Hurricane Season - 2010

[Dflip]

Igor remains a Cat 4 hurricane for the next three days and then will drop to a strong Cat. 2. It's still a bit away from Bermuda, but I wouldn't be planning a trip there on the Sunday. There is still a wide margin of error, but it definitely will get rain, winds and maybe a significant strike. The Yucatan Pennisula and adjacent Central American countries, in the mountainous regions are going to have to watch out for mudslides which will be a much more significant risk than winds from storm 1.

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY AND T-NUMBERS.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  AS STATED
EARLIER...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE EVOLUTION ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE AT LEAST SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH DAY 3 AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
LGEM MODEL AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

SATELLITE FIXES OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF IGOR INDICATE THAT THE
MUCH-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ON THIS PACKAGE.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH JUST
EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THIS FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE RESULTING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...WHICH IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 5-DAY POINT...SINCE
TRACK ERRORS COULD EASILY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES AT THAT FORECAST
INTERVAL.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER IGOR
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 17.9N  51.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.4N  52.8W   115 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.4N  54.2W   115 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N  55.7W   120 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.7N  57.1W   120 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.4N  60.2W   115 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  63.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 31.5N  64.5W    90 KT

[CECAA850]

I'll be keeping my eye on the one by the Yucatan peninsula.

[Mallette]

I'll be keeping my eye on the one by the Yucatan peninsula.

Me too. With the weather about to change predictability gets very dicey. That thing could wind up almost anywhere. I've seen them start down there this time of year and wind up hitting Florida.

Dave

[Dflip]

The forecast for Karl, heading for the Yucatan.

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.3N  84.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N  86.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  92.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Dflip]

If you go to Stormpulse.com and click clouds to the right hand side you can see what a big boy Igor is? I wouldn't want to be in Bermuda this weekend. Sort of reminds me of Dean, a Cat 5, but because it didn't hit the U.S. mainland it was less important.

There appears to be the making of another one just to the southeast of Julia. The storms seem to be forming up further south right on the southwestern coast of Africa and the Atlantic Ocean than Julia and a few of the earlier ones.

[Dflip]

Igor continues to barrel down on Bermuda. It's a very big storm and it really doesn't matter how much it misses the island given the current projections. It might miss the eye of the hurricane by a bit, that's a mild consolation. They are likely to take a very strong hit from a Cat 3 hurricane which has moved a touch to the west today. Of course it was a good Cat 4 hurricane, so it will carry with it a strong storm surge. Bermuda is not a good place to be this weekend.

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF
IGOR AROUND 1600 UTC. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 130
AND 98 KT...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THAT TIME..THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. BASED UPON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE LOWER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT. THE EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF IGOR IS STILL PRODUCING ABOUT
15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN THE
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WHICH
COULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT-TERM. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IGOR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT IGOR WILL BE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IGOR CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME MOTION...310/7. THE
REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...
IGOR SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING WHILE TURNING NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE APPARENTLY
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFORMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 21.7N  58.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 22.4N  59.2W   110 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N  61.0W   115 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 24.9N  62.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 26.5N  64.0W   110 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 30.5N  65.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 35.5N  62.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  53.0W    70 KT

[sunburnwilly]

Waves for the weekend , YES !

[Dflip]

Latest update on Igor. Bermuda will not be a nice place to be late Sunday/early Monday. It has a 45 mile centre and 90 mile wide hurricane winds, so the island is going to get it no matter how much the path varies from Bermuda.

Another storm forming off the coast of Africa.

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WHILE THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IGOR HAD FALLEN TO 939 MB...THE WINDS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL WERE NOT EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 115 KT FLIGHT-
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND A MAXIMUM WIND OF 77 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK AT 105 KT IN 24
HOURS AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE
DETAILS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IGOR WILL BE A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA ON SUNDAY. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS IGOR MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER.  ONCE IGOR COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

AFTER A SHORT TERM WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE LONG-TERM
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11.  IGOR IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 35N...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IGOR WILL TURN
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS ALONG 65W ON SUNDAY AND PASS VERY NEAR
BERMUDA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE NORTH OF IGOR REMAINING A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS
TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND SHOWS IGOR ACCELERATING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

IGOR HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 45 NAUTICAL MILES AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT UP
TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
BERMUDA BY TONIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/0900Z 25.1N  62.8W    95 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 26.2N  64.1W   100 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 27.8N  65.1W   105 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 29.9N  65.3W   100 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 32.2N  64.7W    95 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 38.5N  58.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 47.5N  46.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     23/0600Z 51.5N  39.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Groomlakearea51]

That "area of concern" #1 bears watching as it's on a WNW track, which unless it "turns", runs it across Florida.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Here 'tis.

[Groomlakearea51]

The computer models don't help much......

[Groomlakearea51]

Not really much more than expected for Igor's impact on Bermuda. Massive power outages seem to be the rule.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68E1T820100920

Another overview.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1313596/How-people-Bermuda-Hurricane-Igors-93mph-winds-15ft-waves.html

[gnatnoop]

their effect sure is wide ranging, i heard this morning that corpus christi had over 7" of rain and look how far it it away..

[Mallette]

their effect sure is wide ranging, i heard this morning that corpus christi had over 7" of rain and look how far it it away..

All the way to Houston. We've had clouds, rain, and obvious circulation now for 48 hours from it.

Dave

[Dflip]

Storm 1 model plot is as follows:

Kind of confusing, it either hits Belize, or kicks straight up into the gulf and the west side of Florida. Stay tuned for later updates.

Lisa looks like it might be heading in the same path as many of this year's hurricanes, Bermuda. Then again it might just head out straight for the north Atlantic.

[Dflip]

gnatnoop and Dave:

The rain in Texas is likely the remnants of Karl which died in the mountains of Mexico, inlands from Veracruz. Too far and too late to have anything to do with Igor, even though it was a big hurricane.

[Mallette]

gnatnoop and Dave:

The rain in Texas is likely the remnants of Karl which died in the mountains of Mexico, inlands from Veracruz. Too far and too late to have anything to do with Igor, even though it was a big hurricane.

It was Karl I was referring to.

Dave

[Dflip]

Here is the next storm for Mexico/Texas and maybe the gulf. This one you want to watch because when it hits Central America/Mexico it may head inland or kick back out into the gulf or Caribbean? At best this is a rainmaker for the area. The alternate paths leave a lot of options open and some of them are not very good for those of you on the coast, then again it could burn itself out in the Central American mountains? Hopefully you are lucky.

[Mallette]

The movement towards the Yucatan from its present position this time of year is a no-brainer. What it does after that is beyond any computer and model on the planet, however, as the cool fronts are now beginning to roll down regularly and the general weather pattern is making its seasonal change.

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, this one is as unpredictable at the moment as a roulette wheel.

Dave

[CECAA850]

And Matthew is born..............