Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

and another....

[Groomlakearea51]

Now that #2 dude way out there does have some potential..... But right now, the models being used are not considered to be accurate for long range track paths.

[Groomlakearea51]

Earlier this evening, NHC revised it's estimate, lowering the the expected count. But not by much. What's driving this season is the devlopment of the LaNina which causes early formation in the Atlantic basin. Here's the NOAA press release:

NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.

NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):

• 14 to 20 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 12 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 4 to 6 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.

“All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “As we’ve seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record.”

[Dflip]

Colin is still active and forcasted to miss the coast, although St. Pierre and Migelon, and St. John's Newfoundland may get the worst of it.

Danielle is the name of the next tropical storm and # 1 has potential, although it's initial path is also out to the North Atlantic. Don't worry, there are more to come.

800 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 25 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS
AGAIN TAKEN A TOLL ON COLIN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PULSING DEEP CONVECTION.  AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 0118 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT RETRIEVALS EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD GIVE COLIN AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RE-INTENSIFY.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AGAIN BY 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AFTER THAT.

THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12...TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. COLIN IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ANCHORED BY ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 27N 75W AND
ANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOWS
WILL MOVE AWAY AND ALLOW COLIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED
INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
CANADA.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN COLIN AND
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE TROUGH VARIES WIDELY IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MOVE COLIN MORE SLOWLY AND DELAY
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAY 4...WHILE THE UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND HWRF TAKE COLIN MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. GIVEN THAT
THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE ABOUT
1000 MILES APART...THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. ONE
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF COLIN REMAINS A SHALLOW SYSTEM
WITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE FARTHER TO THE LEFT
AND MORE SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 26.8N  67.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 27.9N  67.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.8N  67.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 31.5N  66.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 33.6N  65.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 38.5N  62.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  56.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 50.5N  45.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Groomlakearea51]

"Don't worry, there are more to come."

That would be an understatement!!!

Meanwhile, back at the satellite ranch.....

[Groomlakearea51]

The spawning grounds.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Where's the hot zones?

[Groomlakearea51]

Why are the waves tending to run south or... turn early?

[Groomlakearea51]

The big picture which shows the highs,lows, ridges, etc and the waves as they move across...

[Dflip]

Colin willing to dropping rain on Bermuda as it heads right over it. Otherwise, it's moved a bit to the east from the previous path.

500 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

CORRECTED FOR 120 HOUR FORECAST STATUS IN TABLE

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT
COLIN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE THE SURFACE CENTER 
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER FIX.  THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES ONLY ABOUT
10 KT OF SHEAR OVER COLIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER. SHIPS SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LOW FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS COLIN WILL REMAIN
OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
48 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AND COLIN SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH ICON.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT COLIN HAS
MOVED VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/04.  COLIN APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON COLIN
ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE EAST
AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS COLIN IS CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF
MOTION...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 12
TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0900Z 29.1N  66.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 30.4N  66.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 32.3N  65.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 34.8N  63.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 37.8N  61.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  54.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 51.5N  43.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

The next storm is still progressing westward, although it seems to be swinging a bit to the north already.

800 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Groomlakearea51]

The disturbance out east off Africa is beginning to look like the Kraken!!

[Groomlakearea51]

.

[Groomlakearea51]

Check out that bad boy in the south Atlantic headed towards Argentina.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the visible image fom the European Met Satellite

[Dflip]

Cokin has moved further to the north and east, not threatening the US. The next storm also seems to be taking a path to the northeast Atlantic. Good news so far, but.. they do keep forming up over the Sahara Desert. I don't remember seeing such images as clearly in past years. This may not necessarily be a good thing. Tropical storms appear a lot earlier than before. The good news is residents can evcacuate a lot earlier, or decide to stay and bear it out?

800 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOR EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dflip]

The second storm out in the Atlantic has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm, but it's path is already north and east of Colin's path, so it will stay out in the Atlantic and not bother the US.

There looks like a smaller one below storm one and three developing waves over Africa. These are crossing the Atlantic in a more southerly path than Colin. The good news is that you likely have a week to a week and a half without having to worry about hurricanes.

[Groomlakearea51]

The spaghetti charts....

[Groomlakearea51]

The "full disk" IR version, notice the other one and look below as it appears there's is another one breaking off to the north of the "chute"

[Groomlakearea51]

The" chute"

[Dflip]

The lastest image. Colin is winding down and may peter out soon. There is another system close to Florida, but only a 10% chance it will strengthen. There is another smaller system southeast of #1, although it's weekly organized. There are three possibilities in Africa, but they sometimes change a fair bit when they hit the Atlantic. They either become disorganized or form a tighter formation and become potential hurricanes.

200 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST
OF BERMUDA.

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

2. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

Colin: 

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON
COLIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION. IF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS. 30 KTS over the next 72 hours.