Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

The wind/wave forecast at the surface at 96 hours. Wave forecast is in meters above normal, and speeds and directions are the aviation type.

[Groomlakearea51]

Sea Surface Temps for next 7 days:

[Groomlakearea51]

The "anomalies", or where its warmer than it should be.....

[Groomlakearea51]

The jet stream and why it protects us..... for the moment.....

[Groomlakearea51]

The big picture......

[Groomlakearea51]

The African "poop chute"........

[Groomlakearea51]

Earl's water vapor image

[Groomlakearea51]

Visible image of Earl this morning..

[Groomlakearea51]

Fiona begins to grow.... Visible image from this morning.

[Mallette]

Earl is on the storm of 1900 path. Whilst that shield is still in place, we are also at the point in which things start to change over the southern coast and Gulf.

Bears watching.

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

They are quite concerned with "Earl", particularly in the 72+ hour mark.

WTNT42 KNHC 300845
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN
OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN
RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT
AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND
72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL.

BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 18.3N 62.4W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 65.5W 85 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

Guidance models.

[Groomlakearea51]

Assuming that Earl remains on track, the wind radius says that tS force winds could extend out well over 130-160 miles on the west (that's us...) side as it passes.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 85NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

[Groomlakearea51]

If.... during the next 48 hours things go south and it does not turn as much as the models suggest; and is closer to the west edge of the "cone of death", TS winds could very well materialize along the coastline of Florida.

This is the MIL graphic which makes alot more sense than the NHC "cone of death"....

[Groomlakearea51]

All it has to fo is "zig" instead of "zag" at the wrong moment and Florida becomes at risk for a sideswipe, not to mention the Carolina's and Virginia.

[Groomlakearea51]

Fiona is expected to form today or at tomorrow at the latest. The models all seem to suggest that it will turn north as well, but possibly sooner than Earl. It's unfortunately too far out there to really make any assumptions.

[Dflip]

I've been a bit busy with a small project I started before school starts tomorrow. It started out as a small area of porcelain tile and has become the entranceway, closet and powder room. Of course, the toilet, vanity and vanity top also need replacing, and the walls and baseboards need to be replaced. The tile is mostly laid and will be finished tomorrow, but there is still several days work ahead, but it will look a lot nicer than carpet down the main hallway.

Earl is getting closer to North Carolina, but still off the coast. It is now a low Cat 4 hurricane and will be a Cat 3 off the North Carolina cost. There will be a storm surge, but not to the same degree as if Earl had been a Cat 5 at some point. If on the coast, be prepared for rain and strong winds.

Fiona is heading further out to sea and will remain a tropical storm.

500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010  EARL

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS.
THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL.  THIS SHEAR
IS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER
LOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK
GUIDANCE.  ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW
MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS.

GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 22.0N  68.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.3N  70.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  72.8W   115 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  74.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  75.5W   115 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 36.0N  73.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 44.0N  65.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 56.0N  55.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

FIONA

500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF
FIONA...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE BANDING.  THE AIRCRAFT
FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT AND SEVERAL UNFLAGGED
SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/21 KT.  FIONA IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE VERY SOON AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL
TO THE NORTHWEST.  ALL OF GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE STORM IN 2-3
DAYS AS THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF FIONA BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF EARL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER DISSIPATION COULD
OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 16.7N  57.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 17.9N  60.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 20.2N  63.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N  66.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N  67.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 33.5N  67.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Groomlakearea51]

I do NOT like the track paths of TD9......

[Dflip]

A little early on Gaston's track path, since half have it heading up the Atlantic Coast while the other half are heading into the Caribbean Sea. Keep an eye on this one. Unless that Star Wars defense mechanism keeps working, it may very well find main land U.S.A.

As for Earl, it is going to be off the coast but will effect North Carolina, Cape Cod and the Bay of Fundy in Canada. Not a nice storm, but it isn't scheduled to hit land until it hits Nova Scotia. The good part of that is that the northeast front never hits land because that's the quadrant that does the most damage. I would be concerned about a storm surge in the areas along the North Carolina islands because it's a strong Cat 3 hurricane and it did reach weak Cat 4 status. It should have some surge associated with it, but not to the extent of a Cat 5. Katrina was a Cat 5 in the gulf and I certainly remember seeing the remnants of that storm surge. Anytime there has been a Cat 5 off the coast, then the surge usually is quiet significant and there are deaths associated with it. The waves get formed out at sea and when the sea floor get shallower, they go further inland at over ten feet above sea level.

It's also possible that Hermine will be worth watching because each hurricane is gettting closer to the coast each time. It's a mild disturbance at the moment off the coast of Africa, but in two days it will have a number and maybe a name. The trough may not be having the same effect as it did earlier.

[sunburnwilly]

Surfed at my home break Folly Beach SC all day . Jeeeeeeez , Earl was pumping in swell and providing offshore winds . It got a little spooky ...