Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[Jeff Matthews]

Anyone care to make a precdiction?

[Schu]

UP

 

[JJkizak]

I think it will fall up.

JJK

[polizzio]

9 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

We just experienced a price GAP, on the Dow Jones Chart , and ............in the Down Direction.

 

The difference between 2020 and 1929, is that we are over - valued on a Price VS Earnings ratio, by about 50 percent more in 2020, than in 1929 ( see " D. Short Investment Advisers " web site, Jill Mislinsky's columns ),............ In 2020 Jill says we are in the 100th Percentile of 1871 - 2020 in stock valuations. 

 

Note above circled data, on that ONLY other GAP DOWN in market history.   Dow Jones eventually dropped 84% in its value.  Draw your own conclusions.  Above is just the facts.

 

Things certainly change in 90 years, but the ONE common denominator is  :   it is PEOPLE buying and selling to psychological extremes of human greed and then human fear.

 

Jeffrey Medwin

 

 

 

I actually agree with Jeff's assessment above. If you plot the Dow Jones performance for the last 45 years, what actually accounts for the massive runup in the last 25 or so years?

 

It sure is not stock fundamentals. Pure greed, after interest rates declined to lows, people want returns, they want to get rich/gain wealth long term. So they invest in the market. Interest rates so low many retired folks could not connect the dots on cds and their rate of returns. 

 

1993 = DJ of ~ 5600. Massive runup in the 90s and beyond until today. Look at the plot. PEs don't mean anything, fundamentals don't mean much. Plot share prices of Netflix, Amazon, Tesla to name a few. Study their current valuations, PE, and multi year financials and balance sheets.

 

Apple is warranted, study its ROCE and financials. A money printing/revenue generating enterprise. Too late to get on the explosion, AAPL split 1 for 7 in 2014, plus another 3 or 4 times value growth. A $50,000 investment in AAPL stock Jan 2014 = 500 or 600,000 dollars valuation today easy. Nobody out there matches AAPL 21% net return on income generated. Nobody!

 

House of cards really, coupled with a massive, growing, and cancerous national debt level. What could possibly go wrong?

[oldtimer]

On the bright side there has been a huge bond rally....if you're a bondholder.  To paraphrase Dirty Harry, are ya diversified?  Well are ya, ….

[Jeff Matthews]

13 minutes ago, polizzio said:

Interest rates so low many retired folks could not connect the dots on cds and their rate of returns. 

Lots of money looking for returns.

[polizzio]

1 minute ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Lots of money looking for returns.

 

No doubt. When u r retired and can no longer connect the dots, you act out of desperation sometimes. Or Tom Selleck's reverse mortgage.

 

T bill rates plotted over last 40 years: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^TYX/chart?p=^TYX#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%3D

[polizzio]

To add contrast vs AAPL performance, Amazon stock price currently $2003 per share. Its PE = 87....pretty stratospheric. Amazon's net profit margin is 4% vs AAPL of 21%. Amazon total revenue for 2019 was 280 billion dollars. AAPL = 260 billion 2019 tot rev.

 

I'm sure Jeff Bezos appreciates investor's buzz for his brainchild. Bezos net worth even after his recent divorce = 124 billion dollars.

[CECAA850]

I'll need to consult with my financial consultant prior to voting.    He's changing his specialty from sports to the stock market.  He's consistently done better that the so called experts.

[oldtimer]

3 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Why don't you vote - above ?

It's not my philosophy to predict.

As noted economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Samuelson put it, “Investing should be like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement … go to Las Vegas.”

 

I will say that predictions regarding drastic changes to our economy based on executive branch (so-called) leadership have always been false, otherwise we would have already had "European style socialism", if any of those short term attention span theater people can recall that prediction.

[Noisebleed]

With the coronavirus scare she's gonna drop.

[polizzio]

10 hours ago, Noisebleed said:

With the coronavirus scare she's gonna drop.

 

Plenty blood @ opening this morning. American markets opened Dow down 500. Lots of selling. American Airlines opened the day down 10%. Major airlines are getting spanked big time.

[Arrow#422]

Perrrrrfect !

Your position, and thus your overall outlook, may be quite different but I intend to be buying in at every 1500 point (5%) decline !

A bloated 29,500 starting point down to:   28,000 -  26,500 - 25,000 - 23,500 -  22,000 -  20,500 -  19,000

If the DJIA goes to 19,000 that would be a full 35% haircut & I'd be dollar cost averaged "IN" at about 23,500 assuming equal capital allocation amounts at each level noted.

@ 23,400 we'd be back to the hiccup down / low point that occurred back in December of 2018 which represents a 20% down turn from all-time highs.

It's only "lost" money if you SELL. 

Turn up the music, enjoy the ride if you can, and party on without the drama of the media frenzy.......

 

 

 

[polizzio]

Down 630 right now...there is no escaping the drama. But hey if your strategy is to turn up the music, ignore the obvious, and party on.....then so be it. Light up a doob while ur at it

[Arrow#422]

Can I order up another 6,000 point decline so I can just pile my chips into the market all at once?

The recent run-up was a farce, correction was NEEDED.

 

In my opinion, this sequence of events will allow for great opportunities to BUY.

Even the "$hit hit the fan" collapse in 08-10 allowed for blind guess gains of 30-50% but only if you had the capital & "stones" to invest, and then endure the choppy waters.

 

[oldtimer]

[polizzio]

14 minutes ago, Arrow#422 said:

Can I order up another 6,000 point decline so I can just pile my chips into the market all at once?

The recent run-up was a farce, correction was NEEDED.

 

In my opinion, this sequence of events will allow for great opportunities to BUY.

 

Absolutely. I'm waiting for a grand opportunity. Dow @ 19,000 would make me very happy. The real trick is to identify a bottom, or close to it. 

 

I made 200-300 thousand gain easy after the late 2008 debacle. I had moved to 95% cash with int beforehand in my 401k. I did really well in 2009 and 2010.

[billybob]

As with individual stock issue, the broader market will find a bottom, or a false bottom. There will be buying opportunities. The problem is trying to catch a falling knife.

If one is quick, having time to trade, as opposed to invest, one can take advantage of an up and down market we see at times. There in lies the problem with a falling market. Recognizing the bottom is abit of an art form no matter the T/A tools available.

Good fortune!

[CECAA850]

You predicted a correction that week which never happened.  You never predicted a market reaction to a virus.  I think this falls under "even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally" category. 

[polizzio]

17 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

 

 

My advice was met with disbelief and derision, to the point that the Forum powers that be,  elected, after the gap-down day,  to lock that thread.

 

When I divulged I was 100% short the market, here was one Bull's reaction :          

 

That quote below yours was my quote, and I still stand by it. Any investor (especially a self proclaimed professional trader/advisor) who advocates 100% anything concerning their personal portfolio or advocates to others is straight up crazy. You also made the prediction Apple stock would be trading @ $66 a share in the coming days. Your original post/thread which was deleted and you were locked out of originated 2 or 3 weeks ago. 

 

Find any post of mine where I indicate I am a market bull as you state above. Any post of mine in the last month. Post a quote. Evidently you have now resorted to creating "facts" to support your earlier rants.

You were locked out of your own thread because you were giving unsound or questionable advice which could cause great harm to a less experienced investor. Mods determined your posts were perhaps a threat to an unsuspecting reader here.