End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[dtel's wife]

Tag, you're it now.

[CECAA850]

GFDL has it heading right for me. @$%**%!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Runnin' late this morning.....

HURRICANE DEAN: The models are still showing a broad curve into the Gulf. Forum members in Texas and southwest Louisiana need to watch this carefully:

DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS are SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT COULD REMAIN STRONGER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT - 1:00 PM Today
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT - 1:00 AM Friday morning
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT - 1:00 PM Friday Afternoon
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT - 1:00 AM Saturday Morning
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT - 1:00 PM Saturday Afternoon
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT (**** 144 MILES PER HOUR ***) 1:00 AM Sunday Morning as it hits the Yucatan or passes through the Channel.
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

HURRICANE DEAN "CONE OF DEATH"

[dtel's wife]

CECA,

GFDL has been steadily "nudging" this monster in your/our direction.....glad to see you joined the rest of the class![]

BTW, local forecasters are now showing three scenarios....one likely scenario....a low pressure area will shift over Mexico, while the high pressure anticipated to build over southeastern Louisiana, MS, AL will not build as far west as expected....thus allowing Dean to ride the middle straight up to LA/MS coastal area![] I think Groomlake hinted at this scenario in a post directed to me yesterday or the day before!

Another scenario...it continues it's westward path....this is doubtful among local forecasters.

Lastly....CECA you know the storyline on this one!

[dtel's wife]

"Runnin' late this morning....."

Ahhh....the teacher is "runnin' late"....I thought you were either "snoring or snowed"....wasn't sure which one....probably a little of both!

[CECAA850]

The one thing that I've found to be true in my years of watching these buggars is the fact that all of these monsters never hit the landfall target that they are first projected to hit. Maybe if it targets me now, by the time it actually hits, it'll be far away.

[dtel's wife]

I hope it's not "far away"....as in this way!

Honestly, I wouldn't wish a CAT 2 or larger storm on anyone.....been there....done that.....

I've lived in this area all my life....was five or six years old living in Harahan, LA, (outskirts of New Orleans) when Betsy hit....I remember wading through chest deep water to get to higher ground.....

lived in Slidell, LA when Camille hit MS Gulf Coast....we were on "the good side of the storm"....I vividly recall windows and doors rattling....waiting for them to blow out....water rising to within one inch of entering my parent's home (susbsequently flooded during Katrina).....mobile home in our neighborhood literally turned inside out.

lived in St. Bernard when Juan and other CAT 2 and lower storms ravaged lower St. Bernard and dtel went out in a boat after the eye had passed to bring milk, diapers and food to friends in lower St. Bernard, because they couldn't get out. Waiting, watching and wondering if dtel would get back home safely.

lived in Picayune during Jorge....didn't evacuate....heard wind roaring and rattling windows

evacuated for another storm and stayed in TN for a week while a second storm brewed in the Gulf.

evacuated for Katrina, watching the news coverage during and after the eye came ashore, people being rescued from rooftops for Pete's sake, dead bodies floating in water and blocks and blocks of houses blown off their foundations for miles and miles...the scouting trip back home....two hours away from home downed lines, roofs gone. lines at gasoline stations miles and miles long....one lane on interstate barely passable because of downed trees and power lines....making it home and seeing how blessed we were that our house was still standing while our neighbors roof was ripped off and blown away...our poor neighbor who sent his family away but stayed behind said he was so scared he put his son's motorcycle helmet on and buried himself under a mattress in the bathtub. The three men of our house sleeping with loaded guns at our bedside because of insane looters....no electricity for weeks....mile long lines for bags of ice....bathing in pond water to ration drinking water....rationing gasoline for the generator....less than a pint a day to watch more newscasts with anchors sitting in a room with a single camera....apologizing to each other for "smelling bad" because they had no facilities to bathe, all the while trying to stand brave in the face of reporting death and unsurpassed destruction.

And dtel wonders why I "freak out" when a major storm even comes close to entering the Gulf!

I just wish these monsters would die at sea and not cause the suffering I have seen in my lifetime. I have to say....as I make this post I am wondering why I haven't put my foot down and moved my family away from here???? Living year to year running from "the big ones" and wondering, "Is this going to be the one that wipes our home off the face of the map?"

I must be crazy![*-)]

[dtel's wife]

[dtel's wife]

I think this is the latest updated tracks. Groomlake is late for class so I took the liberty of posting this for him in his absence. Looks like the forecast models keep shifting this thing our direction CECA!

[dtel's wife]

000

WTNT44 KNHC 171457

TCDAT4

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THE CENTER OF DEAN CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING BETWEEN

ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE AS INDICATED BY THE MARTINIQUE RADAR. AT

0842 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MARTINIQUE REPORTED

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE

PLANE REACHED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964

MB...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND A CLOSED EYEWALL. THE

CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH

PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST

VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. BOTH SATELLITE PRESENTATION

AND DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE PLANE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF

90 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING

SINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE

CARIBBEAN. DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT

REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE

HIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF

SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

THE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG

RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN

BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE

ONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A

SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A

SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.

THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE

YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO

AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT

SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN

TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.6N 62.6W 90 KT

12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W 100 KT

24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W 105 KT

36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W 110 KT

48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W 120 KT

72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 130 KT

96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W 105 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Groomlakearea51]

Great Job dtel's wife!! I've been doing grants and financials all day and won't be able to sit down and look at this until later this afternoon. But, here's the Cone of Death......

[dtel's wife]

Based on my limited knowledge of the forecasting computers I would say the Texas/Louisiana state line and 100 miles or so either side should really start making some serious preliminary plans.

Dean could easily stay on its westward course, but two of the most reliable models are indicating Houston/Beaumont as viable targets!

Groomlake, we really look forward to seeing you back in the teaching position this afternoon!

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the interesting part, now that it gets closer, This is what everyone in the "Cone of Death" needs to watch:

Note the radius of wind speeds and how far they extend out from wherever the center is. That becomes important for anyone with that radius.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT; ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W (THAT'S TONIGHT AT 7:00 PM)
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W (THAT'S TOMORROW (FRIDAY) AT 7:00 AM)
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W (THAT'S FRIDAY NIGHT AT 7:00 PM)
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W (THAT'S SATURDAY MORNING AT 7:00 AM)
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

SATURDAY MORNING, 20 AUGUST AT 7:00 AM; ESTIMATED LOCATION AT 19.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 82.0 DEGREES WEST (OFFSHORE ABOUT 50-60 MILES SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN/ CAYMAN ISLANDS AREA.
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT (150 MILES PER HOURS, WITH GUSTS TO 184 MILES PER HOUR.....)

50 KT WINDS EXTEND OUT 80 MILES NE 50 MILES SE 50 MILES SW 80 MILES NW.

THIS MEANS 60 MILE PER HOUR WINDS EXTEND OUT 80 MILES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STORM CENTER.

34 KT EXTEND OUT 50 MILES NE 100 MILES SE 80 MILES SW 150 MILES NW.

THIS MEANS 39-40 MILE PER HOUR WINDS EXTEND OUT 150 MILES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STORM CENTER, AND 100 MILES ON THE SOUTH SIDE.

WHEN IT GETS IN THE GULF (AS BELOW PREDICTION GRAPHIC), ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO BE 105 KNOTS (121 MPH) WITH GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS (150 MILES PER HOUR)

[CECAA850]

GFDL is now showing the New Orleans area!!! It changes pretty quickly. Still all bets are off till it's in the Gulf.

[dtel's wife]

This is the same one I posted earlier!!!

How did I miss that![]

[Groomlakearea51]

Well, got home, got the kids doing what they were supposed to have done all day. Good Lord knows!! School starts on Monday and I cannot wait to have them gainfully employed... It's Dean and Miller time (well a Sam Adams while I pile through the data sets...)

In any event. Here's the latest on Dean: Of note is that "pesky" GFDL track which should be making everyone in New Orleans nervous. Reason; The strongest part of ant hurricane is the NE quadrant (and the greatest storm surge...).

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT (That's 8:00 PM Eastern Standard Time). SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EYE FEATURE... NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

"Ye Olde Cone of Death"....

[dtel's wife]

WHAT....That's it.....you skip on your class ALL DAY and that's all you have to say? Geez......

On a more serious note....I did not realize until an hour or two ago that the GFDL model had Dean headed just west of New Orleans....and I posted that graph in your absence this morning.

Glad you could join us for a little while!

And BTW if you read the posts you missed while you were out you will see a new student has joined our class....Mdeneen....how cool is that!

[dtel's wife]

Groomlake said "Hopefully, the GFDL track path past day four is not in agreement with everyone else. We'll have a very good idea on this by Sunday. Hopefully, it will be south of, rather than on top of Jamaica."

Well....the official track has it right back over Jamaica!