Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

Now for the pretty pictures.....

[Groomlakearea51]

The lightning bolts of Zeus and the arrows of Apollo....

[Groomlakearea51]

It still appears that the system out in the Atlantic will turn north and beat up the fish....

[Groomlakearea51]

..

[Groomlakearea51]

Snapshot view of the systems.

[Groomlakearea51]

The big picture... (it's an infrared satellite thus you can see the whole "disk"...)

[Groomlakearea51]

The actual visible image.

[Groomlakearea51]

Not as much in the chute today. Also note that alot of the activity is in the southern Sahara. Hopefully it stays that way as it determines where off the African coast the plumes eject....

[Groomlakearea51]

This is what Africa looks like in visible light, as in high noon...

[Groomlakearea51]

This is a "real - time" imagery shot from the GOES SAT.

You can see in quite some detail what the TD5 actually looks like right now.

[Groomlakearea51]

Don't always assume where the visible clouds are located is where the heavy rain is located.

Here's the water vapor real-time image.

[Groomlakearea51]

Which is why we are still getting passing "bands" of rain in Okeechobee.

Okechobee is that "analy" looking hole in south central Florida.

Next is the IR version which measures heat, or lack thereof. The colder the higher the cloud tops and the colder regions are where the convection develops that will turn it into a storm.

[Groomlakearea51]

Another enhanced view. Clearly shows that the activity is to the SE of the center of circulation.

[Groomlakearea51]

Not as high resolution, but this image shows wind speeds.

Note that the highest wind speeds are..... in the SE area of the circulation. The classic location as it develops. Eventually, the SE and NE will be where the highest wind speeds will be located.

[Groomlakearea51]

And todays flight schedule....

NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

[Mallette]

I can tell you that if Isaac were still alive and watching the weather from Galveston he'd be furrowed brow. It's about 98, high humidity, hardly a breath of air stirring...not even the usual evening sea breeze.

I note outlying cloud buildups are almost to the Texas/LA border. I am hoping for them. We could use a good TS right now or at least some of it.

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

If the predictions are right, you might start getting a breeze from the wnorth or west within 24 hours. Hard to say at the moment....

[Dflip]

Storm 5 is moving a bit faster according to the 11 am posting and is now projected to have maximum winds of 35 knots, down from the earlier 45 knots. It's projected landing is the same, although it may go slightly to the east when it nears landfall.

The other two systems haven't changed in their status.

[dtel]

Well it's starting to get cloudy this morning, as long as they don't give it a number above a 1 were good.

[Dflip]

Dtel, the good news is Number 5 is now dissipated. In other words, just rain, but no high winds. Now under 25 knots and it may decrease.

Hard to say about the next storms, they appear to be a bit further north than some, which may then more likely to hit the Carolinas than the Gulf. We will see.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010
400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

SATELLITE...BUOY...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH A LARGE...BROAD...
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAINS...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND
IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/2100Z 28.3N  87.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN