Groomlakearea51 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 Don't think you are out of the ballpark yet..... ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.34 KT.......175NE 150SE 100SW 130NW. Anyone out to about ~150 miles on the north side may very well get TS force winds. And since it's a slow mover.... They could hang around for hours.... Per NHC.... ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 1, 2010 Share Posted July 1, 2010 We're not only out of the ball park, but we're in the car on the way home. We got some well needed rain for our lawns and flower beds. Looks like a wet weekend ahead, but nothing out of the norm for the Gulf coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 2, 2010 Share Posted July 2, 2010 6-15" in the Houston area so far, more to the south. Pool was near overflow and had to drain. Lot's of flooded intersections. OTOH, that's how it is when you live in a swamp. Marshal, I don't know what you're seeing in the cards, but it looks to me like another may form right on the heels of this one. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 2, 2010 Author Share Posted July 2, 2010 We're getting hit right now from that low system that may form over the gulf. I just got about 2" in the last hour or so. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 5, 2010 Author Share Posted July 5, 2010 Now it's heating up..... Looks like 2005 when the African "machine gun" sprayed tropical waves out at the rate of about 1-2 a week.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 5, 2010 Author Share Posted July 5, 2010 The official version.... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 2. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.3. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 5, 2010 Author Share Posted July 5, 2010 Here's where the rainmaker is supposed to go.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 5, 2010 Author Share Posted July 5, 2010 And the possible next version of "Alex"..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 5, 2010 Author Share Posted July 5, 2010 The small picture.... Not well organized..... yet.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 5, 2010 Author Share Posted July 5, 2010 This is the best view to see what's coming off Africa.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 6, 2010 Author Share Posted July 6, 2010 Above photos and graphics are updated for today. The system off the Leeward's apparently has faded out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 8, 2010 Author Share Posted July 8, 2010 Other than a crap load of rain, the system does not appear to be of any great concern. Nothing lese on the horizon at the moment.... But give it a week or two and if the high pressure ridges go away, etc. the "waves" could develop and turn northwest. I hate it when that happens..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 I hate it when that happens..... Don't gimme that, Marshal, you love it and you know it... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 10, 2010 Author Share Posted July 10, 2010 .... as long as it's not "aimed" at my village l!!! LOL!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 10, 2010 Share Posted July 10, 2010 I've always loved storms. The years I lived in west Texas where you could see 40 miles or so of advancing thunderheads was exhilarting. Sitting out on a hundred degree plus day with not a breath stirring and finally seeing the trees and grass in the distance bend over in advance of a 30 mph or so cooling outrush of wind from these was awesome. Once I turned up E. Power Biggs playing Bach really loud and opened the windows and enjoyed a sight and sound show that was priceless as one of these advanced and the rains descended. As to the tropical variety, when we are trapped in the heat and humidity of a Houston summer watching the spiral bands move in and rush east to west in advance of a tropical storm is equally fascinating. Of course, we can live without the Ike type... 2 years ago a storm few have heard about called Humberto was one of the most fascinating and rareties of a lifetime. This thing was a little low a hundred miles or so off Galveston when I went to bed. In the morning, it was identified as a minor tropical low the weather folks said would bring a bit of rain. By mid morning, it was a tropical depression the weather folks said would disipate. By then, there were obvious east-west bands moving at high speed directly overhead and I had the feeling these guys were behind a bit. On the way to a dentist appointment that day they finally said it appeared to be a small tropical storm. As I sat in the dentist chair staring out the window I commented that if it appeared to be quacking like a hurricane. The spirals were extremely obvious and moving at what I guessed as at least 60 mph. By the time I got home at 430 or so it was Hurricane Humberto and came ashore at Crystal Beach, about 50 miles southeast of us, with considerable damage. While not much more than a hundred miles across it was the real deal and developed and moved inland in about 24 hours. Proof it pays to be prepared. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 20, 2010 Author Share Posted July 20, 2010 .... as long as it's not "aimed" at my village l!!! LOL!!! I should have kept my mouth shut..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 20, 2010 Author Share Posted July 20, 2010 Vigorous!!!!!! I hate "Vigorous" !!!! TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 40% means someone is gonna' get it...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 20, 2010 Author Share Posted July 20, 2010 The "Arrows of Death" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 20, 2010 Share Posted July 20, 2010 Knock it in the head when it goes over your house and tell it to STAY OUT OF THE GULF!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 20, 2010 Author Share Posted July 20, 2010 This bodes ill for the season..... Late July for us is way too soon. Normally things get "tricky" the first week of September for Florida.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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