Hurricane Season - 2008

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's a good (if a little confusing at first) graphic. It shows the 850 Mb streamlines and gives a good "picture", and a very simplified explanation as to why Ike is tracking as it does. The reason Florida (except the lower Keys) are not a target is because the high pressure area over the Atlantic extends just enough over the peninsula to steer Ike west/west-north west. You can also see the high pressure area in the Gulf and the "gap" between the two areas. This is why it could turn north (run the ridge between the high zones), or go further west (ride the botom edge of the Gulf pressure ridge).

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's better colored picture of that situation (current)

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's what happens in 24 hours... The high in the Gulf begins to lift and because there is no well defined ridge to follow, the tracks out at day 5 get wide. And at that point, is why the NHC estimate track is fairly "straight".

[Groomlakearea51]

By the 10th, however, it could head into the "gap" and that's why as far east as the Florida Panhandle is also in danger. This situation happened with Ivan.

[Groomlakearea51]

By the 11th (Day-4 out and 96 hours), since the high in the US moves east, it "opens" up in front of Ike, and since there's nothing of significance that could steer or block the trajectory, it allows Ike to potentially remain on the straight track projected while in the middle of the Gulf. But.... Because there is some "pressure ridging" from north-east to south west, that's why the NHC track tends to the "left", or west of New Orleans and more towards the Texas coastline. At this moment in time anyone in Houston - Galveston (and east to the LA border) should pay very close attention.

[Groomlakearea51]

Supporting my analysis.... Here's what NHC shows as of the previous graphic from early this morning.

[Groomlakearea51]

Being about 11:00 AM (and taking a break from moving speakers around....), we now read what the NHC says. Everyone must understand that the NHC is extremely cautious in it's estimates and "conservative" when it comes to making track predictions.

WTNT44 KNHC 071431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS... EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER... ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH... RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT

[Dflip]

5 am update before I head off to school. The Galveston area, 100 miles either way looks to be in play, although as Groom said above, there is still a margin for error five or six days out. Ike will be a tropical storm when it leaves Cuba having lost a lot of strength, but will gain back enough in the gulf to be a cat 3, 115 mph hurricane before it makes landfall again.

[Dflip]

The military point of view.

[Dflip]

Computer projections:

[Dflip]

1. THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT AND
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION...HOWEVER THEY ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
Josephine is still tracking towards the leeward islands, instead of heading north into the gulf stream. It could still develop.

[dtel's wife]

Groomy and Dflip:

Thanks for keeping us all updated.

Needless to say Ike is testing our patience down here.

Thankfully the dtel gang had already made plans to visit Arkansas later in the week. Our reservations have already been made.

Dtel's aunt informed us last night hotel availability is hard to come in most areas north for this weekend.

Thanks again for all the updates.

[Groomlakearea51]

Ike is pounding Cuba..... Here's the early morning IR satellite photo.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the streamlines 96 hours out (12 Sep)

[Groomlakearea51]

Josephine does have some potential, and if it re-develops, then it's track would probably be similar to Hanna, but possibly without the looping. Hard to say at this moment and it's not being heavily analysed, lotsa' computer model track runs, etc. Here's the MILSAT visible image from this morning.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the track models:

[dtel's wife]

Groomy, looks like an opening where Ike could go right over the LA/MS border, or am I reading the "streamlines" incorrectly?

[CECAA850]

Ike looks like it's heading straight for my living room[].

[Groomlakearea51]

Dtel's (Christy & Eldon and the "gang") should be ok for the moment with Josephine. Ike is problematic because the longer it hangs up over Cuba, the slower it moves, and that means it's tracks are much more difficult to predict (remember Hanna!!!). Faster is better in some ways; more predictable track, generally smaller storm. Downside? small & fast can also mean very compact & powerful storm. That's what caught them off guard down here with Andrew.

There are a couple of "waves", but they are in the southern areas running west (see below graphic)

[Groomlakearea51]

Groomy, looks like an opening where Ike could go right over the LA/MS border, or am I reading the "streamlines" incorrectly?

Not very likely at all; the "streamlines" show that it's following along the SW-NE ridge lines and the surface analysis shows the high pressure areas that will keep it out of MS/LA area.