Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the "anomalies" or those SST's that are above normal. As you can see, things are, fortunately for Florida, Texas, Louisiana, A'bama and Mississippi are beginning to settle down.

This cooling off is extrememely important because we are still in the peak times of the season. It affects the ability of the Sept - Oct storms which inhabit the Gulf and Carribean to dangerously strengthen.

[Groomlakearea51]

Couple more weeks to go...

[Groomlakearea51]

"Points of Origin" for October...

[Groomlakearea51]

The most likely paths of storms for the next month..

[Groomlakearea51]

This was at about 3:00 PM yesterday. We got the first giant rain band (the one that flooded Melbourne and I-95) and about 2.5" rain in about an hour.

[Groomlakearea51]

Another view at about 4:00 PM yesterday; still coming down hard.....

[Groomlakearea51]

The track plots are now very, very tight. The exceptions (UKMET, BAMS and CLPR) are normally way off because of what they are actually modelling, but for short term, they are taken into account by the NHC.

[Groomlakearea51]

Wee'z bin upgraded!!!! Nichole, now she is!!!!

BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST
OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR
NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE
EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS
DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
PREDICTED. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND
CUBA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 22.6N 80.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.7N 79.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 29.4N 78.4W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL

[Groomlakearea51]

My "HAARP" ULF array in the back pasture seems to be working and the new track is now more to the east and the TS warnings for Florida have been discontinued.

[Groomlakearea51]

We wuz all ready and stuff for the "event".... but nothing happened; stopped raining, cleared up, nice breeze, temps still about 78-79 degrees, little breezy, but nice breezy!

And now I must return to the sekret laboartory and turn my attention to......

[Groomlakearea51]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here we go again..... maybe.... maybe not.....

[CECAA850]

It appears that the "New and Improved" Wall of Voodoo has been working well. Dissipating threats the minute they turn toward you. Well Done.

[Groomlakearea51]

I owe it all to the chicken bones, candles, the amps and the cables strung out to the ULF arrays..... [Y]

[dtel]

What ever it takes, glad to see a change in the plan, it was right on top of you before.[Y]

[Groomlakearea51]

The latest "threat" has also died out to some degree. It ws in the "orange category" yesterday, but now is struggling for survival....

[Groomlakearea51]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile..... Otto (good German name) is "on the march". And as with such things when they march, is headed towards Paris.... Really!! The tracks point to France. The track paths also do show yet another odd historical coincidence, as in as they approach, they are deflected by..... Great Britain....

[Groomlakearea51]

Hopefully this may be the last one..... It still has a chance of turning around and running over Florida next week.....

WTNT43 KNHC 120850
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
65 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND OF 62 KT. IT IS
PROBABLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE THE VERY HIGHEST WINDS IN
THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...A DROPSONDE IN THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL SHOWED THAT THE WINDS FROM AROUND 900 MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WERE 65-70 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...PAULA IS
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFS AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IMPLY MORE
WEAKENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS BEGINNING
TO LEAN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 325/9. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. PAULA IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL ACCELERATING PAULA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TURNING
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE MODEL SPREAD IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
PREDICTED INTENSITY. A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A WEAK/SHALLOW CYCLONE SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD
LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. SINCE WE EXPECT PAULA TO WEAKEN IN THE LATTER HALF OF
FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS NOTED
IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.6N 85.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.7N 86.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 20.1N 86.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 21.0N 86.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 86.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 21.5N 85.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 84.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 83.5W 40 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

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