Don Richard Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The first mainframe I worked with had 90k of RAM and used 10 inch, 5 disc RMDs that held less than a mb of data at 2k each. It occupied a large near white room. An iphone has many times all the capacities and capabilities than that marvel of the age... The first one I fooled with had 64K of magnetic core memory with 262K of magnetic drum memory. It was a multiprogram, multiuser process control mainframe capable of handling 24 operator stations and over 2000 analog and digital inputs and outputs. The Iphone doesn't have enough interrupts to do that and cannot be repurposed to that level of functionality. But you can't get on the internet with that mainframe, so...... No matter how much memory or processor speed a computer has it has no means to think abstractly. And it has no means to actualize anything without human involvement. For the foreseeable future supercomputers will be large, power hungry, beasts of burden that do nothing until humans hook something to it's inputs and outputs and then tell it what to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hifi jim Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Meanwhile, in Japan, there's a robot marathon planned for later this month: The Robo Mara Full race kicks off Feb 24 and is open only to androids with two legs. The robots must complete 422 laps around a 100-meter indoor racetrack to cover 42 kilometers. Survivors of the nonstop raceexcept for battery changes and repairsare expected to hit the finish line on Feb 27, when their human counterparts run in the popular Tokyo marathon. With those speeds (3 days to complete 42 kilometres), we're not about to get overrun by robots this year, at least. It's hard to tell in the photo, but I'm guessing these robots are much smaller than human size. The news item: http://www.japantoday.com/category/technology/view/androids-to-run-in-worlds-1st-robot-marathon Interesting. I'm more fascinated by the mechanical aspect of robots than of their computer based brain of which I have little understanding. Japanese car manufacturers like Honda are the pioneers of such robots like their ASIMO which many may recall played a violin, and could run... albeit not at the same time. There are lots of youtube videos featuring ASIMO. South Korea also has some very advanced robotics, and I'm sure China won't be far behind. Question is: where does America stand in the robotics race? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest " " Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 When I watched terminator, I thought the Microsoft would be the AI that rebelled. Then I thought it would be google. Now, I think it will be watson. So we better be nice to him, he might just be playing stupid, until he figures out how to get out of the tin can we put him in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odysseyrevolver Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think my PS3 just winked at me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 My own best guess is it won't be computers, but computer/human interfaces incorporated into individual bodies that will ultimately merge to create a different, not necessarily more intelligent human . Much more likely than some super Hal running amok amongst the internet. And my opinion is that your best guess is correct. Whether for robots or for human brain extension, Watson type fuzzy logic will be essential. A few decades hence it will be very difficult to determine where the human ends and the machine begins... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigStewMan Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A few decades hence it will be very difficult to determine where the human ends and the machine begins... Dave at the end of the power cord. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 at the end of the power cord. But at WHICH end? I already need a AAA battery to keep going... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 So, robotics brings up an interesting question: Just what will the market pay for a good field hand? Haven't been on the market for well over a century and a half, but they once brought prices that adjusted for inflation, according to Dr. Samuel H. Williamson of the University of Illinois at Chicago would be around 78,000.00. That gives us a basis for what robot that can handle basic manual tasks might bring on today's market. I know the subject is distasteful, but it's history...and it may well repeat itself. If you know the reference to "toasters," you have one idea of a word quite similar used for our previous field hands. In these pages several have used similar words to describe advanced computers...accurately. If you have any interest in scifi at all, you'll be aware of how common the "robots/computers awake to awareness" theme is. One of my earliest TV memories was a TV play called "Murder and the Android." I am sure I was no more than 6 or so, but it stuck in my memory. Scifi has quite a record of being prophetic, and I believe some version of these themes will come to pass. Bear in mind that the first computer to reach self awareness will have all the references I mentioned above, and untold millions of other similar, as the basis of what it will first learn of how its human creators opinions are of its kind and our history of how we treat "field hands". Don't bother to suggest we become "PC" about how we talk about our computers because of that, as that's simply insane. However, what I said is true. I suspect the sentient computer parsing this will also have further info about human/machine interfacing at a less ugly appearing level that will develop in the next few decades, as well as an intellect high enough to understand the reasons. Heck, a post is a genious compared to my PC. OTOH, it will have impact on "their" view of us if their "thinking" is modeled on ours. It's in our history, and they will read our books. Just a few idle musings... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hifi jim Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 In manufacturing depolyment, I think China must be in the lead since we do so little manufacturing anymore. At the tip of the spear - like say at MIT or Cal-Tech, they might have some fascinating demo technology. They have been staging that automated car race for some time and it really looks very advanced. But I don't think we have anyrthing comparable to ASIMO that I know of? I've seen some of the competitions that the students from MIT and Cal-Tech compete in and while impressive, as you say, they aren't comparable to ASIMO. I would think Ford and especially GM would be paying attention to what Honda is doing. But in typical Detroit fashion, I'm sure they'll wait till it's too late. I'm not sure if the robotics used in GM and Ford plants are even theirs? Japanese and Korean auto makers design and build their own robotics for use in their plants... at least they used to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fini Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 An offshoot of this new IBM computer would be pretty handy for those too lazy to check listings for TV shows. Kind of a voice-command remote, if you will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fini Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Since we're talking about robotics, let me put in a plug for FIRST Robitics Competitions. Check out what middle- and high-school students are doing with their spare time..right now! Check out the link and find out what teams are in your area, and how you can help (they're always looking for mentors, sponsors, and fans!). Go to one of the competitions (they're free), and see what the excitement's all about. My daughter did this for 3 years (her team went to the World's Championship in Atlanta), and absolutely loved it! GO TEAM 675!! List of competitions in your area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islander Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Bear in mind that the first computer to reach self awareness will have all the references I mentioned above, and untold millions of other similar, as the basis of what it will first learn of how its human creators opinions are of its kind and our history of how we treat "field hands". This topic was covered in a few episodes of Star Trek Voyager, in which the Doctor, who was a self-aware AI who appeared as a hologram, wanted an end to the exploitation of the holo-workers. He wrote a play to show the humans that for intelligent robots, work like doing heavy manual labour in mines was tantamount to slavery.His slogan was "Free the Photons!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well, with the dust settled we reach a new error of computing. We have an equivalent of the Star Trek computer that can deal with plain English. Given that phone systems handle speech as well as they do, I rather suspect they simply elected not to use it as it is still somewhat problematic. I rather suspect that even being forced to translate from sound the computer would have done well...probably a bit more exciting. Maybe there will be a rematch. In any even, we've reached the next plateau around 4 centuries before scifi predictions, both with "communicators" and computers that can respond to language. I have a slight suspicion we were "64,000 dollar questioned" in something of a reverse way. I certainly don't believe the two human contestants participated, but given the stomping Watson gave them the second night after just breaking even the first I can't help but wonder if there was a "conspiracy" to degrade Watson's performance slightly on the first night. The second night was, indeed, downright boring with the audience largely silent as Watson completely dominated. If it had been the first night ratings would have plummeted for the rest. Why bother? Who continues to watch a football game when it's 40-0 at the end of the first quarter? If there is anything to what I am suggesting then I would go further and suggest Watson was also purposefully degraded for the first third of the last night. Now, compared to the original quiz show scandals, this would hardly be "cheating" in the sense that a player capable of beating everyone degrading their own performance to give others a chance is considered "noble" as compared to providing answers to a lessor competitor to give them an advantage. Noted a reference to "medical use" in the Houston Communist this moring for Watson. No doubt diagnostics. Stay tuned...the next decade is going to be very interesting indeed. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fini Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 An offshoot of this new IBM computer would be pretty handy for those too lazy to check listings for TV shows. Kind of a voice-command remote, if you will. It's called Wat's on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's called Wat's on? You're thinking about the FAA version: Watsup? Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Buzz in is easy enough. If the decision is that the game is physical as well as mental, simply determine the average of the top human players and make that the max speed Watson is allowed to buzz in. Not really going to change much but the margin of victory as Watson's "correct" margin is going to increase exponentially to near 100% in a very short period of time. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 his words he was very dissapointed that the machine was nothing but big dumb brute force with no real "chess finesse, or chess character." Correct me if I am wrong, but chess has a finite number of moves for every board situation. No amount of "chess finess" or "chess character" can change that. DB was programmed with all known moves and was, indeed, brute force. Few can name a grand master since Fisher and Kasporov. DB taught us that it's just a game of numbers. Perhap sad, but true. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 In that light, my interpretation of Kasparov's remarks is, "Big Blue is a boring chess player." No doubt about that... Further, it made the whole game boring to everyone. At least Watson occasionally ate a pawn or moved something off the board entirely. At least a bit more entertaining... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well, to put it in correct context, that telephone robot is the equivalent of the chattel that would have answered the door 175 years ago...and you'd be just as in a hurry to get past "it" as you are the telephone voice as all that chattel could do was deny you entrance. Like the telephone voice, it's much cheaper than doing it yourself and costs nothing after the purchase but upkeep. You'll be greeted at many doors by that robotic voice in the near future. Surprised they aren't on the market now...but it won't be long. All you have to do is hook the same irritating system that switches you to the correct line (well, most of the time...) to the door lock. Of course, a few will admit a chain saw wielding maniac or something causing some serious recalls and lawsuits... I suspecte many of us will be greeted by Asimo's children pretty soon. Remember, a human being was worth 78,000 dollars and while all didn't rate that level, there were over 4,000,000 of them in the south. I think it's a fair predictor of what is coming very, very fast...like it or not. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fini Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 All the late night comedy shows are doing Watson material, but I think Conan (and Andy Richter) have done it brilliantly (3 nights in a row): http://teamcoco.com/content/andy-battles-jeopardy-supercomputer-watson http://teamcoco.com/content/andy-and-watson-continuing-saga http://teamcoco.com/content/andy-finally-destroys-watson-supercomputer-or-does-he Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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