Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[Jeff Matthews]

Just now, Jeff Matthews said:

The government is the safest bet there is.

Let me be clear, Jeff.  I don't dispute you made a FABULOUS call!  I'm jealous!  I hope you really did stick it all on the line and make a FORTUNE. 

 

I'm not sold on your notion that we are down for the count for the next 20 years.  Never have I seen the economy stagnate that long (I did not grow up in the Great Depression).  I see no comparison to the Great Depression because the government of today (with its endless ability to inject liquidity where it pleases) is managing all of this.  If you want to see an even bigger rally, they can pass an even bigger bill.  It's really that simple.    

 

 We're beating a dead horse.  You keep repeating the same points endlessly, and I keep pressing you for details that clearly waste your time.  

 

8 minutes ago, Arrow#422 said:

$2T / 330M persons in the USA = about $6000 per person in stimulus....not likely enough to dig us out of the hole even with an Economics 101 multiplier effect.

Current National Debt = $24T / 330M persons = $72,500 each + the proposed $2T = about $80K of debt load per person in the USA. 

 

(add) debt per person not that long ago was running about $50K per person.  Not many in this nation could write either check amount to get us to even.  It seems everyone was able to "wet their beak" so to speak back in the '09 debacle, now that taste seemingly permeates society as a sense of entitlement of the good life regardless of the work ethic, dedication, commitment to the necessary means to achieve such a level of economic comfort.  There's always exceptions, but if you hustle like you're poor & make it you likely earned it. 

 

It's more money than you think.  Look at the statistics of wealth inequality.  That will reveal a lot more to you.  We are talking about the stock markets.  

 

Did you realize that something like a majority of Americans is so broke, they can't come up with $400 for an emergency?  These are not stock-market players.  These are either working slaves or welfare recipients.  

 

Consider the National Debt.  We used to argue this endlessly before, and I was in your camp - an alarmist.  Until one day I finally concluded we're never going to pay it.  Never!  $80k per person means nothing - the error in this analysis is the failure to apportion it correctly, assuming it will ever be paid.  You can bet Gates', Bezos' and Buffets' shares will be much more than $80k each.  

 

I tell you what... If you want to divide the national debt equally, let's divide the total household wealth equally, too.  I'll take that deal!  If we did that, we could pay the debt, and I'll have several hundred thousand left over!

 

Be careful about statistics.  They are the easiest way to create confusion and misunderstanding.  Not that I claim to know all the answers. I'm doing a lot of asking around here.

[Jeff Matthews]

I am very interested in this market, too!  I'm not calling it either way in the short-haul.  I wish I could have called this drop when China was going to hell in a handbasket and we were still peaking over here.  Hindsight is 20/20, but now that I see the sequence of events, all I can say to myself is I was dumb, dumb, dumb.  I mean, how obvious!

 

Anyway, that's hindsight over a very short horizon of just a few weeks.  That's how long this entire episode took to develop this far.  China is now boasting recovery, and nobody seriously disputes it, although they remain "cautiously optimistic."

 

Back to "now vs. 1929"...  Today, the game is more politically rigged than ever.  1929 was truly more of a fair game than it is now.  With the new "Fed policy" and "stimulus galore," the writing is very evident...  The government is NOW IN THE BUSINESS OF PICKING WINNERS AND LOSERS.  Too big to fail is alive and well.  The trend is, indeed, your friend.  Listen to your government.  They are not bullshitting you.  If they are hell-bent to prop it up, it will be so.  This new politics of ours is so transparent that people can't even see the conspiracy right before their own eyes.  What we have witnessed is panic - people not trusting their government because it couldn't react instantaneously to a pandemic.  Follow the money.

 

Today's last hour sell-off was by all the bears who prescribe to Medwyn's view that we're still on the way down.  Granted, these times are very volatile, and it would not surprise me in the least bit to see some more big drops.  Just when will people start believing that life isn't quite over, yet?  The government says, "Soon."  If you can believe the government is really going to start doling out $trillions and $trillions (and who doesn't believe this?) your cash is going to devalue.  Don't get caught missing all the rallies.  If you got stock, you're still stuck.  If you're in cash, don't miss out.

 

That's my take.  

 

 

[Jeff Matthews]

52 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

3-26-2020,  OOOHHHH NO !!    Looks like the BULLY is back, and getting ready to perhaps do the dreaded Second DUNKING ................one hour before opening, down 400 on Dow. 

 

What goes down must go up.  20 minutes before opening, and futures are now +65.

 

Looks like a few trillion is a lot of money after all.  

 

Or is it?  

 

It's kind of tough calling the day before sunrise, isn't it?

 

 

[Coytee]

I'm not saying this is the top nor bottom.....  this story is to make people think.... (or put them to sleep!!!!)

 

I think I've told this before so if you've seen it, my pardons in advance.

 

 

I ended up with a minor in Statistics in college.  Had a professor I really liked so took several of his classes, only to find myself a mere handful of hours away from a minor so I grabbed it.

 

That said he'd come up with all kinds of kooky situations and you're going to get them here.

 

First, "what is statistics??"  It's the science of making a guess and knowing how far off that guess might be....

Second:  "Why might we DO statistics??"  Well, we might build widgets and want to know what our average defective rate is.....but, since we're human, we won't know that exact number.  GOD knows what our mean (average) defective rate is.....but we mere mortals do not.  Therefore, we do statistics to make a guess on our failure rate with a range that we know it should fall within.

 

Ok, so that was sort of the preface....  now, to the markets......

 

"There is a value that GOD knows, the Dow (or anything) will NEVER AGAIN go below"....  now, in fairness, that could be a Dow Jones dropping to a total value of $2.53 instead of the current $21,831....  we don't know.

 

BUT....look at it this way.....

 

The further down the market goes.....  the CLOSER it is to the value that God knows, it will never go below.  Therefore, the more it goes down, the safer it is to buy and the more excited you should be because the closer you are to the bottom and it can only go up from there.

 

Now I do know, one thing that causes consternation, heart attacks, stress and other health issues is....we don't know where the bottom is and that is the big issue.  If we ALL knew that the market would NEVER EVER go below say.... Dow Jones = 19,000 we'd all have a lot of stress lifted.

 

We don't know that so we get the stress that goes with not knowing.

 

Still.....the point is, there IS a value that the market, your stock, ETF, mutual fund......will never go below.  So, realizing that nobody LIKES the market to go down, if you are of appropriate age, aggressive....  it's ok to dive into the waters.  If you are 80 years old, you probably need to be diving into totally other investments and "the markets" are maybe only 10% of your portfolio.....

 

Think about the depression of 1929....had you bought in at the HIGHEST point during the depression.....you would be rich today, even having suffered the depression.  Had you bought in at the PEAK of virtually ANY market pullback from day 1 until today.....  you'd be OK but for the most recent high that we're currently down from.  If you have time on your side....don't sweat it.

 

Question.....  how many people here are calling their real estate buddies to check the value of your homes every month and when the real estate market is down, you panic??  How many people here buy something.....anything...  a Car for example.....  and pay $50,000 only to find a month later the same exact car is on sale for $40,000  (that's a 20% drop in a month)....do you panic about that?

 

I don't know....  perhaps I'm clueless.....  perhaps I simply have nerves of steel.....I don't LIKE these down markets but they don't consume me and frankly, I view them as an opportunity to buy something I WANTED to buy at a cheaper price.

[Jeff Matthews]

Up 830 early.  I wonder how all those last hour bears of yesterday feel about missing a nice rally.  They probably don't care too much; it's all going to crash anyway.

[Coytee]

Shhhhh.....  don't get too smug....  market will give them an opportunity sooner or later.

 

Just as it's never over when it goes down.....  it's never over when it goes up......

 

(I wasn't calling you smug in a negative way)

[Coytee]

Food for thought...

 

Maybe not for you Jeff M  (Matthews or Medwin???  HAHAHAHAHAHAA)

 

Anyway, those in the north have to deal with the cold of winter.....  spring comes, things thaw out and all the sudden there is a fresh new happier outlook on life.

 

This virus thing will have some controls/constraints put onto it.....we are breaking into spring/summer....the sun is coming out.  Once these things happen, the average outlook on life/markets will improve.

 

That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it......final answer!

 

 

[Jeff Matthews]

4 minutes ago, Coytee said:

Shhhhh.....  don't get too smug....  market will give them an opportunity sooner or later.

 

Just as it's never over when it goes down.....  it's never over when it goes up......

 

(I wasn't calling you smug in a negative way)

Oh, I know.  I'm just having some fun.   I'm not calling anything.  With times like these, you have people scrambling in both directions.  

[Jeff Matthews]

Medwyn made a great call, but he's a bear at heart.  He doesn't like bulls.  He was mentored by a bear.  He has gone by the name dowto1000 on ebay since 1999.  Bear is in his blood.  It is his outlook on life, and it has likely served him well from time to time - enough to have come this far. 

 

Still wish I'd have put $5 -10k in TVIX just for the hell of it, but I had never even heard of it before.  I'm still buying incrementally, but I think the peak is on the horizon.  I'm not a bear, but if we return to 29,000, I sure would like to look at alternatives.

 

 

[billybob]

Even a bear can turn on a dime.

Would like to think anyone even

remotely following the stock market is able to spot an opportunity like the TVIX recently.

There will be others.

[Coytee]

Back in 1987, just prior to "Black Monday" a Ms Elaine Garzarelli made some very bearish comments on the stock market....  guess what?  She freaking NAILED it and a mere "X" number of days/weeks later, the market fell 25% in a single day, making her the Guru of the moment.  You saw her face everywhere.  I don't recall EVER seeing a single one of her followup predictions do anything of note.  

 

She basically called for the market to go down like many voices.....and it did, now she's some hero.  Well, if you look back, though it went down, it became a FANTASTIC buying opportunity.

 

Is Mr. Medwin our forum's Elaine Garzarelli???  We won't know until some history passes but based on "day 1 of the stock market to today", I'm willing to say he's a flash in this pan.  Yes, he masterfully nailed the market.  Would it have been as masterful had the Crono-Virus NOT reared its head up and bitten the world in the hiney???  We'll never know.

 

Aside from that, we're all going to get these wonder-checks.....fine.  They're printing money now.  Is this going to cause inflation???  I don't know, I sucked at Economics 501.  What I DO know and will ask rhetorically, where are the two best places to have your money during inflationary times?

 

1.  Real Estate

2.  Equities/Stock Market

 

So if this is "normal" and follows a path like virtually every other pull back since the inception of the Dow Jones market, it's definately a pothole we've hit however, this too shall pass and a number of years from now, we'll be looking back at today's prices saying "DANG, I wish I would h ave bought some "ABC" during that crash"

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elaine_Garzarelli

 

While working as a stock analyst at Shearson Lehman, she became known for predicting Black Monday, the stock market crash of 1987. As indicated in the Wall Street Journal article on October 28, 1987, “Ms. Garzarelli, a research analyst and money manager for Shearson Lehman Brothers, Inc., turned bearish on Sept. 9. By Oct. 12, when she appeared on Cable News Network’s “Money Line” program, she was fiercely bearish, predicting an imminent collapse in the stock market. She gave USA Today a similarly dire forecast the next day.”

Despite her success, she expressed discomfort with being put on a pedestal as a seer with a crystal ball:

"I felt awkward because I got so much attention. A few weeks after that I made a negative comment, and the market dropped 120 points that day. The Wall Street Journal wrote that I had moved the stock market, and I was very uncomfortable. My career was going very nicely until then, and it was too much attention. It was a lot of pressure."^[5]

^[6]Since then, her record has been mixed. For instance, on July 23, 1996, she told clients that U.S. stocks could fall 15% to 20% from peaks reached earlier in the summer. The Dow Jones industrial average closed that day at 5,346.55--and had risen 45% by Nov 1997.

 

[Jeff Matthews]

Que sera sera!  I have truly enjoyed watching Medwin make the TVIX call.  I sincerely hope he made a killing on it.  It went up 20x!  ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS!

 

It's exactly what I'm going to do when the next pandemic hits!  🤪

[Jeff Matthews]

31 minutes ago, billybob said:

Would like to think anyone even

remotely following the stock market is able to spot an opportunity like the TVIX recently.

Let us know when you spot one.

[Jeff Matthews]

29 minutes ago, Coytee said:

What I DO know and will ask rhetorically, where are the two best places to have your money during inflationary times?

 

1.  Real Estate

When interest rates go down, real estate values rise.  Rates have been low for a long time.  Too low, really.  Expect a small jump due to recent cuts, but after that, the rate-cutting game is pretty much over.  

[Jeff Matthews]

Gold has done quite well over the last year.

[Coytee]

22 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

the rate-cutting game is pretty much over.  

 

(meant as a quasi joke)

 

Once you get to zero, it's hard to cut anymore

[Travis In Austin]

2 hours ago, Coytee said:

First, "what is statistics??"  It's the science of making a guess and knowing how far off that guess might be....

I thought that was Probability? Or is "probability" included in an academic major of Statistics?

 

I only took two courses in this area. An undergraduate business course that combined "Statistics" and "Probability" and a masters level class that dealt with the academic side of "statistics" dealt with how to set up valid studies for peer reviewed journal articles (and how to spot flawed or weak studies). The graduate course went in depth on variables and correlation in a number of academic areas including medicine, science, history, psychology, social sciences and economics.

 

Are "probability" and "statistics two separate disciplines or inextricably intertwined and considered to be one?

 

Travis

[Jeff Matthews]

41 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Negative interest rates exist  today.

Yes, it's amazing!  I don't know yet what to make of it.  

[billybob]

Probability. and Statistics are 2 separate entitles imo.

In the case of the stock market, they come together in the case of decision making. Sometime, they remain apart.

A fair read on the one is the Statistical Survey. A little dated now but, written by Dr Charles Lininger,of the World Population Council.

[Coytee]

8 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

I thought that was Probability? Or is "probability" included in an academic major of Statistics?

 

I only took two courses in this area. An undergraduate business course that combined "Statistics" and "Probability" and a masters level class that dealt with the academic side of "statistics" dealt with how to set up valid studies for peer reviewed journal articles (and how to spot flawed or weak studies). The graduate course went in depth on variables and correlation in a number of academic areas including medicine, science, history, psychology, social sciences and economics.

 

Are "probability" and "statistics two separate disciplines or inextricably intertwined and considered to be one?

 

Travis

 

 

Yes, it's probability...  so you are going to make a guess that your defective rate is say, .04%...after doing some analysis, you can then state with "X" percent certainty that your defective rate is .04% plus/minus .005 so reworded, you can say with (for example) 95% confidence that your defective rate falls somewhere between .035% and .045%

 

That's my quick recollection....  it has been a number of years since I've dusted any of that off my memory banks!!