Hurricane Season - 2010

[dtel]

Here we go, looks like alot of rain this weekend. The arrow is not from the NWS, it's where this dummy will be during the rain. []

[Dflip]

A bit weaker than before and still moving at a good pace for a tropical storm. Hopefully this keeps up. The path has some similarities to Katrina, but this one is never going to be a Cat 5 hurricane by any way shape or means which is great news. I'm sure it will bring a good amount of rain, but given the speed at which it is passing, it's a lot better than Frances and Jeanne in 2005 which were Category 1 hurricanes but moved very slowly and damaged many roofs according to Marshall. These two hurricanes had 105 and 120 mph winds. Bonnie is going to be about 40 mph, keep on moving quickly and be done with!

Please remember that any hurricane that reaches Cat 5 at any point is bringing a terrific storm surge with it. Even if it reaches the coast as a Cat 3, the storm surge following with it is going to do much greater damage than the winds. Isabel in 2003 and Katrina in 2005 weakened as they hit the coast but the flooding up the Atlantic and Gulf coast was significant and more deaths occured from the storm surge more than the winds. For now we can all be greatful that this is just a lot of wind and rain. 

500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS

BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP

CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.

THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH

THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A

LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN

THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL

MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING

BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA

PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING

THE PAST FEW HOURS. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED

STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE

SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN

GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING

BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF

BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN

THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING

CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED

THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT

12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 84.5W 30 KT

24HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 40 KT

36HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[Mallette]

Well, there is an upper level low moving towards Seabrook that combined with Bonnie suggests a WEALTH of rain starting Sunday and then for a while.

Not a problem. We live in a swamp anyway...

Dave

[Dflip]

Bonnie is now projected to reach35 knots and is pushing a bit further east of New Orleans. The latest update:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS
FOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE
AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB.  BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...
BONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND EAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO STEER
THE STORM TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MODELS
CLUSTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTS.  AFTER LANDFALL...BONNIE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BONNIE REMAINS IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...
AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING WEAKENING OR
DISSIPATION BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWING
ANY INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  AN
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CONVECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0300Z 26.4N  83.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 27.7N  85.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.2N  88.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 34.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Groomlakearea51]

What an anticlimactic day..... All geared up, cruised around in full "Road Ranger" regalia, amed to the teeth to fend off the post storm zombie hordes, and..... all we got was about an inch of rain scattered out during the day. Oh well, 'd much rather have it that way.

In any event, Here's the "Cone of Death" (or in this case, the Envelope of Some Concern) with the relative predicted positions by time hour.

[Groomlakearea51]

The short version?

The NHC is probably not going to issue any further warnings after this morning......

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400 TC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE OW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1013 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.

BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL.

AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY. THAT SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 27.0N 85.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 28.0N 87.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 29.4N 89.7W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1800Z 30.8N 91.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0600Z 32.1N 92.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Dflip]

Latest update. It appears to be a bit slower, 30 knots at 8 a.m.Bonnie is now moving at 20 mph.

--------

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/HR.  A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
BONNIE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
STRENGTHENING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. 

[Groomlakearea51]

And it degenerated into a blustery thunderstorm......

ow we just keep our fingers crossed that we can keep dodging the bullets that will now start coming at an ever increasing frequency from the African coastline......

[CECAA850]

Got mine crossed..........

[Dflip]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

I was wondering when they would deal with these two storms. The second one looked more organized off the coast of Africa. The Sahara keeps kicking them out.

[Dflip]

 At the moment they are degenerating to a bunch of rain. It's a long way out and can refire itself at some point.

Still very early in the season, so to speak. Hopefully they will keep breaking down off the coast of Africa.

At least for another couple of weeks! Somewhere along the line of computer and hard drive failures, 

I've lost the latest the links to the hotspots in the Gulf of Mexico. If the potential hurricanes hit these spots, then they just get stronger, unfortunately.

800 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL

CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED

UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT

700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LOSE

ORGANIZATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER TROPICAL WAVE A FEW

HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO

OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL

CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dflip]

800 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A SMALL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Dflip]

Check the image in the last post for the current location and potential to become a tropical cyclone. The more easterly one has increased to medium potential. Still early but August is almost upon us.

200 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST.  ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[Dflip]

The chances of this storm increasing in intensity are improving. Still a lot of options open, it might knock itself out, or it could increase. 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

[Dflip]

This one is starting to look like it will be Colin. It's moving slowly which gives it a lot of opportunity to get organized and pick up more moisture. Still well over a week away, but... it's August.

What I find useful is that hurricanes or at least there initial status can be tracked so much earlier today than every before.

The latest update.

800 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[Dflip]

I've mentioned this site in past years, but, http://www.stormpulse.com/ is interesting if you select forecast modes and clouds on the right hand side. The clouds are there as well as the physical landmasses, deep spots in the Gulf of Mexico and all of the banks (shallower areas that are good for deep sea fishing) around the US. It shows you the potential systems in Africa and what may be coming next.

You can see another storm right behind the future Colin and some other potentials forming up in Mali and Nigeria. Just a guess, but the storms over Nigeria would be closer to three weeks away depending on how fast they move.

[Dflip]

 90% chance that this one will become a tropical storm or more. The current models have it kicking up into the North Atlantic and 

missing everything except maybe Bermuda. The air mass off the eastern seaboard seems to be pushing this one further up the Atlantic 

Coast and out to sea. Good news at the moment.

800 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST

OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION

...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.

HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT

AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15

MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF

NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER

THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SIGNIFICANT

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN

THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Dflip]

The current projections have this burning out in the North Atlantic 200 + miles off the North Carolina coast.

800 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED...
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Dflip]

It is now Tropical storm 4. The path will have it miss the US at the moment.

1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

DATA FROM AN 1148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. 

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS MOVING RATHER BRISKLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EVEN FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. 
IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT
SHOWING MORE RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  IT
IS WORTH REMINDING USERS THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS 250 TO 300 MILES. 

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AROUND 65W.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK
IN INTENSITY AROUND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 12.6N  41.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N  44.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.8N  48.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.4N  53.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.4N  57.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 22.0N  63.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N  66.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  68.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Dflip]

The latest forecast.

500 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHARPLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST...BUT HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL IN THE
REMAINING QUADRANTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14. DESPITE THEIR POOR
INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION AT 12Z...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXCEEDING
20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS TAKING A
VERY WEAK CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHEREAS THE HWRF...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS
FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WHICH ERODES THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT 5-WAVE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT SUCH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN 36
HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE. BY 48-60 HOURS...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THESE HIGH SHEAR VALUES MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF
THE THE GFS HAVING MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND ALSO DUE TO 500 KM RADIUS THAT THE
SHIPS USES IN COMPUTING SHEAR VALUES. IF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RATHER THAN OUTRUNNING IT
...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL END UP STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 13.0N  42.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.8N  45.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.2N  49.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N  54.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 18.5N  57.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N  64.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N  67.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  69.5W    50 KT