Groomlakearea51 Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 And now for Alex.... I had a dog named Alex once.... pi*sed on everything.... TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT. THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN- CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT... ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 The cones of death graphic..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 The Eye Of Sauron graphic.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 Another view.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 And the road map to Dave and Carl's neck of the woods.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 26, 2010 Share Posted June 26, 2010 Actually, that one is reassuring compared to the Houston Communist map, which shows the cone centered on Lavaca Bay. Main issue with this one is that it has formed WAY early. I haven't looked up the history, but September is the month for the vast majority of Texas landfalls. Unless this is a fluke it could bode very ill for the season. In the short term, however, it could be a good thing as a tropical storm, with the main downside being if it should move easterly enough to pick up Macondo oil and blow it ashore. Otherwise, it might just bring us some much needed rain and cool. This has been a VERY hot June even by Houston standards. Guess we'll have a better idea by Wednesday or so. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 In keeping with the NHC's "Let's not panic the masses until it's too late" theory of releasing information to the public.... Alex is now predicted to possibly achieve "major" status. Here's this morning's lengthy discussion from the NHC. WTNT41 KNHC 270857 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OFALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL... HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD... WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE. BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.3N 89.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.2N 91.9W 40 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 92.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.6N 95.5W 75 KT96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.2N 97.4W 85 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 99.7W 30 KT...INLAND Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 They are not very concerned with the system off the Leewards at the moment. The track models are indicating that it will just head out to sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 The big picture... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 MILTRACK version. Note that the radius arcs relate to the wind speed radius. The inner arcs are hurricane speed radius (>73 mph); the outer arc is TS speed (>34 mph). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 27, 2010 Share Posted June 27, 2010 Looks like we'll be hard pressed even to get any rain out of it... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 27, 2010 Author Share Posted June 27, 2010 Got the same problem here. Monsoon season started off great, but the great sounth Florida afternoon showers are just too spotty and things are drying out yet again. I could take a TS here as long as it's..... a TS and runs through and dumps 6-8" as the Lake and everything else needs the water. It's Cat-2+ hurricanes that I'm afraid of at the moment. Or a slow mover strong Cat-1 like 2004's Frances that was the size of Texas and took 36 hours to run it's happy fat eyewall over my house.... After about 12 hours, things start to fall off and things start to come apart...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 27, 2010 Share Posted June 27, 2010 Looks to be well south of us for sure. I got no problem with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted June 27, 2010 Share Posted June 27, 2010 Geez, I'm really late to the mix this year. I wasn't expecting anything this early. We've had some unique weather in the area around Toronto in the past week: tornado, earthquake, thunderstorms, etc..., plus the G 20 conference. I've been watching the demonstrations the last two days and it could be worse, but... there is a group that are willing to break windows, burn police cars and cause trouble. I will be able to follow the hurricanes more once school ends on the 30th, then summer holidays starts. The good part of my job. Thank you all for your previous updates. At the moment, Mexico looks like it's the target for Alex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted June 28, 2010 Share Posted June 28, 2010 4 a.m. projection. 400 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010 ...ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 91.6W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 28, 2010 Share Posted June 28, 2010 Line of thunderstorms coming in from the Gulf this AM. From what I've seen from the satellites it appears to be related to Alex. Maybe we'll get a bit of rain from him. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 28, 2010 Author Share Posted June 28, 2010 They are predicting additional strengthening: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.7N 91.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.3N 91.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 22.4N 93.6W 75 KT48HR VT 30/0600Z 23.3N 94.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 24.6N 97.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.6N 99.2W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 101.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 28, 2010 Author Share Posted June 28, 2010 The latest graphic and what it will be at those points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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