Hurricane Season - 2010

[Mallette]

Bonnied out on us...

I was really hoping for some rain.

Gulf doesn't seem to hospitable to storms so far this season.

Dave

[Dflip]

Every potential storm seems to have stopped and for the short term, even what's comming off of Africa looks very disorganized. Be greatful for the good weather.

[dtel]

I was really hoping for some rain

I think you might get some ? Still cloudy but no rain here, it's about 30 miles south if us.

[Mallette]

Be greatful for the good weather.

98 degrees, no breeze, and 90 percent humidity. You got a funny idea of "good weather."

Dave

[Dflip]

Not good for me by any way shape or form, but better than 135 kts and a tidal surge. Glad it bailed out before it hit you.

[dtel]

Not good for me by any way shape or form, but better than 135 kts and a tidal surge. Glad it bailed out before it hit you.

OR

"98 degrees, no breeze, and 90 percent humidity. You got a funny idea of "good weather."

Dave

Both can kill you but in different ways, one feels like your being tortured, the other will scare you to death, tough choice except for property damage and big things flying through the air that normally don't fly. []

[CECAA850]

Both can kill you but in different ways, one feels like your being tortured, the other will scare you to death, tough choice except for property damage and big things flying through the air that normally don't fly.

Reminds me of Rita. We had the scare followed immediately by the torture.

[Dflip]

Tropical Depression 5 has decided it left the party too early and wants another chance to make a better impression. Oh joy!

Probably not a major problem, but the gulf area is going to get more rainfall for several days.

800 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.  THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND
COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Dflip]

The 8 p.m update.

800 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.  THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[Dflip]

8 a.m update for those of you on the Gulf Coast. Lots of rain and I'm guessing heat as well.

800 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 60
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Dflip]

2 p.m. update on Tropical Storm 5:

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Dflip]

Current projection model, quite similar to what you got the first time. [8-)]

[Dflip]

The 8 a.m. discussion on the last of tropical storm 5.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...
HAS MOVED INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
NOW THAT THE LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE.  THERE IS LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO COAST TODAY.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[Dflip]

Tropical Storm 5 is still dropping rain from Galveston to New Orleans, but is no longer a storm. The next potential one has been identified, but it's moving very slowly at the moment. A lot of cloud coming off of Africa, but none of it is looking very organized at the moment, but it's still 1000 miles behind #1. So far most of the potential storms have had a hard time staying organzed after they leave the coast of Africa.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Mallette]

That stuff betweenYucatan and the west end of Cuba looks like it has more potential that I am hearing from NOAA.

Dave

[Dflip]

The 2 p.m. image. Number 1 will take a kicking when it hits land in Nicaragua and the Yucatan. It may still gain something if it hits the gulf, but most likely a good wind storm with of course rain. Of course the heat and humidity that goes with it so you want to have air conditioning.

Storm 2 is disorganized at the moment, but there's a lot of cloud circulation which could link up together to produce an early September storm/hurricane.

I will have to remember in the future to check the distances between tropical storms/hurricanes. This year it seems to be about 1000 miles which is almost 2 weeks. It seems to be a wider gap than some years, but then again maybe it's just my imagination.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. 
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Dflip]

The 8 a.m. update. Storm one is being hit by Belize and is not much of anything at the moment. Storm 2 is worth watching. It's holding the southern path and becoming a bit better organized.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Dflip]

The 8 p.m. report. Not jumping at being organized yet, but the path is good for further development. Still a long way out! The other storm is heading into Mexico near Tampico.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Dflip]

Tropical Storm 6 formed out in the Atlantic, but it's following the same path as a few others. There must be some sort of Star Wars barrier out there that keeps deflecting the storms into the North Atlantic. The biggest difference so far is this storm may produce 95 knot winds, definitely a hurricane.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONG
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICH
AGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25
KT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK
SYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE
WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/2100Z 11.0N  32.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N  33.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 12.6N  35.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.6N  38.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 14.4N  41.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N  47.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N  52.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N  55.5W    95 KT

[Dflip]

The projection models.