Hurricane Season - 2008

[Groomlakearea51]

Actually, by looking at these projections, things coming from Africa will likely head due west towards Cuba and the Caribbean until the situation changes.

[Groomlakearea51]

All those folks sitting at the NHC in Miami use the following models to make their predictions. E = early, L = late, track = track, and int = intensity.

Name/Description	ATCF ID	Type	Timeliness (E/L)	Parameters
Official NHC forecast	OFCL			Trk, Int
NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model	GFDL	Multi-layer regional dynamical	L	Trk, Int
NWS/ Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF)	HWRF	Mutlti-layer regional dynamical	L	Trk, Int
NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS)	GFSO	Multi-layer global dynamical	L	Trk, Int
National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)	AEMN	Consensus	L	Trk, Int
United Kingdom Met Office model (UKMET)	UKM	Multi-layer global dynamical	L	Trk, Int
Navy Operational Global Prediction System (NOGAPS)	NGPS	Multi-layer global dynamical	L	Trk, Int
Navy version of GFDL	GFDN	Multi-layer regional dynamical	L	Trk, Int
Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale Model	CMC	Multi-level global dynamical	L	Trk, Int
European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Model	EMX	Multi-layer global dynamical	L	Trk, Int
Beta and advection model (shallow layer)	BAMS	Single-layer trajectory	E	Trk
Beta and advection model (medium layer)	BAMM	Single-layer trajectory	E	Trk
Beta and advection model (deep layer)	BAMD	Single-layer trajectory	E	Trk
Limited area barotropic model	LBAR	Single-layer regional dynamical	E	Trk
NHC98 (Atlantic)	A98E	Statistical-dynamical	E	Trk
NHC91 (Pacific)	P91E	Statistical-dynamical	E	Trk
CLIPER5 (Climatology and Persistence model)	CLP5	Statistical (baseline)	E	Trk
SHIFOR5 (Climatology and Persistence model)	SHF5	Statistical (baseline)	E	Int
Decay-SHIFOR5 (Climatology and Persistence model)	DSF5	Statistical (baseline)	E	Int
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)	SHIP	Statistical-dynamical	E	Int
SHIPS with inland decay	DSHP	Statistical-dynamical	E	Int
Previous cycle OFCL, adjusted	OFCI	Interpolated	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle GFDL, adjusted	GFDI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle GFDL, adjusted using a variable intensity offset correction that is a function of forecast time.	GHMI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted	HWFI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle GFS, adjusted	GFSI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle UKM, adjusted	UKMI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle NGPS, adjusted	NGPI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle GFDN, adjusted	GFNI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Previous cycle EMX, adjusted	EMXI	Interpolated-dynamical	E	Trk, Int
Average of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, and GFSI	GUNA	Consensus	E	Trk
Version of GUNA corrected for model biases	CGUN	Corrected consensus	E	Trk
Previous cycle AEMN, adjusted	AEMI	Consensus	E	Trk, Int
Average of at least 2 of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, GFSI, and GFNI	CONU	Consensus	E	Trk
Version of CONU corrected for model biases	CCON	Corrected consensus	E	Trk
Average of GHMI and DSHP	ICON	Consensus	E	Int
FSU Super-ensemble	FSSE	Corrected consensus	E	Trk, Int

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the 11:00 estimate from NHC;

WTNT44 KNHC 091452
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS... BUT THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT. SFMR DATA SEEM TO SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLYWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT... RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL GULF... AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN... WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL WITH IKE THUS FAR... AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING... AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF... WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND

[Groomlakearea51]

According to NHC, at least at this moment in time, the track aims at Corpus Christi, or possibly south of CC.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the spaghetti's:

[Groomlakearea51]

When looking at the spaghetti stuff, you see the CLP5 track which takes it to New Orleans. Some discussion as to why that CLP5 model is not a good "panic" track to ponder.... The CLIPER5 (CLP5) is a statistical track prediction model based on climatology and persistence. It consists of a set of equations that separately predict future zonal (east-west) and meridional (north-south) movements of a tropical cyclone at 12-hr intervals out to 72 hrs. Because it only predicts to 72 hours, that's why it just continues to "curve" it around after 72 hours.

[Groomlakearea51]

One of the reasons I post the "NOGAPS" 850mb isotach (streamlines) pretty pictures is because....

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)

The NOGAPS model is a global spectral model with triangular truncation at 239 waves (approximately 55 km horizontal grid spacing) with 30 vertical levels (T239L30). The NOGAPS uses a hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate system. This configuration results in approximately six terrain-following sigma levels below 850 mb and the remaining 24 levels occurring above 850 mb at near-pressure surfaces. The NOGAPS time step is five minutes, but is reduced if necessary to prevent numerical instability associated with fast-moving weather features. The NOGAPS model uses a 3-D VAR analysis scheme. The model is run out to 180 hours at each of the synoptic times (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z). The NOGAPS model utilizes the Emanuel convective parameterization scheme with non-precipitating convective mixing based on the Tiedtke method. Like other global models, the NOGAPS model cannot provide very skillful intensity forecasts but can provide skillful track forecasts.

I have found that by looking at the NOGAPS isotachs every 6 hours when it looks like my hovel is in the line of fire, I can often figure out what's going to happen before the Weather Channel folks will grow some "coj*nes" and tell everyone the truth about what the risks are.

The NHC's problem is that they absolutely do not want the public to look at (a) model tracks, or ( all of the NOGAPS steering current graphics. Here's their attitude:

The National Hurricane Center does not generate a graphic of the guidance models it uses to produce its forecasts. Such graphics have the potential to confuse users and to undermine the effectiveness of NHC official tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings. NHC's Tropical Cyclone Discussion product, issued with each advisory package, contains a description of the reasoning behind the official forecast, including discussion of the specific models considered in the preparation of the official forecast. Some users may desire more information on the characteristics of these models, and for their benefit we have prepared a Technical Model Summary.

Is that a good attitude? Maybe... maybe not..., but I would bet that for the great unwashed masses gathered about the TV as a storm approaches, and the nice deep voiced weather man messes up and shows the really weird spaghettis, they would go bug crazy because the UKMET shows a track right across their trailer park..... So I guess I would have to sympathize in that regard.

Personally, more info (especially if it sort of gives some simple explanation) is better. Besides, with the meds I have to take to remain sane during the hurricane season, I just like pretty colors.....[:|][]

[Groomlakearea51]

The MILTRACK says Ingleside is where it will "arrive".....

[Dflip]

Ingleside is just east of Corpus Christi and from looking at the track it now turns right/north towards the coast. A change from late yesterday, or even early this morning. The 5 pm outlook has it between Corpus Christi and Port O'Connor. It still sounds somewhat fluid for the next day or two. First it went west and south, and now it is going north and east, at least as far as landfall. The good news is that it is scheduled to hit Matagorda Island and then head inland into an area with a smaller population.

[dtel's wife]

Dflip,

We have noticed the slow north/northeast trend in the track between yesterday and today. I'm not overly concerned, but the changes in the track have not gone unnoticed by folks in this area. Besides, the NHC is a lot more accurate at three days than five days. Right????[*-)]

Just kidding, I know they are more accurate at three days out, but I sure get nervous when they change the track more our way![]

[Groomlakearea51]

Ike's possible turn to the north may be slight, but it will depend on the steering current. The bad thing about a "glancing" blow or coming in at an angle is that because more of the east/north part of the storm remains over water longer, they tend to dump more rain. In any event, here's this morning's NHC discussion.

WTNT44 KNHC 100848
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75 KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER... THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER... THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER... THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the Ike primary track and "Cone of Death"

[Groomlakearea51]

This morning's MILTRACK

[Groomlakearea51]

This morning's MILSAT IR image

[Groomlakearea51]

Isotach streamlines at 36 hours

[Groomlakearea51]

And the streamlines for 72 hours.

For dtel's wife... Why do they always run west and try to turn north....? A result from Coriolis effect - rotating sphere - the atmosphere is "dragged" as it rotates, with the speed of the earth relative to the atmosphere much higher at the equator. This results the general clockwise rotating effect in the north Atlantic brings them west. That clockwise motion results in the winds in the southern north Atlantic to run west. Fill up your tub and stick your finger in it and run from left to right (same direction as the earth rotation), and you will see the same effect as seen at the equator.

The higher latitude, the more the northerly and subsequently to the east they try to turn. Different layers move at different speeds and combined with a low pressure system ("wave") can cause the counterclockwise rotation that is the hall mark of the storms. The most visible effect of the Coriolis effect is the outlying "bands" (250-350 miles away) often move in an opposite direction from counter clockwise rotation of the storm itself. This effect is why in the continental US, fronts and storms generally move from west/ northwest to east/ southeast. The Florida prevailing winds are, however, from the east/ southeast because we are in the general path of the tradewind currents coming from Africa/ southern Europe.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's an interesting pretty picture.... The forecast precipitation levels at 72 hours. Also shows the pressure levels (mB)

[Groomlakearea51]

And the same at 84 hours

[Groomlakearea51]

And "big picture" for 96 hours.

[Groomlakearea51]

Almost forgot.... Ike's spaghetti's for this morning.......