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Hurricane Season - 2008


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Thankee, Jeffirs...

29.26, 47mph NE. Finally getting a bit of rain, about .12 in the past 10:00. I suppose she's getting serious. Maybe I should run down to the Hilton on Clear Lake and join the media party...

Dave

PS-315,000 w/o power now. Which post will be my last???

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You and Geraldo hanging in there>>>

Keep your head down and your chin up.

Thank you, sir. 29.20, 49mph N. .25" of rain. Can't believe I still have power...

Dave

PS-The eye is REALLY big. At the moment, it looks like it will come right across here in a few hours and will take a couple of hours to get past. Should be very fascinating when the stars come out and it becomes very calm. Hopefully, by the time the S side of the storm returns it will be weakened and I can go to bed.

PPS-Lightning now and the wind is getting more serious. 58mph gusts. Also had another power blip. This PC is on a UPS so I'll probably get a post or so off before shutting it down. Then I'll try to get back on with the laptop if cable stays up. Most channels are gone due to loss of satillite signal already, but the net is obviously still here.

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Good luck to you Dave. Please keep us updated (if you can) of your situation.

I can and will. [8-|]

Running my wireless and VOIP phone router off UPS. I'm good as long as the cable stays up. I really don't have any experience with that, so we'll see.

It's gonna get hot in here pretty quick. I'll keep these reports to once an hour to preserve battery power but it's contact with you guys that keep my cool.

Dave

PS-The old joke about having to watch TV by candelight? This post was done by a kerosene lamp.

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Here's the NHC discussion as to what's going on:

WTNT44 KNHC 130854
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
JUST AFTER 0700 UTC. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
952 MB. THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN...
SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IKE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11. IKE IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD
SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE
CENTER. WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.7N 95.0W 95 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

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Here's the NHC discussion on the other two items in the Atlantic.....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IKE...LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS LIMITED AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY... IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.


two_atl.gif

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Well The bunker survived there are trees down and debris all over the place. I personaly know at least three people up here that have trees in there house. The friends I stay with while in Houston have a 60 foot pine laying across there garage. The Tahoe and Jeep are stuck inside. They said they cannot tell the extent of the damage on the Tahoe but the Jeep seems to be ok. Another friend has a brother that is a lineman up in PA and his company sent a large crew this way yesterday. Its going to be a long hot time before power is back on. Steve

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Good news...............

I just got off the phone with Dave's wife (his phone number wasn't hard to find) and they are ok. Winds reached 100mph at their house, and they have a few roof leaks, but no flooding reached the house, and there were no broken windows. She said the speakers and associated equipment fared well. She asked me to post this message to the forum, and thanks everyone for their concern. [:D]

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