colterphoto1 Posted September 27, 2006 Share Posted September 27, 2006 does anyone have any idea what this thread is about? All I'm getting is clicking noises over here clickcli-clickity-click. ~ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY~ 'If you lived around me you might see some minds being blown' J. Hendrix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted September 28, 2006 Author Share Posted September 28, 2006 s&p 500 (SP500.NDX) - Sep 28, 2006. Close: 1 336.59 , an inverse Tweedledee Tweedledum formation* neckline,has been broken at ~1320 watch an see if the neckline holds on retest * =Inverse Head & Shoulders formation ~$~ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 does anyone have any idea what this thread is about? All I'm getting is clicking noises over here clickcli-clickity-click. ~ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY~ 'If you lived around me you might see some minds being blown' J. Hendrix Michael, for the most part (with musical interludes) it is about the use of technical analysis as a guide for making money in the market. It is sort of like palm reading. You may think it's total bs but if enough people believe in it and act on it then it has a certain self fulfilling prophesy aspect. There is still enough of this stuff around that even those who don't buy into the idea pay attention to it because enough others act using it, so it factors into the guessing and second guessing decisions (keep in mind these are educated and experienced guesses) that ultimately make up the market as a whole. Understand now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coytee Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Johny, (or anyone else who might have the tools/expertise) Here's a thread for ya with a question, so as to not mess with this thread. http://forums.klipsch.com/forums/thread/805165.aspx Basic question there is, can you plot the price of gas along with election periods to see if there is any relationship between the two (gas prices pushing down, prior to election) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacksonbart Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 ; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Matthews Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 does anyone have any idea what this thread is about? All I'm getting is clicking noises over here clickcli-clickity-click. ~ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY~ 'If you lived around me you might see some minds being blown' J. Hendrix Michael, for the most part (with musical interludes) it is about the use of technical analysis as a guide for making money in the market. It is sort of like palm reading. You may think it's total bs but if enough people believe in it and act on it then it has a certain self fulfilling prophesy aspect. There is still enough of this stuff around that even those who don't buy into the idea pay attention to it because enough others act using it, so it factors into the guessing and second guessing decisions (keep in mind these are educated and experienced guesses) that ultimately make up the market as a whole. Understand now? Oldie, you said what I've been thinking for quite some time. Like "politics is for the politicians," trading is for the traders. But it is obviously a market driven by real human reaction and faith. I think it odd that oil prices vary daily. Monday's price will not be Tuesday's price, which to me, is silly. What? Did they wake up and decide there was less oil in the world? Same goes for stocks. The market seems to be so wound up on daily pricing, but barring special events, I see little need for that. Nonetheless, the market works that way, so I believe it is because of traders... viz a vis... Trading is for the traders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 The VIX measures fear levels in the market, confidence, and complacency. What the VIX showed up until MAY this year, was a very fascinating "concentric circle cycle pattern". What made if fascinating, what the VIX moved exactly within the upper and lower extremes of the concentric circles and the market went up and down in tandem with the pattern/cycle. But ... in June, something happened that changed the cycle. June's cycle move took the VIX way above its upper concentric circle band, and this was a huge over reaction. Since then, the opposite happened. The VIX has now broken through the bottom of the concentric circle's support level. You have to think that since the bottom concentric circle has been such an important support level for almost 3 years, and that it bounced off of this support a total of 11 out of 11 times without error, that ... quite possibly, this is another over reaction like last June's. So, has the concentric cycle pattern become extinct? Or, will it re-establish itself? The Fed has played a part in the current departure from this long term cycle pattern and breaking through the bottom. How? By pumping in a lot of M3 liquidity in the banks, and economy. This attempt to offset a bust in the home building sector has resulted in an over compensation of liquidity that is effecting the markets. And, large increases in Liquidity fuels the market to the upside. Until this liquidity contracts, the result will be a market rising with exuberance.THE MARKET IS SHORT TERM OVERBOUGHT ~$~ ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY ~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 The Gold Bubble popped at $850 in 1980, the Japanese Nikkei Bubble popped at 39,000 in 1990 and the U.S. NASDAQ-led bubble popped at 5,000 in 2000. There have been many bubbles popped in market history, typically quantified by accelerating rates of change and heightened levels of awareness as they reach their peak, only to come crashing back to reality after the pin and balloon consummate their inevitable relationship. Chart shows an overlay of the gold and Japanese cycles moved forward in time to match the more recent NASDAQ Composite Cycle, lined up from the bubble peaks. The blowing up and bursting of a bubble leads to an initial crash rebound ("ICR") that seems to put in a ceiling that repels subsequent rallies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 Is the NASDAQ Bubble Shadow ,about to be over long term ? THE NASDAQ SHORT TERM IS OVERBOUGHT ~$~ all disclaimers apply ~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 Google (GOOG) posted their results about three seconds after the market closed today, and they were fantastic. After-hours trading has the stock trading about 30 points higher than the close. Let's face it, Google is a money machine. ~$~ ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY ~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 GOOG ~$~ ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY ~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Ian McAvity, the author of Toronto based Deliberations kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=162 ,who is quoted in the chart, considers this is a strategically important point in the Nasdaq. He predicts a top of 2,200 (+/-10%) which would cap the Nasdaq for the next decade or two.HE'S RIGHT AND WRONG AFTER BUBBLES THE PRICE WILL LAY LOW ,IAN McAVITY JUST GUESSED TO LONG>>>A PERIOD, BUT CLOSE! DO NOT BUY BUBBLES, OR THE NEAR BACK SIDE, OF BUBBLES,{ IE >OIL,AN GOLDS, CURRNET CASE,} The S&P is a leading indicator of the economy, 6 months to a year ,out into the future an it's raging, short term overbought, long term in good shape, but shhhhhh the NASDAQ broke 2328 resistance, and is sneaking up on !YOU!!! ~$~ ALL DISCLAIMERS APPLY ~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted November 22, 2006 Author Share Posted November 22, 2006 ANOTHER BUBBLE!!! found a graph showing the distribution of wealth in the U.S. in the various strata. This is a somewhat outdated graph, but it's pretty close. As you can see, the top 1% has about a third of the wealth.imagine ~~IF YOU WILL~~ the envy of the superrich will morph into contempt,America is too centrist and capitalist a nation for it to go anywhere extreme. But the soil is pretty fertile for the masses to want some kind of reversal of national fortunes, be it in the form of confiscatory taxes or some other animal. HAPPY TURKEYDAY!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted November 22, 2006 Author Share Posted November 22, 2006 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarence Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 http://forums.klipsch.com/forums/thread/803347.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted November 25, 2006 Share Posted November 25, 2006 ANOTHER BUBBLE!!! found a graph showing the distribution of wealth in the U.S. in the various strata. This is a somewhat outdated graph, but it's pretty close. As you can see, the top 1% has about a third of the wealth.imagine ~~IF YOU WILL~~ the envy of the superrich will morph into contempt,America is too centrist and capitalist a nation for it to go anywhere extreme. But the soil is pretty fertile for the masses to want some kind of reversal of national fortunes, be it in the form of confiscatory taxes or some other animal. HAPPY TURKEYDAY!!! I think the animal most US citizens are interested in is a stop to the slide in real wages and a pension they can count on. Is it a bubble or just normal market volatility? The S&P is not trading at anywhere near the P/E's of the last bubble, nor have the returns been outside of historical standard deviations, although it is near the outside edge of that measure for the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted December 20, 2006 Author Share Posted December 20, 2006 Medicare gap particularly interesting. ever seen a y-axis before which measures "billions" of dollars with figures such as $16,000 (e.g. Sixteen Thousand Billion - - otherwise known as Sixteen Trillion)financial disasters that no one seems to care about, the Financial Report of the United States Government was issued recently. It's nearly 200 pages were BROKE!!! good luck on pensions an such http://fms.treas.gov/fr/06frusg/06frusg.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted December 20, 2006 Author Share Posted December 20, 2006 GOOG adrift at 485 an just to sexy GOOG seems to be in a quagmire around $485. If their quarterly earnings aren't sensational, that could be the catalyst for a nice move down. There is nothing terribly clean about this chart. The only thing it tells us is that the explosion up to $500 has abated. ~$~ all disclaimers apply~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted December 20, 2006 Author Share Posted December 20, 2006 Not so sexy an beat up, an thats good GATEWAY INC (GTW.NY) ~$~ all disclaimers apply ~$~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnyholiday Posted December 20, 2006 Author Share Posted December 20, 2006 Fun with fibs Here's a much longer view at the market, this via the S&P 100 ($OEX) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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