Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

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[Groomlakearea51]

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[merkin]

We are heading for a week in the Riviera Maya at the Iberostar Grand Parasio on Saturday the 16th. Looks like we might see the post huricane clean up and left over rain storms. It's located on the coast between Cancun and Playa del Carmen[:#] Looks like this is a slow mover and it may hang around just east of there for a while. I guess I'll have to bring lots of books and spend lots of time in the bar.

[dtel]

I was just looking at this this morning, we will be in Cozumel in 28 days. The last time we went there they were recovering from a storm and the island was kind of torn up, trees down and the trees standing had no leaves left on them.

I hope this storm goes a little more East and skips the coast and islands. We spend what little time we get there snorkeling looking at the reef so at least that will still be there.

[Groomlakearea51]

It's now pretty much going to do the grand tour of Cuba.....

WTNT43 KNHC 140859
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AS THE HURRICANE IS ENCOUNTERING 30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
SHOWS THAT THE EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL INTACT FOR NOW. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 72
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
TRYING TO STEER PAULA IN A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS BLOCKING
THIS MOVEMENT WITH THE RESULT BEING A SLOW INITIAL MOTION OF 050/4.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
FLOW TO INCREASE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE LOW LEVELS
NORTH AND WEST OF PAULA. THIS EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PAULA
TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST...WHILE THE
GFDL IS THE FARTHEST EAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
PAULA TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW
BY 48 HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ONCE IT SHEARS APART.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.3N 84.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 22.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0600Z 22.9N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0600Z 22.3N 80.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Groomlakearea51]

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[Groomlakearea51]

Now, talk about "spaghetti" tracks!!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

... The global view.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Water vapor.... you can see the shearing out to the northeast.

[Groomlakearea51]

Visible image from earlier this morning.

[Groomlakearea51]

IR image; you can see what the jet stream (upper level currents) are doing to the cloud tops.

[Groomlakearea51]

Just when we thought it was over, it appears that "Richard" is likely to form up and run amok...

We'll call it "Tricky Dick" in honor of the late Prez Nixon, as it certainly will be a "watergate" on somebody...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Groomlakearea51]

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[Groomlakearea51]

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[Groomlakearea51]

Well..... TD (Tricky Dick) 19 is well on it's way to turning into a TS and at least a Cat-1 hurricane. Now whetherr it turns into Little Richard or Big Richard... remains to be seen as it is quite late in the season.

But that's not all folks.... meanwhile off the coast of the African Poop Chute, out spews yet another potential system. Temps are dropping, but it could develop.

If it does, 2010 will be a record year for hurricane seasons with 20 systems, 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes of which 5 were major in Cat-3 or above.

Since 1995, only the wicked and disastrous 2005 season was greater than 2010.....

[:^)]

[Groomlakearea51]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EVEN
THOUGH THIS IS HISTORICALLY NOT A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN LATE OCTOBER...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

[Groomlakearea51]

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[Groomlakearea51]

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[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the discussion from the NHC, Read the forecaster's last statement.... What is significant is that in 2005, Hurricane Wilma, a very powerful Cat-2, and arguably a Cat-3 slammed across Florida on 24 October 2005.

This is an interesting analysis of Wilma. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL252005_Wilma.pdf

It would be safe to say that we are not out of the ballpark yet, if at all.

WTNT44 KNHC 210842
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE RELAXING AS INDICATED BY MOTION OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS...THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS...AND I WOULD RATHER
WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR OR OVER
THE DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO...AND A TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE
DISTANT FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE PREVAILING WARM OCEAN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY
THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.


THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135
DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS LIFT OUT THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REPLACE IT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS NEW
STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY.

I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
BECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 17.0N 80.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 16.8N 80.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 16.5N 81.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 82.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 17.5N 84.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND

[Groomlakearea51]

..WTNT44 KNHC 211444
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT WINDS OF 40 KT...RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 37 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF INCREASING MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL SEEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. OVERALL...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITH MANY CURVED BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET IN THE SHORT-TERM. WHILE SHEAR HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS DRY AIR WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SLOWING THE STRENGTHENING RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY A TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE... CREATING A RATHER LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS HIGHER THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF RICHARD DEVELOPS THE RIGHT INNER CORE STRUCTURE.

THE STORM HAS BEEN ERRATICALLY MOVING DURING MOST OF ITS LIFE...AND A LONG-TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 135/5. CURRENTLY RICHARD IS UNDERGOING AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AS IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BY LATE TOMORROW...RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE THE KEY FEATURE IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST. GENERALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE PPROACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE RIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. CONSIDERING THAT THE NEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.2N 80.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.0N 80.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 15.9N 80.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.0N 81.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 16.2N 82.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.4N 85.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 89.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER