based on climatology and persistence. It employs a multiple regression technique that estimates the relationships between several parameters of the active TC to a historic record of TC behavior to predict the track of the active TC. The inputs to the CLIPER5 include the current and past movement of the TC during the previous 12_ and 24_hour periods, the direction of its motion, its current latitude and longitude, date, and initial intensity. CLIPER5 is now used primarily as a benchmark for evaluating the forecast skill of other models and the official NHC forecast, rather than as a forecast aid.

Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR5)

SHIFOR5 is a simple statistical intensity model that uses climatology and persistence as predictors. In recent years it has been supplemented by the Decay_SHIFOR.

Decay_SHIFOR5. Decay_SHIFOR5 is a version of SHIFOR5 that includes a weakening component when TCs move inland. Decay_SHIFOR5 is most often used as a benchmark for evaluating forecast skill of other models and the official NHC intensity forecast. Unlike CLIPER5, which is not competitive with the more complex track models, decay_SHIFOR5 does provide useful operational intensity guidance.

Statistical_Dynamical Models:

NHC91/NHC98 Models

The NHC98 (Atlantic) and NHC91 (east Pacific) models are statistical_dynamical models that employ the statistical relationships between storm behavior and predictors used by the CLIPER5, in addition to relying on forecast predictors of steering flow obtained from dynamical model forecasts, such as the deep_layer_mean GFS geopotential heights fields (averaged from 1000 to 100_mb). These models no longer produce competitive track guidance.

Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

The SHIPS model is a statistical_dynamical intensity model based on statistical relationships between storm behavior and environmental conditions estimated from dynamical model forecasts as well as on climatology and persistence predictors. Due to the use of the dynamical predictors, the average intensity errors from SHIPS are typically 10%_15% less than those from SHIFOR5. SHIPS has historically outperformed most of the dynamical models, including the GFDL, and SHIPS has traditionally been one of the most skillful sources of intensity guidance for NHC.

SHIPS is based on standard multiple regression techniques. The predictors for SHIPS include climatology and persistence, atmospheric environmental parameters (e.g., vertical wind shear, stability, etc.), and oceanic input such as sea surface temperature (SST) and upper_oceanic heat content. Many of the predictors are obtained from the GFS and are averaged over the entire forecast period. The developmental data from which the regression equations are derived include open ocean TCs from 1982 through the present. Each year the regression equations are re_derived based upon the inclusion of the previous year's data. Therefore, the weighting of the predictors can change from year to year. The predictors currently found to be most statistically significant are: the difference between the current intensity and the estimated maximum potential intensity (MPI), vertical wind shear, persistence, and the upper_tropospheric temperature. SHIPS also includes predictors from satellite data such as the strength and symmetry of convection as measured from infrared satellite imagery and the heat content of the upper ocean determined from satellite altimetry observations.

Decay_SHIPS

Decay_SHIPS is a version of SHIPS that includes an inland decay component. Since land interactions result in weakening, the Decay_SHIPS will typically provide more accurate TC intensity forecasts when TCs encounter or interact with land. Over open water with no land interactions, the intensity forecasts from Decay SHIPS and SHIPS will be identical.

Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM)

LGEM is a statistical intensity forecast model that uses the same input as SHIPS but in the framework of a simplified dynamical prediction system, instead of a multiple regression. The evolution of the intensity is determined by a logistic growth equation that constrains the solution to lie between zero and the TC's maximum potential intensity (MPI), where the MPI is estimated from an empirical relationship with sea surface temperature (SST). The forecast of the maximum wind depends on the growth rate coefficient, which is estimated from a subset of the input to the SHIPS model. Ocean heat content and other parameters derived from geostationary satellites are also incorporated into the LGEM. An important difference from SHIPS is that the LGEM considers the variability in the environmental conditions over the length of the forecast while SHIPS does not; most of the SHIPS predictors are averaged over the entire forecast period, while the equivalent LGEM predictors are averaged only over the 24 hours prior to the forecast valid time. In addition, the MPI in the LGEM prediction is the instantaneous value, rather than the forecast period average used in SHIPS. These differences make the LGEM prediction more sensitive to environmental changes at the end of the forecast period, but also make the prediction more sensitive to track forecast errors. Since the LGEM model averages its predictors over a shorter time period, it is also better able to represent the intensity changes of storms that move from water to land and back over water relative to the SHIPS model.

Dynamical Models:

Dynamical models are the most complex and most computationally expensive numerical models used by NHC. These models make forecasts by solving the physical equations that govern the atmosphere, using a variety of numerical methods and initial conditions based on available observations. Since observations are not taken at every location in the model domain, the model initial state can vary tremendously from the real atmosphere, and this is one of the primary sources of uncertainty and forecast errors in dynamical models. Errors in the initial state of a model tend to grow with time during the forecast, so small initial errors can become very large several days into the forecast period. It is largely for this reason that forecasts become increasingly inaccurate in time.

Global Dynamical Models:

Global models are dynamical models with a domain that encompasses the entire planet.

Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM)

The CMC runs the global version of their GEM model through 144 hours at 1200 UTC and through 240 hours at 0000 UTC. Highlights of the resolution and physics of the CMC GEM are available in Table 2. In June 2009, the CMC GEM converted to a hybrid vertical coordinate system that is terrain_following in the boundary layer (sigma) and becomes purely isobaric (pressure) near the tropopause, a structure similar to that used by the other global models noted in Table 2. Also in June 2009, the upper boundary of the model was raised from 10 mb (32 km) to 0.1 mb (64 km). This change permits the incorporation of more satellite observations into the initial model analysis. This latest incarnation of the GEM is referred to as the GEM "Meso_Strato" version or simply "GEM_Strato". The CMC's GEM, like the ECMWF and UKMET, employs a four_dimensional data assimilation scheme (4_D Var) that allows better assimilation of off_time (non_synoptic) observations, particularly from satellite data. The CMC GEM does not make accommodations to its initial analysis of environmental conditions for TCs. Prior to 2009, the CMC GEM had a tendency to over_forecast genesis of TCs. The recent changes to the model upper boundary are believed to decrease the false alarm ratio for TC genesis, particularly at day 3 and beyond in the forecast period.

European Center for Medium_range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Model

Developed and maintained by an international organization supported by 28 European member states, the ECMWF model is the most sophisticated and computationally expensive of all the operational global models currently used by NHC. The ECMWF system provides forecasts out to 240 hours at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. Some of the specifications of the model are noted in Table 2. Due to the model's complexity/resolution, data assimilation, and the operational requirements of the member states, the ECMWF model is among the latest_arriving dynamical model guidance to NHC. The ECMWF, like the GFS and NOGAPS, is a spectral model that calculates parameters using spherical harmonics instead of grid points.

The ECMWF does not alter its initial fields for TCs. Despite this, it has shown skill in forecasting TCs. Beyond the good medium_range TC track prediction skill of the ECMWF model, its high spatial resolution has shown potential for useful intensity and wind field structure forecasting.

U.S. National Weather Service Global Forecast System (GFS)

Developed and maintained by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the GFS is run four times per day (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, and 1800 UTC) out to 384 hours. Table 2 provides some of the technical specifications of the GFS model. Of note, the horizontal resolution of the GFS model is degraded beyond the first 180 hours of its forecast period. GFS runs obtain their initial conditions from a three_Dimensional Variational (3_D VAR) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). The GFS makes a special accommodation for TCs in its initial fields by relocating the globally analyzed TC vortex in the first_guess field to the official NHC position. An assimilation of the available data is then performed to create the initial state. The globally analyzed vortex is, however, often an incomplete representation of the true TC structure. For this reason, the GFS is typically more suited to producing track and outer wind structure forecasts than to producing intensity forecasts.

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)

The NOGAPS model is run out to 180 hours four times a day (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC). Some of its operational specifications are highlighted in Table 2. The hybrid sigma_pressure vertical coordinate configuration used by the NOGAPS results in approximately six terrain_following sigma levels below 850_mb and the remaining 24 levels occurring above 850_mb at near_pressure surfaces. The NOGAPS model inserts an artificial TC vortex into its initial fields to more accurately depict the current intensity and location of TCs. The artificial vortex is created by adding synthetic ("bogus") data points to the observational data which are then incorporated during the data assimilation process. Like other global models, the NOGAPS model cannot provide very skillful intensity forecasts but can provide skillful track forecasts.

United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) Model

The UKMET model is run twice daily at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC producing forecasts out to 144 hours. Intermediate runs initialized around the 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC data cycles are run at approximately 1300 UTC and 0100 UTC, but only produce forecasts to 48 hours. Table 2 provides the current resolution and operational specifications of the UKMET. Unlike the other models noted in Table 2, the UKMET attempts to explicitly calculate the vertical accelerations in the atmosphere rather than rely on the hydrostatic primitive equations.

Like the NOGAPS, the UKMET inserts a synthetic TC vortex into its initial fields based on the current intensity and position of the TC. The UKMET typically provides useful TC track forecasts but has limited ability to produce skillful intensity forecasts.

Limited Area Sine Transform Barotropic (LBAR) Model

LBAR is a simple two_dimensional dynamical track prediction model. It solves the shallow_water wave equations initialized with vertically averaged (850_200 hPa) winds and heights from the GFS global model. An idealized symmetric vortex and a constant wind vector (equal to the initial storm motion vector) are added to the GFS global model analysis to represent the TC circulation. The model equations are solved using a spectral sine transform technique over an area near the TC. The lateral boundary conditions are obtained from the GFS forecast. LBAR includes no horizontal gradients in temperature (and as a consequence, no vertical wind shear), making the LBAR a relatively poor performer beyond 1_2 days or outside of the deep tropics.

Regional TC Dynamical Models:

Regional TC dynamical models are dynamical models with domains that encompass the area of influence of a TC while obtaining their boundary conditions from a global dynamical model.

NWS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Model (GFDL) Hurricane Model

The GFDL Hurricane Model is a limited_area, triply_nested grid_point model designed specifically for TC prediction. This grid configuration along with other technical specification for the GFDL can be found in Table 3. The GFDL is run for up to four TCs every six hours out to 126 hours as requested by NHC and CPHC. The high resolution of the GFDL allows it to resolve relatively small_scale features within a TC such as the eye and eyewall. Still, even the GFDL is not able to fully resolve the highly complex structure of a TC. The GFDL is coupled with a high_resolution version of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), which allows TC_induced ocean modification, such as sea_surface temperature cooling, and partially accounts for the feedback of the modified ocean on the TC. In the Atlantic, the POM is three dimensional with 23 vertical levels. In the eastern North Pacific where ocean currents and sea surface temperature gradients are more predictable, only a one_dimensional POM is used. In the GFDL analysis, the GFS TC vortex is replaced with an axisymmetric vortex spun up in a separate model simulation. The axisymmetric vortex model utilizes TC specifications as provided by NHC forecasters.

Since the horizontal resolution of the GFDL is sufficiently high to represent some of the inner core TC structure, the GFDL model has up to now been the only purely dynamical model that can provide both skillful intensity and track forecasts

U.S. Navy Version of the GFDL Hurricane Model (GFDN)

The U.S. Navy also runs a version of the GFDL model (GFDN) that obtains its initial conditions, aside from the TC vortex, and its boundary conditions from the NOGAPS model. The physics, resolution, and ocean coupling of the GFDN were updated in late 2008 to be mostly consistent with the NWS version of the GFDL. For the ocean coupling in the Pacific, fields from the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA), which is a high_resolution ocean analysis, are used to initialize the POM as opposed to NCEP ocean analyses that are used for the GFDL model. Currently the GFDN's ocean coupling is being converted from 1_D to 3_D in the eastern North Pacific basin, and later in 2009 the ocean should be initialized by NCODA. Additional resolution and physics upgrades are planned for the GFDN hurricane model during the next couple of years.

Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF)

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model was developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center and implemented operationally in 2007. The HWRF is run for up to four TCs every six hours out to 126 hours as requested by NHC and CPHC. The HWRF uses a nested grid system that is described along with other technical specifications in Table 3. The GSI 3_D Var data assimilation scheme uses a first guess vortex based on the 6_hour forecast from the previous HWRF run to produce an initial representation of the TC that matches intensity and structure parameters provided by NHC forecasters. The HWRF is coupled to the three dimensional POM in the Atlantic basin to better represent the interaction of the atmosphere and ocean in the TC environment, an important factor in TC intensity prediction.

Ensembles and Consensus Forecasts:

Consensus forecasts are obtained by combining the forecasts from a collection (or "ensemble") of models, where the ensemble can either consist of multiples runs of a single model or runs from different independent models. The simplest way to form a consensus is to average the output from each member of the ensemble, e.g., one computes the mean of each member's predicted latitudes and longitudes of the TC center at some forecast time. At NHC, some of the more commonly used consensus forecasts are GUNA, TVCN, FSSE, and ICON, which are described below. On average, consensus forecasts are more accurate than the predictions from their individual model components. The variation or spread of the ensemble members can provide a measure of forecast uncertainty.

Taking the consensus approach a step farther, "corrected" consensus models assign different weights to each member model in an attempt to account for biases of each individual member model. One limitation of the "corrected" consensus technique occurs when the past performance of the member models does not accurately represent their present performance (e.g., if major changes are made to a member model between successive hurricane seasons). Some of the commonly used "corrected" consensus forecasts at NHC include FSSE, TVCC, and TCCN.

Single_model ensembles are multiple predictions from the same starting time for a given model, using different initial conditions. This type of ensemble accounts for the uncertainties in the initial state of the atmosphere. Even among single_model ensembles, a simple average of its members (i.e., the ensemble mean) often produces a more skillful forecast than any individual ensemble member, since errors associated with the individual forecasts tend to be canceled out. However, the ensemble mean often smoothes out the finer_scale details associated with the individual ensemble member forecasts. In most cases, the ensemble runs are made at relatively coarse resolution compared to the parent model. Ensembles from a single model have not proven to be as useful for TC forecasting as ensembles constructed from different independent models.

GUNA

GUNA is a simple track consensus computed by averaging the forecast latitudes and longitudes from the GHMI (interpolated GFDL), EGRI (interpolated UKMET with subjective quality control), NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS), and GFSI (interpolated GFS) models. All four member models must be available at a given forecast lead time to compute GUNA for that particular time.

CGUN

CGUN is a version of GUNA that is corrected for model biases. The biases are derived statistically, based on parameters known at the start of the forecast, such as model spread, initial intensity, location, etc.

TCON

TCON is a simple track consensus calculated by averaging the forecast latitudes and longitudes provided by the GHMI (interpolated GFDL), EGRI (interpolated UKMET with subjective quality control), NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS), HWFI (interpolated HWRF), and GFSI (interpolated GFS). All five model members must be present to calculate TCON. The member models forming the TCON consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

TCCN

TCCN is a version of TCON that is corrected for model biases. The biases are derived statistically, based on parameters known at the start of the forecast, such as model spread, initial intensity, location, etc. The member models forming the TCCN consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

TVCN

TVCN is a simple track consensus calculated by averaging the forecast latitudes and longitudes provided by the GHMI (interpolated GFDL), EGRI (interpolated UKMET with subjective quality control), NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS), HWFI (interpolated HWRF), GFSI (interpolated GFS), GFNI (interpolated GFDN model), and EMXI (interpolated ECMWF model). TVCN requires at least two of the seven member models to be present. The member models forming the TVCN consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

TVCC

TVCC is a version of TVCN that is corrected for model biases. The biases are derived statistically, based on parameters known at the start of the forecast, such as model spread, initial intensity, location, etc. The member models forming the TVCC consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

ICON

ICON is a simple intensity model consensus computed as the average of the forecast intensities from the DSHP (Decay_SHIPS), LGEM, HWFI (interpolated HWRF), and GHMI (adjusted GFDI) models. All four model members must be present to calculate ICON. The member models forming the ICON consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

IVCN

IVCN is a simple intensity model consensus computed as the average of the DSHP (Decay_SHIPS), LGEM, HWFI (interpolated HWRF), GHMI (adjusted GFDI), and GFNI (interpolated GFDN). IVCN requires at least two of the five member models to be present. The member models forming the IVCN consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

Florida State University Super Ensemble (FSSE)

The Florida State University Superensemble (FSSE) is a corrected multi_model consensus that uses both dynamical models and the previous official NHC forecast as the basis of its prediction. The FSSE employs the "corrected" consensus technique where individual model biases are computed based on the past performance of each member model, and the weights for each member model are determined using linear multiple regression during a "training phase". The "training phase" includes approximately 75 individual sets of past forecasts from each of the member models. The FSSE is constantly learning from the past performance of the models that comprise it. The FSSE technique is most accurate when no major changes are made to any of the member models between the "training phase" and operational forecast phase. The FSSE technique originated at Florida State University. NHC currently receives real_time FSSE output from a version of the technique provided by Weather Predict, Inc.

National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

The GEFS is an ensemble prediction system based on the GFS model. It consists of a low_resolution (approximately 105 km horizontal grid spacing with 28 vertical levels) control run of the GFS and 20 ensemble members at the same resolution. Uncertainties in the initial conditions are addressed by the use of a technique that generates different variations, or perturbations, in the initial states of each of the 20 member runs. Vortex relocation of TCs is applied to each member initial state, i.e., the starting locations of TCs are assumed to be well known and are therefore identical in the initial states of all ensemble members. The GEFS produces forecasts out to 16 days, four times per day. The mean of the 20_member ensemble forecasts is typically used as forecast guidance, however the individual ensemble runs can yield useful prognostic information as well. For instance, the variability of TC forecast tracks in the ensemble may provide insight on forecast uncertainty. It should be noted, however, that on average track forecasts produced by the GEFS have been less skillful than those produced by a multi_model consensus forecast. The GEFS can also be used for guidance on TC genesis. For instance, if a consensus of ensemble members predicts the formation of a TC, the forecaster may consider more seriously the prospect of TC development.

ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)

The EPS is comprised of a low_resolution control run of the ECMWF global model (approximately 50 km with 62 vertical levels) with unperturbed initial conditions plus 50 perturbed members at the same resolution that are run from day 0 to day 10 followed by a further reduced resolution run (approximately 35 km with 62 vertical levels) out to forecast day 15 at 0000 and 1200 UTC. Perturbations of the EPS are generated using the singular vector approach (Buizza and Palmer 1995). For the tropics (30ºS to 30ºN), a special methodology that includes the effects of diabatic physics (Barkmeijer et al. 2001) is utilized to create the perturbations. In this respect, the EPS perturbations are likely more valid for forecasting TCs than those from the GEFS.

Trajectory Models:

Trajectory models are much simpler than dynamical or statistical models as they merely move a TC along a track based on the prevailing flow derived from a dynamical model. While trajectory models utilize information from dynamical models to represent the prevailing flow, they do not allow the cyclone to interact with the surrounding atmosphere. Another limitation associated with trajectory models is their reliance on fixed levels in the atmosphere to represent the prevailing flow. To account for the variation in the prevailing flow with height, multiple versions of the same trajectory model based on varying depths are typically employed.

Beta and Advection Model (BAM)

The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically averaged horizontal winds from the GFS to compute TC trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the impact of the earth's rotation. The BAM is based upon the concept of a simple relationship between storm intensity/depth and steering levels. Strong cyclones typically extend through the entire depth of the troposphere and are steered by deeper layer_average winds, while weaker cyclones are steered by shallower layer_average winds.

The BAM is run in three versions corresponding to the different depths used in the trajectory calculation:

BAM shallow (850_700 mb),

BAM medium (850_400 mb), and

BAM deep (850_200 mb),

Known as BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively. The performance of the BAM is strongly dependent on the dynamical input from the GFS. A divergence of the three versions of the BAM indicates varying steering flow within the parent GFS model. Hence, spread among the three versions of the BAM also serves as a rough estimate of the vertical shear as well as the complexity and uncertainty in the track forecast.

Now you know!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Magnificent hurrican sunrise over Galveston Bay this morning.

"Red sky at morning, sailor take warning, red sky at night, sailors delight."

Dave

Aarrgh Matey!!! We have little time before the storm!!! Bring me the rum and those fresh cabin girls!! Yes!! The one's we traded the gold for with Achmed in Tangiers!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile..... Back at the micro-cyber ranch....

NHC has decided that most of Texas will be spared (Guess all those candles and chicken bones that Dave and Carl used in the "ceremony" did not go to waste....)

[Groomlakearea51]

A different view.

[Groomlakearea51]

And the tracks

Notice that the closer it gets.... the better the "consensus"...

[Groomlakearea51]

WTNT41 KNHC 290855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

A 0525Z AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT FOUND TWO PEAK 925 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT LOCATED ABOUT 20 AND 45 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS ALONG THAT LEG WERE
AROUND 57 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB. SINCE THAT
RECON FLIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SMALL DEVELOPING EYE HAS ALSO INCREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND
GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR
...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR
JUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0114Z SSMIS AND 0243Z AMSU OVERPASSES INDICATED
A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE VERY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL RECON CENTER
POSITION. THIS INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS A NEARLY VERTICALLY ALIGNED
INNER CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
GIVEN THE VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS THAT
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 21.7N 91.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 24.8N 95.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 25.3N 97.4W 85 KT...NEAR NE MEXICAN COAST
72HR VT 02/0600Z 26.0N 100.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/0600Z 27.5N 102.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

[Groomlakearea51]

Important how you read this as it explains the next graphic.

It explains how far out in intensity in each quadrant that the winds are statistically predicted to achieve

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...105NE 100SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 95.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Example: Hurricane force winds on Wednesday at about noon will extend out in the directions shown:

64 KT... 30 nautical miles to the NE 30 nautical miles to the SE, etc., etc., 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.3N 97.4W...NEAR NE MEXICAN COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

See the next MIL graphic that shows the radius "rings".

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the graphic

[Groomlakearea51]

And the picture....

[Groomlakearea51]

This is a REALLY BIG storm....

[CECAA850]

Marshall, I hope your answer to me was a copy and paste, otherwise I'm really worried about you.

Thanks for the detailed explination.

[CECAA850]

Did you get your saw fixed?

[Groomlakearea51]

Cut and paste? It was just off the top of my head!!! []I did not want to get too detailed...... [6]

Saw's fixed, and I'm waiting for the temperature to dip below 100 in the workshop.... Should cool off a bit here in the next couple days. It's been over 94-95 here with massive afternoon thunderthuds. Can't even sort out my new templates without getting a heatstroke....