Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

Just (a) pray, ( keep your fingers crossed, © burn candles and scatter the bones,or (d) all the above that NHC is correct. 90 knots or ~103+ miles per hour is a "pee bringer".

Having lived through Frances (85 mph), Jeanne (95 mph), Wilma (the speed gauge on the building dissappeared during a 117 mph gust - the same gust that removed part of the roof....), Katrina (only about 75 mph as it passed over us and out to the Gulf...), Fay (a real piker at only 65-70 mph...) and being out and about during them as was my public safety "duty", I can assure anyone that who has not been in a high wind hurricane that it is no fun. Imagine a 200 car diesel train passing over you as you lay on the tracks..... The sheer noise, vibration, etc. brings a true appreciation for the sense of our puny, irelevant, and relative insignificance in nature.

[Dflip]

The 11 a.m update. A touch less organized and still predicted to go into the North Atlantic, although there is a projection that it could come close to Virginia or Deleware.

There is another mass of clouds about 500 miles behind Storm #6 which will justify watching as it is now leaving the coast of Africa. It's westwardly edge and the east edge of six are touching .

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

THE UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE
STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING.  THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.

WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10.  ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD.  THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE.  THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT
THEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN
EVERY INTENSITY MODEL AT DAY 5 EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL.  BASED ON AN
EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT NHC...THE DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY HAS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT
SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 12.7N  34.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.0N  35.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.8N  38.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.7N  40.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N  43.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N  49.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  53.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N  56.0W    85 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

Only 85 knots!!! Great news!!! But then again, NHC is always, shall we say, "cautious".... if not quite conservative.

[Dflip]

It's now called Danielle. The 5 p.m. report follows. It intensifies on Day 3 at which point it's approaching 20 degrees N latitude. It then starts to head further northwest until it hits 60 degress W and then it heads north. In other words, still out to sea, so to speak.

An 85 knot hurricane is significant, but when it misses land, including Bermuda, do many people really care? When three in one year hit the Port St. Lucie/Stuart, Florida area, there is a significant problem as Marshall has outlined in past years. The roofs gave way because the hurricanes were very slow moving and the rain did more damage than just the winds. The roofs couldn't take that amount of rain with the winds. I still can't believe the odds that one spot could get hit that often in one year.

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. 
DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35
KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7. 
THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.

GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO
OFCI.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. 
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2100Z 13.4N  35.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  36.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.9N  39.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N  42.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.3N  44.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N  50.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 23.0N  54.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N  57.0W    85 KT

[Dflip]

The 11 am report. Similar path as previously forcasted. Danielle is going to get stronger over the next few days, but will be blocked from getting to the U.S. by a subtropical ridge. This will force it northward.

The next storm has left the coast of Africa and is now just showing as a 10% chance in the next 48 hours. Of course, it has the potential to become larger and more powerful over the week.

AT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING...
AND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 290/14.  THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY
DAY 5.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN WATERS.  AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  BY DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE
INTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH.  THERE
IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON
HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.1N  39.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N  41.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  44.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.9N  47.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.8N  49.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  53.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  55.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  57.0W    90 KT

[Dflip]

The 2 p.m. report. Danielle remains the same, but the one right behind is gaining intensity.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dtel's wife]

Just (a) pray, ( keep your fingers crossed, © burn candles and scatter the bones,or (d) all the above that NHC is correct. 90 knots or ~103+ miles per hour is a "pee bringer".

Having lived through Frances (85 mph), Jeanne (95 mph), Wilma (the speed gauge on the building dissappeared during a 117 mph gust - the same gust that removed part of the roof....), Katrina (only about 75 mph as it passed over us and out to the Gulf...), Fay (a real piker at only 65-70 mph...) and being out and about during them as was my public safety "duty", I can assure anyone that who has not been in a high wind hurricane that it is no fun. Imagine a 200 car diesel train passing over you as you lay on the tracks..... The sheer noise, vibration, etc. brings a true appreciation for the sense of our puny, irelevant, and relative insignificance in nature.

Well said Groomie. Having lived through Betsy, Camille, Juan, Bob, Katrina and a host of other hurricanes causes me to suffer serious anxiety attacks whenever a "disturbance" forms. The anxiety rises to a level of near panic when anything remotely resembling a "hurricane" even looks like it may enter the Gulf of Mexico. So, if a storm enters the Gulf of Mexico and any of you see a Jeep Cherokee with MS license plate "KLIPSCH" speeding past you.....it's just me and my family evacuating. Anything above a CAT 1 and we are "outta here"! I'm not bound to stay by "civic duty"....but I do have a deep appreciation, admiration and respect for Groomie and those like him serving the public.

I was only five years old when Betsy hit New Orleans and I can vividly recall wading for miles in chest deep water to reach "dry land". For some reason all I remember is wading through the water....I have no idea what our final destination was.

Camille struck the Gulf Coast (about thirty miles east of my family home). Our house was literally shaking. Windows, doors and walls rattling with winds strong enough to rip a house apart. Mobile homes which were "securely anchored" turned inside out with the anchors still in the ground. Roofs ripped off and houses totally destroyed....all within a block of our home.

[Dflip]

Danielle is intensifing rapidly towards 100 knots/hour, but is still on the same path out to sea. Disturbance 1, the one behind Danielle has become better organized and is likely to become Earl in the next couple of days.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Dflip]

The 5 a.m. update on Danielle and the future Earl. Danielle has intensified a bit, but the path remains consistent.

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS NOT AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT 77 AND 90 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
PULSATING FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS INDICATIVE OF A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT
IS LESS DEFINED TO THE WEST. BASED UPON THE HIGHER SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.

AN EYE FEATURE THAT FORMED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...BUT A 0434
UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER.  THAT
OVERPASS AND OTHER RECENT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...280/17.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 45-50W.  DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY 48 HOURS WHEN A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO DECELERATE AND TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE REMAINING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
28-29C.  THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A
35% CHANCE OF AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HALT THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
SHEAR...BUT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
NOT SHOW RESTRENGTHENING IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 15.9N  44.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.9N  46.6W    95 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N  48.9W   105 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N  51.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N  52.9W   100 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  55.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 28.0N  57.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  59.0W    95 KT

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MORNING. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Dflip]

An avn image from NOAA of both storms.

[Dflip]

The 8 a.m. update. Daniel will give Bermuda a lot of rain and high winds, but is scheduled to pass anywhere from twenty to two hundred and fifty miles to the east of the islands. The winds they get hit with will depend on how far to the east Danielle tracks. "Earl" looks like it's developing into a tropical storm and will become a numbered tropical depression later this morning and likely get it's official name soon. Another storm is 250 miles behind it. It looks like the hurricane season is officially here.

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS 

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

CORRECTED 70 KT TO 75 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM
0516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL.  CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST.  USING A BLEND
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY.  BOTH OF
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE
WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL.  A SHORT WAVE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A
FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. 
LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...
SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 18.8N  51.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 20.1N  52.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 21.8N  54.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 23.3N  56.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  58.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  61.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 30.0N  62.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W    85 KT

[Dflip]

This the initial tracking for Storm 7, which between 57 and 63 degrees W. Longitude heads north and out to sea. The force sheild must still be up.

[Dflip]

The tracks have not changed for either Danielle, projected to reach Cat 3 status and Earl, which may reach Cat 3 status. They are both projected to track westward, then northwest and turn north between 57 and 62 degrees W. latitude, a hundred to three hundred miles east of Bermuda. Fiona looks like it's now forming up just off the coast of Africa, but unless the trough disappears, it may be subject to the same path.

[Dflip]

Nothing much has changed with the forecasts for either Danielle or Earl. Both should curl out to see and miss Bermuda to the east. Both will hit Cat 4 status, but not bother the U.S.

Fiona is following behind Earl and is a 60% possiblility of becoming a numbered storm and then becoming Fiona. Within the next day or two, it will become Fiona. We will see what the trough looks like by the time it reaches 60 degrees W. latitude. So far the forecasts for significant hurricanes seems correct, the good news is most of them aren't hitting anyone. Of course, this is good news.

[Dflip]

Danielle is on the same projected path east of Bermuda, but Earl is going just to the west of the island. Probably not a good idea to plan a trip there in six or seven days with winds at 100 knots per hour. Two major hurricanes and the only place seeing them is Bermuda.

[Groomlakearea51]

Maybe, just maybe...... at least until Fiona gets going, we'll be spared.....

[CECAA850]

It appears that the new and improved Wall of Voodoo is working well. Hurricanes fear it and will have no part of it.

[Dflip]

Earl may provide rainfall, wind and some waves to the exposed coast of North Carolina as it continues to amp up before it heads out to the Atlantic north of Bermuda. The potential Fiona is also tracking for Bermuda and then doing the track out to sea path. The force shield seems to continue to work well. A strange year for hurricanes.

[Groomlakearea51]

Broad picture, but you can see the "slot" between the two high peressure areas that they try to get into.

[Groomlakearea51]

The 96 hour 500mb forecast. When they say 500, 750, etc. It pertains to the "picture" at that altitude which 500mB pressures are the norm.